SC Freiburg v Union Berlin

3rd2–016th

16:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
SC Freiburg		Union Berlin
20	Shots	4
9	Shots on target	0
5	Corners	1
10	Fouls	17
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	3
537	Passes	368
59%	Possession %	41%
2.62	xG	0.36

Over 1.5: 88%
Over 2.5: 71%
Over 3.5: 50%
Both score: 62%

Model pick: SC Freiburg 68%
Likely score: 2-1 9%
Expected goals: 2.56 – 1.12

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	SC Freiburg	68.1%	1.47	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	+2.8
Match result	Draw	17.7%	5.66	4.90 Dafabet	20.4%	-2.8
Match result	Union Berlin	14.2%	7.04	7.50 BetVictor	13.3%	+0.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	88.5%	1.13	1.23 Betano	81.3%	+7.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	11.5%	8.68	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	-8.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	71.0%	1.41	1.70 Betano	58.8%	+12.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	29.0%	3.45	2.37 Betano	42.2%	-13.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	50.0%	2.00	2.75 Bet365	36.4%	+13.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	50.0%	2.00	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	-15.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	62.4%	1.60	1.85 Betano	54.1%	+8.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	37.6%	2.66	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	-7.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

SC Freiburg favoured against Union Berlin

Our model makes SC Freiburg 68% to win this Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 18% and Union Berlin at 14%. The goal projection is 2.56 for SC Freiburg against 1.12 for Union Berlin — a commanding edge to SC Freiburg on expected output. A combined 3.67 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 71% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. SC Freiburg is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 32% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-1 9%; 2-0 8%; 3-1 8%; 1-1 8%; 3-0 7%

This season

Season records for SC Freiburg and Union Berlin
SC Freiburg		Union Berlin
9	Played	9
6-1-2	W-D-L	1-4-4
2.11	Pts / game	0.78
2.22	Goals for / game	0.78
1.11	Goals against / game	2.33
78%	Over 2.5	44%
67%	BTTS	44%
33%	Clean sheets	22%
0%	Failed to score	44%
4-0-1	Home record	1-3-1
2-1-1	Away record	0-1-3
W2	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. SC Freiburg · Union Berlin

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.8	Shots	8.0
4.7	Shots on target	1.8
4.5	Corners	3.0
2.20	Cards	3.03
9.5	Fouls	12.2
52	Possession %	37
1.52	xG	0.98
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.5	Shots	16.8
3.8	Shots on target	5.8
2.8	Corners	5.5
1.00	Cards	1.87
12.0	Fouls	10.7
48	Possession %	63
1.37	xG	1.42
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
SC Freiburg	Metric	Union Berlin
1.40 (better)	Goals scored	0.60
2.20	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
1.24 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.07
	Big chances
2.40	Shots on target	2.75 (better)
13.20	Total shots	13.25 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.60 (better)	Corners	4.25
50.6 (better)	Possession %	39.3
470 (better)	Passes	345
	Tackles
9.20 (better)	Fouls	13.00
2.00	Offsides	1.50 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.75
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

SC Freiburg wins: 1
Draws: 1
Union Berlin wins: 1
Goals / game: 1.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Bundesliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Bayern München	9	6	3	0	+20	21	Bayern München won 3 of the last 5
2	Borussia Dortmund	9	6	3	0	+9	21	Borussia Dortmund won 2 of the last 5
3	SC Freiburg	9	6	1	2	+10	19	SC Freiburg won 3 of the last 5
4	RB Leipzig	9	6	0	3	+14	18	RB Leipzig won 4 of the last 5
5	Bayer Leverkusen	9	5	1	3	+3	16	Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the last 5
6	Werder Bremen	9	4	3	2	+2	15	Werder Bremen won 2 of the last 5
7	SV Elversberg	9	4	1	4	-1	13	SV Elversberg won 2 of the last 5
8	VfB Stuttgart	9	4	0	5	0	12	VfB Stuttgart won 3 of the last 5
9	1899 Hoffenheim	9	4	0	5	-1	12	1899 Hoffenheim won 3 of the last 5
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	9	3	3	3	-5	12	Eintracht Frankfurt won 2 of the last 5
11	Hamburger SV	9	4	0	5	-10	12	Hamburger SV won 3 of the last 5
12	FSV Mainz 05	9	3	1	5	-1	10	FSV Mainz 05 won 1 of the last 5
13	SC Paderborn 07	9	2	4	3	-3	10	SC Paderborn 07 won 1 of the last 5
14	FC Augsburg	9	2	3	4	0	9	FC Augsburg won 0 of the last 5
15	1. FC Köln	9	2	3	4	-4	9	1. FC Köln won 1 of the last 5
16	Union Berlin	9	1	4	4	-14	7	Union Berlin won 1 of the last 5
17	FC Schalke 04	9	1	3	5	-6	6	FC Schalke 04 won 0 of the last 5
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	9	1	1	7	-13	4	Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1 of the last 5