Fortuna Sittard v 
Telstar
Match statistics
| Fortuna Sittard | Telstar | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 3 | Offsides | 3 |
| 372 | Passes | 437 |
| 47% | Possession % | 53% |
| 1.95 | xG | 0.85 |
- Over 1.5
- 83%
- Over 2.5
- 61%
- Over 3.5
- 39%
- Both score
- 63%
- Model pick
- Telstar 39%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.55 – 1.60
Advised bets
VoidMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Telstar 0
Why this price?
Back Telstar 0 on the Asian handicap at 2.60 with Bet365 — Telstar to win; a draw returns the stake.
Our model puts the chance at 51% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 37%; we judge it at 43%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.35. The offered 2.60 implies only 38%, so the price is 10.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.67 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Fortuna Sittard 1.55, Telstar 1.59.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Fortuna Sittard | 36.8% | 2.72 | 2.10 Dafabet | 47.6% | -10.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 24.7% | 4.05 | 3.80 Betfair | 26.3% | -1.6 |
| Match result | Telstar | 38.5% | 2.60 | 3.60 Betano | 27.8% | +10.8 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 82.7% | 1.21 | 1.23 Betano | 81.3% | +1.4 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 17.3% | 5.79 | 4.60 BetVictor | 21.7% | -4.5 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 60.9% | 1.64 | 1.70 Bet365 | 58.8% | +2.1 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 39.1% | 2.56 | 2.35 Betano | 42.6% | -3.5 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 38.6% | 2.59 | 2.75 BetVictor | 36.4% | +2.2 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 61.4% | 1.63 | 1.50 Bet365 | 66.7% | -5.3 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 63.4% | 1.58 | 1.57 Bet365 | 63.7% | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 36.6% | 2.73 | 2.45 Betano | 40.8% | -4.2 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Fortuna Sittard v Telstar: too close to call
Our model makes Fortuna Sittard 37% to win this Eredivisie fixture, with the draw at 25% and Telstar at 39%. The goal projection is 1.55 for Fortuna Sittard against 1.60 for Telstar — almost nothing to Telstar on expected output. A combined 3.15 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 1-2 8%
- 2-1 8%
- 2-2 7%
- 0-1 6%
This season
| Fortuna Sittard | Telstar | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Played | 12 |
| 5-5-2 | W-D-L | 2-4-6 |
| 1.67 | Pts / game | 0.83 |
| 1.67 | Goals for / game | 1.50 |
| 1.67 | Goals against / game | 2.08 |
| 58% | Over 2.5 | 75% |
| 75% | BTTS | 67% |
| 17% | Clean sheets | 8% |
| 8% | Failed to score | 33% |
| 2-2-2 | Home record | 1-2-3 |
| 3-3-0 | Away record | 1-2-3 |
| D2 | Streak | D1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Fortuna Sittard · Telstar
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 9.4 | Shots | 16.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Shots on target | 5.3 |
| 3.4 | Corners | 4.2 |
| 1.40 | Cards | 1.33 |
| 12.6 | Fouls | 10.5 |
| 38 | Possession % | 50 |
| 1.01 | xG | 1.43 |
| 5 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 14.2 | Shots | 13.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.8 | Shots on target | 6.2 |
| 6.8 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 1.00 | Cards | 2.03 |
| 13.0 | Fouls | 13.7 |
| 62 | Possession % | 50 |
| 1.69 | xG | 2.00 |
| 5 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| Fortuna Sittard | Metric | Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 (better) | Goals scored | 1.40 |
| 1.20 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.40 |
| 0.86 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.19 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.50 (better) | Shots on target | 3.60 |
| 10.25 | Total shots | 16.60 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.25 (better) | Corners | 5.20 |
| 38.0 | Possession % | 56.2 (better) |
| 364 | Passes | 529 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 14.75 | Fouls | 9.00 (better) |
| 1.75 (better) | Offsides | 1.80 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.75 | Yellow cards | 1.25 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Fortuna Sittard wins
- 1
- Draws
- 1
- Telstar wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 4.33
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- Fortuna Sittard v Telstar2–22026-11-07
- Fortuna Sittard v Telstar1–42026-03-08
- Telstar v Fortuna Sittard1–32025-09-14
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | +25 | 26 | PSV Eindhoven won 3 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | +19 | 25 | Feyenoord won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Ajax | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | +17 | 25 | Ajax won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Twente | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | +18 | 24 | Twente won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +8 | 23 | AZ Alkmaar won 1 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | +8 | 21 | Heerenveen won 4 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 20 | Fortuna Sittard won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | -3 | 17 | GO Ahead Eagles won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Groningen | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | +1 | 15 | Groningen won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Cambuur | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 15 | Cambuur won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 | NEC Nijmegen won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 12 | Sparta Rotterdam won 2 of the last 5 |
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 12 | PEC Zwolle won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Utrecht | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -13 | 12 | Utrecht won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 11 | Excelsior won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Telstar | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 10 | Telstar won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 9 | ADO Den Haag won 2 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Willem II | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | -29 | 3 | Willem II won 0 of the last 5 |