Groningen v Sparta Rotterdam

9th2–312th

15:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Groningen		Sparta Rotterdam
20	Shots	8
10	Shots on target	4
2	Corners	7
8	Fouls	14
1	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	3
504	Passes	348
59%	Possession %	41%
2.68	xG	2.46

Over 1.5: 88%
Over 2.5: 69%
Over 3.5: 48%
Both score: 68%

Model pick: Groningen 51%
Likely score: 1-1 9%
Expected goals: 2.10 – 1.48

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Over 3.5	48.0%	2.08	2.18 Betano	45.9%	+2.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	52.0%	1.93	1.78 Betano	56.2%	-4.2
Match result	Groningen	51.4%	1.95	1.80 Betano	55.6%	-4.2
Match result	Draw	21.9%	4.57	4.35 Betano	23.0%	-1.1
Match result	Sparta Rotterdam	26.7%	3.74	4.25 Betano	23.5%	+3.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	87.7%	1.14	1.14 Betano	87.7%	-0.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	12.3%	8.10	6.50 Betfair	15.4%	-3.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	69.4%	1.44	1.45 Betano	69.0%	+0.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	30.6%	3.26	2.88 Bet365	34.7%	-4.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	68.2%	1.47	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	+1.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	31.8%	3.15	2.75 Betfair	36.4%	-4.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Groningen favoured against Sparta Rotterdam

Our model makes Groningen 51% to win this Eredivisie fixture, with the draw at 22% and Sparta Rotterdam at 27%. The goal projection is 2.10 for Groningen against 1.48 for Sparta Rotterdam — a substantial edge to Groningen on expected output. A combined 3.58 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 69% and both teams to score at 68%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 9%; 2-1 9%; 2-2 7%; 1-2 6%; 3-1 6%

This season

Season records for Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam
Groningen		Sparta Rotterdam
12	Played	12
4-3-5	W-D-L	3-3-6
1.25	Pts / game	1.00
2.42	Goals for / game	1.75
2.33	Goals against / game	2.42
92%	Over 2.5	92%
92%	BTTS	83%
8%	Clean sheets	0%
0%	Failed to score	17%
2-1-3	Home record	1-2-3
2-2-2	Away record	2-1-3
L2	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Groningen · Sparta Rotterdam

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.6	Shots	15.0
6.4	Shots on target	6.2
3.4	Corners	6.0
2.20	Cards	2.20
11.4	Fouls	11.6
50	Possession %	44
2.29	xG	2.16
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.0	Shots	15.8
6.2	Shots on target	6.2
6.4	Corners	4.6
1.20	Cards	1.60
12.2	Fouls	8.8
50	Possession %	56
2.58	xG	1.67
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Groningen	Metric	Sparta Rotterdam
2.60 (better)	Goals scored	1.80
1.80 (better)	Goals conceded	3.00
1.61	Expected goals (xG)	2.24 (better)
	Big chances
5.40	Shots on target	6.00 (better)
14.40	Total shots	16.40 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.20	Corners	6.40 (better)
49.0 (better)	Possession %	42.6
433 (better)	Passes	361
	Tackles
9.20	Fouls	9.20
1.00	Offsides	0.67 (better)
	Throw-ins
0.80 (better)	Yellow cards	2.00
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Groningen wins: 0
Draws: 0
Sparta Rotterdam wins: 4
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 50%

Groningen v Sparta Rotterdam2–32026-11-01
Sparta Rotterdam v Groningen2–02026-01-31
Sparta Rotterdam v Groningen5–22025-10-30
Groningen v Sparta Rotterdam0–22025-10-19

Eredivisie table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	PSV Eindhoven	12	8	2	2	+25	26	PSV Eindhoven won 3 of the last 5
2	Feyenoord	12	7	4	1	+19	25	Feyenoord won 2 of the last 5
3	Ajax	12	7	4	1	+17	25	Ajax won 3 of the last 5
4	Twente	12	7	3	2	+18	24	Twente won 2 of the last 5
5	AZ Alkmaar	12	7	2	3	+8	23	AZ Alkmaar won 1 of the last 5
6	Heerenveen	12	6	3	3	+8	21	Heerenveen won 4 of the last 5
7	Fortuna Sittard	12	5	5	2	0	20	Fortuna Sittard won 1 of the last 5
8	GO Ahead Eagles	12	4	5	3	-3	17	GO Ahead Eagles won 2 of the last 5
9	Groningen	12	4	3	5	+1	15	Groningen won 1 of the last 5
10	Cambuur	12	4	3	5	-2	15	Cambuur won 3 of the last 5
11	NEC Nijmegen	12	3	5	4	-1	14	NEC Nijmegen won 1 of the last 5
12	Sparta Rotterdam	12	3	3	6	-8	12	Sparta Rotterdam won 2 of the last 5
13	PEC Zwolle	12	3	3	6	-11	12	PEC Zwolle won 2 of the last 5
14	Utrecht	12	3	3	6	-13	12	Utrecht won 2 of the last 5
15	Excelsior	12	3	2	7	-13	11	Excelsior won 0 of the last 5
16	Telstar	12	2	4	6	-7	10	Telstar won 1 of the last 5
17	ADO Den Haag	12	2	3	7	-9	9	ADO Den Haag won 2 of the last 5
18	Willem II	12	0	3	9	-29	3	Willem II won 0 of the last 5