Heerenveen v NEC Nijmegen

6th1–011th

17:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Heerenveen		NEC Nijmegen
8	Shots	21
2	Shots on target	1
5	Corners	7
7	Fouls	7
3	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	1
343	Passes	548
38%	Possession %	62%
1.46	xG	1.33

Over 1.5: 86%
Over 2.5: 67%
Over 3.5: 46%
Both score: 68%

Model pick: Heerenveen 41%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.80 – 1.67

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

NEC Nijmegen

3.70Betano · fair 3.35 · qualifies at 3.45+ · 0.97u

Why this price?

Back NEC Nijmegen to win at 3.70 with Betano.

Our model puts the chance at 36% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 26%; we judge it at 30%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.35. The offered 3.70 implies only 27%, so the price is 10.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.97 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Heerenveen 1.80, NEC Nijmegen 1.66.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 2.5	32.8%	3.05	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	+3.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	45.5%	2.19	1.95 Betano	51.3%	-5.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	54.5%	1.84	1.88 Betano	53.2%	+1.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	68.1%	1.47	1.42 Betano	70.4%	-2.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	31.9%	3.14	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	+1.1
Match result	Heerenveen	41.1%	2.43	2.14 Dafabet	46.7%	-5.6
Match result	Draw	23.3%	4.29	4.15 Betano	24.1%	-0.8
Match result	NEC Nijmegen	35.6%	2.81	3.70 Betfair	27.0%	+8.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	86.5%	1.16	1.13 Betano	88.5%	-2.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	13.5%	7.40	8.00 Bet365	12.5%	+1.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	67.2%	1.49	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	-4.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Heerenveen v NEC Nijmegen: too close to call

Our model makes Heerenveen 41% to win this Eredivisie fixture, with the draw at 23% and NEC Nijmegen at 36%. The goal projection is 1.80 for Heerenveen against 1.67 for NEC Nijmegen — a slight edge to Heerenveen on expected output. A combined 3.46 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 67% and both teams to score at 68%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 2-1 8%; 1-2 8%; 2-2 7%; 1-0 5%

This season

Season records for Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen
Heerenveen		NEC Nijmegen
12	Played	12
6-3-3	W-D-L	3-5-4
1.75	Pts / game	1.17
2.00	Goals for / game	1.67
1.33	Goals against / game	1.75
58%	Over 2.5	75%
42%	BTTS	83%
42%	Clean sheets	0%
25%	Failed to score	17%
4-1-2	Home record	0-4-2
2-2-1	Away record	3-1-2
W4	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Heerenveen · NEC Nijmegen

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.4	Shots	18.0
5.6	Shots on target	5.2
4.2	Corners	8.0
1.20	Cards	1.33
8.4	Fouls	9.8
47	Possession %	55
2.06	xG	1.78
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.8	Shots	11.7
2.8	Shots on target	4.0
4.2	Corners	3.5
1.20	Cards	2.33
12.6	Fouls	10.2
53	Possession %	45
1.56	xG	1.65
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Heerenveen	Metric	NEC Nijmegen
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.80
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	1.40
1.84 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.72
	Big chances
6.40 (better)	Shots on target	5.60
17.20 (better)	Total shots	16.40
	Touches in opp. box
5.60	Corners	6.00 (better)
51.6 (better)	Possession %	50.4
476 (better)	Passes	420
	Tackles
10.00 (better)	Fouls	12.80
1.00 (better)	Offsides	2.20
	Throw-ins
1.00	Yellow cards	1.00
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Heerenveen wins: 2
Draws: 1
NEC Nijmegen wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Eredivisie table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	PSV Eindhoven	12	8	2	2	+25	26	PSV Eindhoven won 3 of the last 5
2	Feyenoord	12	7	4	1	+19	25	Feyenoord won 2 of the last 5
3	Ajax	12	7	4	1	+17	25	Ajax won 3 of the last 5
4	Twente	12	7	3	2	+18	24	Twente won 2 of the last 5
5	AZ Alkmaar	12	7	2	3	+8	23	AZ Alkmaar won 1 of the last 5
6	Heerenveen	12	6	3	3	+8	21	Heerenveen won 4 of the last 5
7	Fortuna Sittard	12	5	5	2	0	20	Fortuna Sittard won 1 of the last 5
8	GO Ahead Eagles	12	4	5	3	-3	17	GO Ahead Eagles won 2 of the last 5
9	Groningen	12	4	3	5	+1	15	Groningen won 1 of the last 5
10	Cambuur	12	4	3	5	-2	15	Cambuur won 3 of the last 5
11	NEC Nijmegen	12	3	5	4	-1	14	NEC Nijmegen won 1 of the last 5
12	Sparta Rotterdam	12	3	3	6	-8	12	Sparta Rotterdam won 2 of the last 5
13	PEC Zwolle	12	3	3	6	-11	12	PEC Zwolle won 2 of the last 5
14	Utrecht	12	3	3	6	-13	12	Utrecht won 2 of the last 5
15	Excelsior	12	3	2	7	-13	11	Excelsior won 0 of the last 5
16	Telstar	12	2	4	6	-7	10	Telstar won 1 of the last 5
17	ADO Den Haag	12	2	3	7	-9	9	ADO Den Haag won 2 of the last 5
18	Willem II	12	0	3	9	-29	3	Willem II won 0 of the last 5