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Eredivisie predictions: matchweek 10 (23–25 October 2026)

Every Eredivisie match in matchweek 10 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 17 Oct 2026, updated 18 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Eredivisie, matchweek 10: nine matches, played across 23–25 October 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Ajax, 65% to beat Sparta Rotterdam away; the most evenly balanced game is AZ Alkmaar v Twente (AZ Alkmaar 37%, draw 26%, Twente 37%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is PSV Eindhoven v Feyenoord, at 4.41; the tightest looks AZ Alkmaar v Twente, at 2.87.

Going into the round, Feyenoord lead on 23 points, four points clear of PSV Eindhoven, with AZ Alkmaar third on 19. The bottom three are ADO Den Haag (6), PEC Zwolle (4), Willem II (2).

The numbers this season

Eredivisie has averaged 3.79 goals a game over 76 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 74% of them and both sides scoring in 70%. Home sides have won 33% of matches, 28% have been drawn and away sides have won 39%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

GO Ahead Eagles v TelstarFri 23 Oct, 19:00

Our model makes GO Ahead Eagles 41%, the draw 25% and Telstar 35%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.18 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 64%. The headline call is both teams to score at 64%. GO Ahead Eagles are 9th on 11 points from 8; Telstar are 15th on 6 points from 9. GO Ahead Eagles are without a win in five (four draws, one defeat); Telstar are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats). Telstar have won two of the sides' last three meetings.

Utrecht v PEC ZwolleSat 24 Oct, 15:30

Our model makes Utrecht 57%, the draw 21% and PEC Zwolle 23%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.67 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 68%. The headline call is Utrecht to win at 57%. Utrecht are 14th on 8 points from 8; PEC Zwolle are 17th on 4 points from 8. Utrecht have won two of their last five; PEC Zwolle are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats). One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Willem II v CambuurSat 24 Oct, 17:45

Our model makes Willem II 31%, the draw 22% and Cambuur 47%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (8%), 3.83 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 72%. The headline call is Cambuur to win at 47%. Willem II are 18th on 2 points from 9; Cambuur are 13th on 8 points from 8. Willem II are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); Cambuur have won two of their last five.

ADO Den Haag v HeerenveenSat 24 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes ADO Den Haag 22%, the draw 21% and Heerenveen 58%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (9%), 3.59 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is Heerenveen to win at 58%. ADO Den Haag are 16th on 6 points from 9; Heerenveen are 8th on 12 points from 9. ADO Den Haag have won one of their last five; Heerenveen have won two of their last five.

Fortuna Sittard v ExcelsiorSun 25 Oct, 11:15

Our model makes Fortuna Sittard 36%, the draw 24% and Excelsior 39%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.21 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 64%. The headline call is both teams to score at 64%. Fortuna Sittard are 7th on 14 points from 8; Excelsior are 10th on 11 points from 9. Fortuna Sittard have won three of their last five; Excelsior are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats). The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Fortuna Sittard wins, draws and Excelsior wins.

NEC Nijmegen v GroningenSun 25 Oct, 13:30

Our model makes NEC Nijmegen 35%, the draw 24% and Groningen 41%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.31 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is both teams to score at 66%. NEC Nijmegen are 11th on 9 points from 8; Groningen are 6th on 14 points from 8. NEC Nijmegen are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats); Groningen have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between NEC Nijmegen wins, draws and Groningen wins.

PSV Eindhoven v FeyenoordSun 25 Oct, 13:30

Our model makes PSV Eindhoven 45%, the draw 20% and Feyenoord 35%. The likeliest score is 2-2 (7%), 4.41 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 82%, both teams to score 79%. The headline call is PSV Eindhoven to win at 45%. PSV Eindhoven are 2nd on 19 points from 9; Feyenoord are 1st on 23 points from 9. PSV Eindhoven have won three of their last five; Feyenoord have won all of their last five. PSV Eindhoven have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Sparta Rotterdam v AjaxSun 25 Oct, 15:45

Our model makes Sparta Rotterdam 17%, the draw 18% and Ajax 65%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (9%), 3.94 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 68%. The headline call is Ajax to win at 65%. Sparta Rotterdam are 12th on 9 points from 9; Ajax are 5th on 15 points from 8. Sparta Rotterdam have won one of their last five; Ajax have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

AZ Alkmaar v TwenteSun 25 Oct, 19:00

Our model makes AZ Alkmaar 37%, the draw 26% and Twente 37%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.87 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is both teams to score at 59%. AZ Alkmaar are 3rd on 19 points from 8; Twente are 4th on 17 points from 8. AZ Alkmaar have won three of their last five; Twente are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws). Two of the sides' last three meetings were drawn.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

The model has published four picks on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.