Twente v Ajax

4th2–23rd

13:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Twente		Ajax
22	Shots	6
5	Shots on target	2
9	Corners	2
10	Fouls	11
3	Yellow cards	5
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	2
507	Passes	419
55%	Possession %	45%
2.56	xG	0.72

Over 1.5: 86%
Over 2.5: 66%
Over 3.5: 44%
Both score: 67%

Model pick: Ajax 40%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.65 – 1.74

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Twente -0.5

2.55Betano · fair 2.30 · qualifies at 2.37+ · 1.76u

Why this price?

Back Twente -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.55 with Betano — Twente must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 36% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 48%; we judge it at 43%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.30. The offered 2.55 implies only 39%, so the price is 10.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.76 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Twente 1.65, Ajax 1.74.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Twente	36.3%	2.76	2.60 Betano	38.5%	-2.2
Match result	Draw	23.6%	4.23	4.20 Bet365	23.8%	-0.2
Match result	Ajax	40.1%	2.49	3.75 Bet365	26.7%	+13.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	85.7%	1.17	1.13 Betano	88.5%	-2.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	14.3%	6.98	7.00 Bet365	14.3%	+0.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	65.8%	1.52	1.48 Bet365	67.6%	-1.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	34.2%	2.93	3.10 Bet365	32.3%	+1.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	43.9%	2.28	2.10 Bet365	47.6%	-3.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	56.1%	1.78	1.85 Betano	54.1%	+2.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	67.1%	1.49	1.42 Betano	70.4%	-3.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	32.9%	3.04	3.10 Betano	32.3%	+0.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Twente v Ajax: too close to call

Our model makes Twente 36% to win this Eredivisie fixture, with the draw at 24% and Ajax at 40%. The goal projection is 1.65 for Twente against 1.74 for Ajax — almost nothing to Ajax on expected output. A combined 3.39 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 66% and both teams to score at 67%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 1-2 8%; 2-1 8%; 2-2 7%; 0-1 5%

This season

Season records for Twente and Ajax
Twente		Ajax
12	Played	12
7-3-2	W-D-L	7-4-1
2.00	Pts / game	2.08
2.50	Goals for / game	2.67
1.00	Goals against / game	1.25
58%	Over 2.5	75%
58%	BTTS	75%
33%	Clean sheets	25%
8%	Failed to score	0%
4-1-1	Home record	2-3-1
3-2-1	Away record	5-1-0
D1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Twente · Ajax

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
20.5	Shots	12.8
6.8	Shots on target	4.8
6.8	Corners	2.8
1.37	Cards	2.40
12.3	Fouls	11.0
57	Possession %	51
2.64	xG	1.56
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.0	Shots	15.4
3.5	Shots on target	4.4
3.2	Corners	6.6
2.37	Cards	1.80
11.2	Fouls	12.4
43	Possession %	49
0.86	xG	1.84
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Twente	Metric	Ajax
1.80	Goals scored	2.20 (better)
0.80 (better)	Goals conceded	1.20
2.34 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.82
	Big chances
5.80	Shots on target	6.20 (better)
19.80 (better)	Total shots	16.40
	Touches in opp. box
6.00 (better)	Corners	4.80
62.6 (better)	Possession %	56.2
582 (better)	Passes	535
	Tackles
14.20	Fouls	10.60 (better)
2.67	Offsides	1.80 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.00 (better)	Yellow cards	1.80
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Twente wins: 1
Draws: 1
Ajax wins: 1
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Twente v Ajax2–22026-11-08
Ajax v Twente1–22026-04-04
Twente v Ajax2–32025-10-26

Eredivisie table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	PSV Eindhoven	12	8	2	2	+25	26	PSV Eindhoven won 3 of the last 5
2	Feyenoord	12	7	4	1	+19	25	Feyenoord won 2 of the last 5
3	Ajax	12	7	4	1	+17	25	Ajax won 3 of the last 5
4	Twente	12	7	3	2	+18	24	Twente won 2 of the last 5
5	AZ Alkmaar	12	7	2	3	+8	23	AZ Alkmaar won 1 of the last 5
6	Heerenveen	12	6	3	3	+8	21	Heerenveen won 4 of the last 5
7	Fortuna Sittard	12	5	5	2	0	20	Fortuna Sittard won 1 of the last 5
8	GO Ahead Eagles	12	4	5	3	-3	17	GO Ahead Eagles won 2 of the last 5
9	Groningen	12	4	3	5	+1	15	Groningen won 1 of the last 5
10	Cambuur	12	4	3	5	-2	15	Cambuur won 3 of the last 5
11	NEC Nijmegen	12	3	5	4	-1	14	NEC Nijmegen won 1 of the last 5
12	Sparta Rotterdam	12	3	3	6	-8	12	Sparta Rotterdam won 2 of the last 5
13	PEC Zwolle	12	3	3	6	-11	12	PEC Zwolle won 2 of the last 5
14	Utrecht	12	3	3	6	-13	12	Utrecht won 2 of the last 5
15	Excelsior	12	3	2	7	-13	11	Excelsior won 0 of the last 5
16	Telstar	12	2	4	6	-7	10	Telstar won 1 of the last 5
17	ADO Den Haag	12	2	3	7	-9	9	ADO Den Haag won 2 of the last 5
18	Willem II	12	0	3	9	-29	3	Willem II won 0 of the last 5