Feyenoord won 2 of the last 5LDDWW2nd1–1Fortuna Sittard won 1 of the last 5DDWDD7th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Feyenoord
Fortuna Sittard
15
Shots
11
6
Shots on target
3
6
Corners
1
6
Fouls
13
0
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
5
Offsides
0
730
Passes
324
69%
Possession %
31%
2.95
xG
0.96
62%
19%
19%
1 · FeyenoordXFortuna Sittard · 2
Over 1.5
90%
Over 2.5
73%
Over 3.5
52%
Both score
68%
Model pick
Feyenoord 62%
Likely score
2-1 9%
Expected goals
2.46 – 1.33
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Feyenoord
61.9%
1.61
1.19 Betano
84.0%
-22.1
Match result
Draw
19.1%
5.23
9.00 William Hill
11.1%
+8.0
Match result
Fortuna Sittard
19.0%
5.28
17.00 BetVictor
5.9%
+13.1
Total goals
Over 1.5
89.6%
1.12
1.08 Betano
92.6%
-3.0
Total goals
Under 1.5
10.4%
9.58
10.00 Bet365
10.0%
+0.4
Total goals
Over 2.5
73.0%
1.37
1.29 Betano
77.5%
-4.5
Total goals
Under 2.5
27.0%
3.70
4.10 Betfair
24.4%
+2.6
Total goals
Over 3.5
52.5%
1.91
1.67 Betano
59.9%
-7.4
Total goals
Under 3.5
47.5%
2.10
2.25 Betano
44.4%
+3.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
67.6%
1.48
1.82 Betano
54.9%
+12.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
32.4%
3.09
2.10 Betfair
47.6%
-15.3
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Feyenoord favoured against Fortuna Sittard
Our model makes Feyenoord 62% to win this Eredivisie fixture, with the draw at 19% and Fortuna Sittard at 19%. The goal projection is 2.46 for Feyenoord against 1.33 for Fortuna Sittard — a commanding edge to Feyenoord on expected output. A combined 3.79 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 73% and both teams to score at 68%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Feyenoord is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 38% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Feyenoord
Metric
Fortuna Sittard
2.80 (better)
Goals scored
1.40
1.20 (better)
Goals conceded
1.80
2.19 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
0.83
—
Big chances *
—
6.80 (better)
Shots on target
3.75
16.80 (better)
Total shots
11.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
6.00 (better)
Corners
2.75
49.8 (better)
Possession %
39.3
495 (better)
Passes
360
—
Tackles
—
11.60
Fouls
8.50 (better)
1.00 (better)
Offsides
2.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.20
Yellow cards
1.00 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Feyenoord v 
Fortuna Sittard