Bundesliga · Review

Bundesliga matchweek 6 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Bundesliga result from matchweek 6 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 18 Oct 2026, updated 20 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Bundesliga, matchweek 6 (16–18 October 2026), is complete: nine matches, 27 goals (3.00 a game), five home wins, two draws and two away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in five of the nine and both teams scored in five.

The result the model rated least likely was the draw in Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund (0–0), which it had at 20%; the one it rated most likely was Bayern München's win in Bayern München v RB Leipzig (6–1), at 75%.

After the round, Bayern München lead on goal difference from Borussia Dortmund, both on 14 points, with SC Freiburg third on 13. The bottom three are SC Paderborn 07 (5), Union Berlin (5), Borussia Mönchengladbach (0).

Match by match

Eintracht Frankfurt 1–0 1. FC KölnFri 16 Oct, 19:30

Before kick-off the model had Eintracht Frankfurt 57%, the draw 19% and 1. FC Köln 24%, so Eintracht Frankfurt winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 1.84–0.82: Eintracht Frankfurt created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 76%, did not come in. Pick published: Eintracht Frankfurt -0.25 at 1.75 (free pick) — won.

FC Schalke 04 0–1 FSV Mainz 05Sat 17 Oct, 14:30

Before kick-off the model had FC Schalke 04 34%, the draw 28% and FSV Mainz 05 38%, so FSV Mainz 05 winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.43–1.94: FSV Mainz 05 created the better chances. The headline call, FSV Mainz 05 to win at 38%, came in.

Hamburger SV 1–0 VfB StuttgartSat 17 Oct, 14:30

Before kick-off the model had Hamburger SV 21%, the draw 22% and VfB Stuttgart 57%, with VfB Stuttgart favoured; it put Hamburger SV winning at 21%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.50–2.28: VfB Stuttgart created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, VfB Stuttgart to win at 57%, did not come in. Pick published: Both teams to score — No at 3.20 — won.

SV Elversberg 4–3 FC AugsburgSat 17 Oct, 14:30

Before kick-off the model had SV Elversberg 48%, the draw 23% and FC Augsburg 29%, so SV Elversberg winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 3.78–3.92: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 67%, came in. Pick published: FC Augsburg +0.25 at 2.37 (free pick) — lost.

Union Berlin 0–0 Borussia DortmundSat 17 Oct, 14:30

Before kick-off the model had Union Berlin 19%, the draw 20% and Borussia Dortmund 61%, with Borussia Dortmund favoured; it put the draw at 20%. The likeliest score had been 1-2. Expected goals were 0.80–1.09: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Borussia Dortmund to win at 61%, did not come in.

Werder Bremen 2–2 SC Paderborn 07Sat 17 Oct, 14:30

Before kick-off the model had Werder Bremen 38%, the draw 25% and SC Paderborn 07 37%, with Werder Bremen favoured; it put the draw at 25%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 3.21–1.15: Werder Bremen created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 61%, came in. Pick published: Werder Bremen -0.75 at 2.00 — lost.

Bayern München 6–1 RB LeipzigSat 17 Oct, 17:30

Before kick-off the model had Bayern München 75%, the draw 14% and RB Leipzig 12%, so Bayern München winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 3-1. Expected goals were 3.48–0.90: Bayern München created the better chances. The headline call, Bayern München to win at 75%, came in.

Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 SC FreiburgSun 18 Oct, 14:30

Before kick-off the model had Bayer Leverkusen 47%, the draw 24% and SC Freiburg 30%, so Bayer Leverkusen winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.64–1.21: Bayer Leverkusen created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 65%, came in.

Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–2 1899 HoffenheimSun 18 Oct, 16:30

Before kick-off the model had Borussia Mönchengladbach 38%, the draw 23% and 1899 Hoffenheim 40%, so 1899 Hoffenheim winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.55–1.86: 1899 Hoffenheim created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 72%, came in. Pick published: Borussia Mönchengladbach at 3.48 (free pick) — lost.

The numbers this season

Bundesliga has averaged 3.69 goals a game over 54 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 74% of them and both sides scoring in 59%. Home sides have won 52% of matches, 20% have been drawn and away sides have won 28%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.