Eredivisie · Review

Eredivisie matchweek 9 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Eredivisie result from matchweek 9 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 18 Oct 2026, updated 20 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Eredivisie, matchweek 9 (16–18 October 2026), is complete: nine matches, 42 goals (4.67 a game), four home wins, two draws and three away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in nine of the nine and both teams scored in eight.

The result the model rated least likely was ADO Den Haag's win in ADO Den Haag v PSV Eindhoven (2–1), which it had at 8%; the one it rated most likely was Feyenoord's win in Telstar v Feyenoord (3–4), at 55%.

After the round, Feyenoord lead on 23 points, three points clear of AZ Alkmaar, with PSV Eindhoven third on 19. The bottom three are Telstar (6), ADO Den Haag (6), Willem II (2).

Match by match

Heerenveen 4–0 ExcelsiorFri 16 Oct, 19:00

Before kick-off the model had Heerenveen 38%, the draw 25% and Excelsior 37%, so Heerenveen winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.80–0.72: Heerenveen created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 62%, did not come in. Pick published: Heerenveen -0.75 at 1.98 — won.

ADO Den Haag 2–1 PSV EindhovenSat 17 Oct, 15:30

Before kick-off the model had ADO Den Haag 8%, the draw 11% and PSV Eindhoven 80%, with PSV Eindhoven favoured; it put ADO Den Haag winning at 8%. The likeliest score had been 1-3. Expected goals were 1.43–1.07: ADO Den Haag created the better chances. The headline call, PSV Eindhoven to win at 80%, did not come in.

Telstar 3–4 FeyenoordSat 17 Oct, 19:00

Before kick-off the model had Telstar 23%, the draw 22% and Feyenoord 55%, so Feyenoord winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.43–3.83: Feyenoord created the better chances. The headline call, Feyenoord to win at 55%, came in.

Sparta Rotterdam 3–2 Willem IISat 17 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Sparta Rotterdam 48%, the draw 22% and Willem II 30%, so Sparta Rotterdam winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 3.46–1.24: Sparta Rotterdam created the better chances. The headline call, Sparta Rotterdam to win at 48%, came in.

PEC Zwolle 4–1 GO Ahead EaglesSun 18 Oct, 11:15

Before kick-off the model had PEC Zwolle 23%, the draw 21% and GO Ahead Eagles 57%, with GO Ahead Eagles favoured; it put PEC Zwolle winning at 23%. The likeliest score had been 1-2. Expected goals were 1.81–2.76: GO Ahead Eagles created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, GO Ahead Eagles to win at 57%, did not come in. Pick published: PEC Zwolle -0.75 at 3.30 — won.

Cambuur 2–2 AZ AlkmaarSun 18 Oct, 13:30

Before kick-off the model had Cambuur 16%, the draw 18% and AZ Alkmaar 66%, with AZ Alkmaar favoured; it put the draw at 18%. The likeliest score had been 1-2. Expected goals were 1.53–1.56: an even contest on chances. The headline call, AZ Alkmaar to win at 66%, did not come in.

Groningen 2–5 AjaxSun 18 Oct, 15:45

Before kick-off the model had Groningen 25%, the draw 22% and Ajax 53%, so Ajax winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.29–3.04: Ajax created the better chances. The headline call, Ajax to win at 53%, came in.

NEC Nijmegen 2–2 Fortuna SittardSun 18 Oct, 19:00

Before kick-off the model had NEC Nijmegen 45%, the draw 24% and Fortuna Sittard 31%, with NEC Nijmegen favoured; it put the draw at 24%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 3.06–0.45: NEC Nijmegen created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 66%, came in.

Twente 1–2 UtrechtSun 18 Oct, 19:00

Before kick-off the model had Twente 56%, the draw 21% and Utrecht 23%, with Twente favoured; it put Utrecht winning at 23%. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 1.36–1.25: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Twente to win at 56%, did not come in.

The numbers this season

Eredivisie has averaged 3.84 goals a game over 81 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 75% of them and both sides scoring in 72%. Home sides have won 32% of matches, 28% have been drawn and away sides have won 40%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.