Bundesliga · Preview

Bundesliga predictions: matchweek 9 (6–8 November 2026)

Every Bundesliga match in matchweek 9 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 30 Oct 2026, updated 1 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Bundesliga, matchweek 9: nine matches, played across 6–8 November 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Bayern München, 70% to beat FSV Mainz 05 away; the most evenly balanced game is Hamburger SV v Borussia Mönchengladbach (Hamburger SV 38%, draw 25%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 36%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is FSV Mainz 05 v Bayern München, at 4.44; the tightest looks 1899 Hoffenheim v FC Schalke 04, at 2.79.

Going into the round, Bayern München lead on goal difference from Borussia Dortmund, both on 18 points, with SC Freiburg third on 16. The bottom three are FC Schalke 04 (6), Union Berlin (6), Borussia Mönchengladbach (4).

The numbers this season

Bundesliga has averaged 3.51 goals a game over 70 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 70% of them and both sides scoring in 57%. Home sides have won 49% of matches, 21% have been drawn and away sides have won 30%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Hamburger SV v Borussia MönchengladbachFri 6 Nov, 19:30

Our model makes Hamburger SV 38%, the draw 25% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 36%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 3.02 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is both teams to score at 61%. Hamburger SV are 13th on 9 points from 7; Borussia Mönchengladbach are 18th on 4 points from 8. Hamburger SV have won three of their last five; Borussia Mönchengladbach have won one of their last five. Two of the sides' last two meetings were drawn.

Borussia Dortmund v SV ElversbergSat 7 Nov, 14:30

Our model makes Borussia Dortmund 63%, the draw 20% and SV Elversberg 17%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (10%), 3.33 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is Borussia Dortmund to win at 63%. Borussia Dortmund are 2nd on 18 points from 8; SV Elversberg are 7th on 13 points from 8. Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in five (two wins, three draws); SV Elversberg have won two of their last five.

FSV Mainz 05 v Bayern MünchenSat 7 Nov, 14:30

Our model makes FSV Mainz 05 15%, the draw 15% and Bayern München 70%. The likeliest score is 1-3 (8%), 4.44 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 82%, both teams to score 72%. The headline call is Bayern München to win at 70%. FSV Mainz 05 are 8th on 10 points from 8; Bayern München are 1st on 18 points from 8. FSV Mainz 05 have won two of their last five; Bayern München are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws). One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

RB Leipzig v FC AugsburgSat 7 Nov, 14:30

Our model makes RB Leipzig 58%, the draw 20% and FC Augsburg 22%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.83 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 70%. The headline call is both teams to score at 70%. RB Leipzig are 4th on 15 points from 8; FC Augsburg are 9th on 9 points from 8. RB Leipzig have won three of their last five; FC Augsburg are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats). RB Leipzig have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

SC Paderborn 07 v Eintracht FrankfurtSat 7 Nov, 14:30

Our model makes SC Paderborn 07 43%, the draw 23% and Eintracht Frankfurt 34%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.59 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 70%. The headline call is both teams to score at 70%. SC Paderborn 07 are 12th on 9 points from 8; Eintracht Frankfurt are 15th on 8 points from 7. SC Paderborn 07 have won two of their last five; Eintracht Frankfurt have won two of their last five.

VfB Stuttgart v Werder BremenSat 7 Nov, 17:30

Our model makes VfB Stuttgart 62%, the draw 20% and Werder Bremen 18%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (10%), 3.44 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is VfB Stuttgart to win at 62%. VfB Stuttgart are 10th on 9 points from 8; Werder Bremen are 5th on 15 points from 8. VfB Stuttgart have won two of their last five; Werder Bremen are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws). One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

1. FC Köln v Bayer LeverkusenSun 8 Nov, 14:30

Our model makes 1. FC Köln 23%, the draw 22% and Bayer Leverkusen 55%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.34 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is Bayer Leverkusen to win at 55%. 1. FC Köln are 14th on 8 points from 7; Bayer Leverkusen are 6th on 13 points from 8. 1. FC Köln have won one of their last five; Bayer Leverkusen have won three of their last five. Bayer Leverkusen have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

SC Freiburg v Union BerlinSun 8 Nov, 16:30

Our model makes SC Freiburg 68%, the draw 18% and Union Berlin 14%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.67 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is SC Freiburg to win at 68%. SC Freiburg are 3rd on 16 points from 8; Union Berlin are 17th on 6 points from 7. SC Freiburg have won two of their last five; Union Berlin have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

1899 Hoffenheim v FC Schalke 04Sun 8 Nov, 18:30

Our model makes 1899 Hoffenheim 52%, the draw 25% and FC Schalke 04 23%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.79 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is 1899 Hoffenheim to win at 52%. 1899 Hoffenheim are 11th on 9 points from 8; FC Schalke 04 are 16th on 6 points from 8. 1899 Hoffenheim have won two of their last five; FC Schalke 04 are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats).

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

The model has published seven picks on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.