Eredivisie · Review

Eredivisie matchweek 11 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Eredivisie result from matchweek 11 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 1 Nov 2026, updated 2 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Eredivisie, matchweek 11 (31 October – 1 November 2026), is complete: nine matches, 36 goals (4.00 a game), six home wins, one draw and two away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in five of the nine and both teams scored in three.

The result the model rated least likely was the draw in Feyenoord v Fortuna Sittard (1–1), which it had at 19%; the one it rated most likely was PSV Eindhoven's win in PSV Eindhoven v Willem II (7–0), at 84%.

After the round, Feyenoord lead on 25 points, one point clear of Ajax, with PSV Eindhoven third on 23. The bottom three are Telstar (9), ADO Den Haag (6), Willem II (2).

Match by match

Feyenoord 1–1 Fortuna SittardSat 31 Oct, 15:30

Before kick-off the model had Feyenoord 62%, the draw 19% and Fortuna Sittard 19%, with Feyenoord favoured; it put the draw at 19%. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 2.95–0.96: Feyenoord created the better chances. The headline call, Feyenoord to win at 62%, did not come in.

Heerenveen 1–0 NEC NijmegenSat 31 Oct, 17:45

Before kick-off the model had Heerenveen 41%, the draw 23% and NEC Nijmegen 36%, so Heerenveen winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.46–1.33: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 68%, did not come in. Pick published: NEC Nijmegen at 3.70 — lost.

PSV Eindhoven 7–0 Willem IISat 31 Oct, 17:45

Before kick-off the model had PSV Eindhoven 84%, the draw 10% and Willem II 7%, so PSV Eindhoven winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 3-1. Expected goals were 2.77–1.28: PSV Eindhoven created the better chances. The headline call, PSV Eindhoven to win at 84%, came in.

Ajax 1–0 AZ AlkmaarSat 31 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Ajax 42%, the draw 23% and AZ Alkmaar 35%, so Ajax winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.77–2.32: AZ Alkmaar created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, both teams to score at 68%, did not come in.

Cambuur 4–0 GO Ahead EaglesSat 31 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Cambuur 31%, the draw 21% and GO Ahead Eagles 47%, with GO Ahead Eagles favoured; it put Cambuur winning at 31%. The likeliest score had been 1-2. Expected goals were 1.60–0.66: Cambuur created the better chances. The headline call, GO Ahead Eagles to win at 47%, did not come in. Pick published: Cambuur -0.5 at 2.90 — won.

PEC Zwolle 1–0 ADO Den HaagSun 1 Nov, 11:15

Before kick-off the model had PEC Zwolle 34%, the draw 23% and ADO Den Haag 43%, with ADO Den Haag favoured; it put PEC Zwolle winning at 34%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.48–0.52: PEC Zwolle created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 67%, did not come in. Pick published: ADO Den Haag at 3.00 — lost.

Excelsior 0–9 TwenteSun 1 Nov, 13:30

Before kick-off the model had Excelsior 22%, the draw 23% and Twente 55%, so Twente winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.00–6.29: Twente created the better chances. The headline call, Twente to win at 55%, came in.

Telstar 4–2 UtrechtSun 1 Nov, 13:30

Before kick-off the model had Telstar 37%, the draw 23% and Utrecht 40%, with Utrecht favoured; it put Telstar winning at 37%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.49–1.31: Telstar created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 69%, came in.

Groningen 2–3 Sparta RotterdamSun 1 Nov, 15:45

Before kick-off the model had Groningen 51%, the draw 22% and Sparta Rotterdam 27%, with Groningen favoured; it put Sparta Rotterdam winning at 27%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.68–2.46: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Groningen to win at 51%, did not come in.

The numbers this season

Eredivisie has averaged 3.82 goals a game over 99 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 72% of them and both sides scoring in 69%. Home sides have won 34% of matches, 27% have been drawn and away sides have won 38%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.