Cambuur v 
GO Ahead Eagles
Match statistics
| Cambuur | GO Ahead Eagles | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 2 | Offsides | 3 |
| 388 | Passes | 371 |
| 51% | Possession % | 49% |
| 1.60 | xG | 0.66 |
- Over 1.5
- 91%
- Over 2.5
- 75%
- Over 3.5
- 55%
- Both score
- 74%
- Model pick
- GO Ahead Eagles 47%
- Likely score
- 1-2 8%
- Expected goals
- 1.75 – 2.17
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Cambuur -0.5
Why this price?
Back Cambuur -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.90 with Betano — Cambuur must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 31% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 43%; we judge it at 38%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.62. The offered 2.90 implies only 34%, so the price is 10.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.43 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Cambuur 1.75, GO Ahead Eagles 2.17.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Cambuur | 31.3% | 3.19 | 3.00 Bet365 | 33.3% | -2.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 21.3% | 4.70 | 3.95 Betano | 25.3% | -4.0 |
| Match result | GO Ahead Eagles | 47.4% | 2.11 | 2.45 Bet365 | 40.8% | +6.5 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 90.6% | 1.10 | 1.15 Betano | 87.0% | +3.7 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 9.4% | 10.65 | 6.50 Betfair | 15.4% | -6.0 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 75.0% | 1.33 | 1.45 Betano | 69.0% | +6.0 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 25.0% | 4.00 | 2.88 Betfair | 34.7% | -9.7 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 55.1% | 1.82 | 2.12 Betano | 47.2% | +7.9 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 44.9% | 2.23 | 1.75 Betano | 57.1% | -12.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 73.6% | 1.36 | 1.44 Bet365 | 69.4% | +4.1 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 26.4% | 3.78 | 2.88 BetVictor | 34.7% | -8.3 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
GO Ahead Eagles favoured against Cambuur
Our model makes Cambuur 31% to win this Eredivisie fixture, with the draw at 21% and GO Ahead Eagles at 47%. The goal projection is 1.75 for Cambuur against 2.17 for GO Ahead Eagles — a clear edge to GO Ahead Eagles on expected output. A combined 3.92 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 75% and both teams to score at 74%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-2 8%
- 1-1 8%
- 2-2 7%
- 2-1 7%
- 1-3 6%
This season
| Cambuur | GO Ahead Eagles | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Played | 12 |
| 4-3-5 | W-D-L | 4-5-3 |
| 1.25 | Pts / game | 1.42 |
| 2.08 | Goals for / game | 2.00 |
| 2.25 | Goals against / game | 2.25 |
| 83% | Over 2.5 | 75% |
| 67% | BTTS | 83% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 8% |
| 8% | Failed to score | 8% |
| 2-1-4 | Home record | 3-2-0 |
| 2-2-1 | Away record | 1-3-3 |
| L1 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Cambuur · GO Ahead Eagles
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 13.6 | Shots | 13.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.2 | Shots on target | 4.7 |
| 4.0 | Corners | 4.7 |
| 2.20 | Cards | 0.83 |
| 11.4 | Fouls | 8.0 |
| 45 | Possession % | 54 |
| 1.40 | xG | 1.47 |
| 5 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 11.8 | Shots | 15.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Shots on target | 5.7 |
| 5.4 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 1.17 |
| 15.2 | Fouls | 7.7 |
| 55 | Possession % | 46 |
| 1.40 | xG | 1.35 |
| 5 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| Cambuur | Metric | GO Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 1.80 | Goals scored | 1.80 |
| 1.00 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.20 |
| 1.61 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.95 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.60 | Shots on target | 6.20 (better) |
| 11.20 | Total shots | 17.80 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.40 | Corners | 7.00 (better) |
| 44.4 | Possession % | 56.4 (better) |
| 342 | Passes | 504 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 15.20 | Fouls | 8.00 (better) |
| 2.50 | Offsides | 1.00 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.60 | Yellow cards | 0.80 (better) |
| 0.20 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Cambuur wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- GO Ahead Eagles wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 4.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 0%
- Cambuur v GO Ahead Eagles4–02026-10-31
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | +25 | 26 | PSV Eindhoven won 3 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | +19 | 25 | Feyenoord won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Ajax | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | +17 | 25 | Ajax won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Twente | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | +18 | 24 | Twente won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +8 | 23 | AZ Alkmaar won 1 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | +8 | 21 | Heerenveen won 4 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 20 | Fortuna Sittard won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | -3 | 17 | GO Ahead Eagles won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Groningen | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | +1 | 15 | Groningen won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Cambuur | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 15 | Cambuur won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 | NEC Nijmegen won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 12 | Sparta Rotterdam won 2 of the last 5 |
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 12 | PEC Zwolle won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Utrecht | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -13 | 12 | Utrecht won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 11 | Excelsior won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Telstar | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 10 | Telstar won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 9 | ADO Den Haag won 2 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Willem II | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | -29 | 3 | Willem II won 0 of the last 5 |