Eredivisie · Review

Eredivisie matchweek 10 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Eredivisie result from matchweek 10 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 25 Oct 2026, updated 26 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Eredivisie, matchweek 10 (23–25 October 2026), is complete: nine matches, 31 goals (3.44 a game), two home wins, three draws and four away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in five of the nine and both teams scored in seven.

The result the model rated least likely was the draw in PSV Eindhoven v Feyenoord (1–1), which it had at 20%; the one it rated most likely was Ajax's win in Sparta Rotterdam v Ajax (1–2), at 65%.

After the round, Feyenoord lead on 24 points, three points clear of Ajax, with PSV Eindhoven third on 20. The bottom three are Telstar (6), ADO Den Haag (6), Willem II (2).

Match by match

GO Ahead Eagles 3–2 TelstarFri 23 Oct, 19:00

Before kick-off the model had GO Ahead Eagles 41%, the draw 25% and Telstar 35%, so GO Ahead Eagles winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.14–0.79: GO Ahead Eagles created the better chances. The headline call, over 1.5 goals at 83%, came in. Pick published: GO Ahead Eagles -1 at 1.83 — void.

Utrecht 1–1 PEC ZwolleSat 24 Oct, 15:30

Before kick-off the model had Utrecht 57%, the draw 21% and PEC Zwolle 23%, with Utrecht favoured; it put the draw at 21%. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 1.66–0.95: Utrecht created the better chances. The headline call, Utrecht to win at 57%, did not come in.

Willem II 1–6 CambuurSat 24 Oct, 17:45

Before kick-off the model had Willem II 31%, the draw 22% and Cambuur 47%, so Cambuur winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-2. Expected goals were 1.08–1.94: Cambuur created the better chances. The headline call, Cambuur to win at 47%, came in.

ADO Den Haag 2–3 HeerenveenSat 24 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had ADO Den Haag 22%, the draw 21% and Heerenveen 58%, so Heerenveen winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-2. Expected goals were 2.90–2.50: ADO Den Haag created the better chances. The headline call, Heerenveen to win at 58%, came in.

Fortuna Sittard 1–0 ExcelsiorSun 25 Oct, 11:15

Before kick-off the model had Fortuna Sittard 36%, the draw 24% and Excelsior 39%, with Excelsior favoured; it put Fortuna Sittard winning at 36%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.78–0.41: Fortuna Sittard created the better chances. The headline call, over 1.5 goals at 84%, did not come in. Pick published: Fortuna Sittard -0.5 at 2.60 — won.

NEC Nijmegen 2–2 GroningenSun 25 Oct, 13:30

Before kick-off the model had NEC Nijmegen 35%, the draw 24% and Groningen 41%, with Groningen favoured; it put the draw at 24%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.88–1.51: NEC Nijmegen created the better chances. The headline call, over 1.5 goals at 85%, came in.

PSV Eindhoven 1–1 FeyenoordSun 25 Oct, 13:30

Before kick-off the model had PSV Eindhoven 45%, the draw 20% and Feyenoord 35%, with PSV Eindhoven favoured; it put the draw at 20%. The likeliest score had been 2-2. Expected goals were 1.95–1.23: PSV Eindhoven created the better chances. The headline call, PSV Eindhoven to win at 45%, did not come in.

Sparta Rotterdam 1–2 AjaxSun 25 Oct, 15:45

Before kick-off the model had Sparta Rotterdam 17%, the draw 18% and Ajax 65%, so Ajax winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score, 1-2, was the one that came. Expected goals were 0.93–1.43: Ajax created the better chances. The headline call, Ajax to win at 65%, came in.

AZ Alkmaar 0–2 TwenteSun 25 Oct, 19:00

Before kick-off the model had AZ Alkmaar 37%, the draw 26% and Twente 37%, so Twente winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.27–2.07: Twente created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 59%, did not come in.

The numbers this season

Eredivisie has averaged 3.80 goals a game over 90 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 73% of them and both sides scoring in 72%. Home sides have won 31% of matches, 29% have been drawn and away sides have won 40%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.