Utrecht v NEC Nijmegen

14th2–311th

19:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Utrecht		NEC Nijmegen
16	Shots	16
5	Shots on target	7
3	Corners	8
17	Fouls	11
2	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	1
404	Passes	400
49%	Possession %	51%
2.28	xG	2.27

Over 1.5: 87%
Over 2.5: 69%
Over 3.5: 48%
Both score: 69%

Model pick: NEC Nijmegen 41%
Likely score: 1-1 9%
Expected goals: 1.73 – 1.83

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Over 2.5	69.0%	1.45	1.51 BetVictor	66.2%	+2.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	31.0%	3.22	2.88 Bet365	34.7%	-3.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	47.6%	2.10	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	+5.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	52.4%	1.91	1.75 Betano	57.1%	-4.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	69.5%	1.44	1.47 Betfair	68.0%	+1.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	30.5%	3.28	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	-4.2
Match result	Utrecht	36.3%	2.75	2.45 Bet365	40.8%	-4.5
Match result	Draw	23.0%	4.36	3.90 Betfair	25.6%	-2.7
Match result	NEC Nijmegen	40.7%	2.46	2.88 Bet365	34.7%	+6.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	87.5%	1.14	1.15 Betano	87.0%	+0.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	12.5%	7.97	6.50 Bet365	15.4%	-2.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Utrecht v NEC Nijmegen: too close to call

Our model makes Utrecht 36% to win this Eredivisie fixture, with the draw at 23% and NEC Nijmegen at 41%. The goal projection is 1.73 for Utrecht against 1.83 for NEC Nijmegen — a slight edge to NEC Nijmegen on expected output. A combined 3.56 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 69% and both teams to score at 69%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 9%; 1-2 8%; 2-1 8%; 2-2 7%; 1-3 5%

This season

Season records for Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen
Utrecht		NEC Nijmegen
12	Played	12
3-3-6	W-D-L	3-5-4
1.00	Pts / game	1.17
1.75	Goals for / game	1.67
2.83	Goals against / game	1.75
92%	Over 2.5	75%
92%	BTTS	83%
0%	Clean sheets	0%
8%	Failed to score	17%
1-2-3	Home record	0-4-2
2-1-3	Away record	3-1-2
L2	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Utrecht · NEC Nijmegen

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
18.8	Shots	18.0
5.2	Shots on target	5.2
6.0	Corners	8.0
2.00	Cards	1.33
14.8	Fouls	9.8
54	Possession %	55
1.58	xG	1.78
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.8	Shots	11.7
5.2	Shots on target	4.0
4.2	Corners	3.5
1.00	Cards	2.33
10.6	Fouls	10.2
46	Possession %	45
1.55	xG	1.65
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Utrecht	Metric	NEC Nijmegen
1.80	Goals scored	1.80
1.40 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
1.36	Expected goals (xG)	1.93 (better)
	Big chances
4.80	Shots on target	6.20 (better)
17.20	Total shots	19.80 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
7.00	Corners	7.80 (better)
54.4	Possession %	57.6 (better)
460	Passes	487 (better)
	Tackles
13.20	Fouls	11.80 (better)
0.75 (better)	Offsides	1.40
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	1.20 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Utrecht wins: 2
Draws: 0
NEC Nijmegen wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Utrecht v NEC Nijmegen2–32026-11-08
NEC Nijmegen v Utrecht1–32026-02-11
Utrecht v NEC Nijmegen1–02025-11-02

Eredivisie table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	PSV Eindhoven	12	8	2	2	+25	26	PSV Eindhoven won 3 of the last 5
2	Feyenoord	12	7	4	1	+19	25	Feyenoord won 2 of the last 5
3	Ajax	12	7	4	1	+17	25	Ajax won 3 of the last 5
4	Twente	12	7	3	2	+18	24	Twente won 2 of the last 5
5	AZ Alkmaar	12	7	2	3	+8	23	AZ Alkmaar won 1 of the last 5
6	Heerenveen	12	6	3	3	+8	21	Heerenveen won 4 of the last 5
7	Fortuna Sittard	12	5	5	2	0	20	Fortuna Sittard won 1 of the last 5
8	GO Ahead Eagles	12	4	5	3	-3	17	GO Ahead Eagles won 2 of the last 5
9	Groningen	12	4	3	5	+1	15	Groningen won 1 of the last 5
10	Cambuur	12	4	3	5	-2	15	Cambuur won 3 of the last 5
11	NEC Nijmegen	12	3	5	4	-1	14	NEC Nijmegen won 1 of the last 5
12	Sparta Rotterdam	12	3	3	6	-8	12	Sparta Rotterdam won 2 of the last 5
13	PEC Zwolle	12	3	3	6	-11	12	PEC Zwolle won 2 of the last 5
14	Utrecht	12	3	3	6	-13	12	Utrecht won 2 of the last 5
15	Excelsior	12	3	2	7	-13	11	Excelsior won 0 of the last 5
16	Telstar	12	2	4	6	-7	10	Telstar won 1 of the last 5
17	ADO Den Haag	12	2	3	7	-9	9	ADO Den Haag won 2 of the last 5
18	Willem II	12	0	3	9	-29	3	Willem II won 0 of the last 5