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Bundesliga predictions: matchweek 8 (30 October – 1 November 2026)

Every Bundesliga match in matchweek 8 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 23 Oct 2026, updated 25 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Bundesliga, matchweek 8: nine matches, played across 30 October – 1 November 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Bayern München, 64% to beat Borussia Dortmund at home; the most evenly balanced game is Werder Bremen v 1899 Hoffenheim (Werder Bremen 38%, draw 23%, 1899 Hoffenheim 39%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Bayern München v Borussia Dortmund, at 3.84; the tightest looks FC Schalke 04 v RB Leipzig, at 2.97.

Going into the round, Borussia Dortmund lead on 17 points, three points clear of Bayern München, with SC Freiburg third on 13. The bottom three are FC Schalke 04 (6), Union Berlin (6), Borussia Mönchengladbach (3).

The numbers this season

Bundesliga has averaged 3.56 goals a game over 61 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 70% of them and both sides scoring in 57%. Home sides have won 51% of matches, 21% have been drawn and away sides have won 28%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

SV Elversberg v FSV Mainz 05Fri 30 Oct, 19:30

Our model makes SV Elversberg 42%, the draw 23% and FSV Mainz 05 35%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.54 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 69%. The headline call is both teams to score at 69%. SV Elversberg are 8th on 10 points from 7; FSV Mainz 05 are 7th on 10 points from 7. SV Elversberg have won one of their last five; FSV Mainz 05 have won two of their last five.

Bayer Leverkusen v VfB StuttgartSat 31 Oct, 14:30

Our model makes Bayer Leverkusen 49%, the draw 23% and VfB Stuttgart 27%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.23 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is both teams to score at 63%. Bayer Leverkusen are 4th on 13 points from 6; VfB Stuttgart are 15th on 6 points from 7. Bayer Leverkusen are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw); VfB Stuttgart have won one of their last five. VfB Stuttgart have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Borussia Mönchengladbach v SC Paderborn 07Sat 31 Oct, 14:30

Our model makes Borussia Mönchengladbach 39%, the draw 24% and SC Paderborn 07 37%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.26 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 65%. The headline call is both teams to score at 65%. Borussia Mönchengladbach are 18th on 3 points from 7; SC Paderborn 07 are 12th on 8 points from 7. Borussia Mönchengladbach have won one of their last five; SC Paderborn 07 have won two of their last five.

FC Augsburg v SC FreiburgSat 31 Oct, 14:30

Our model makes FC Augsburg 35%, the draw 23% and SC Freiburg 42%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.52 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 69%. The headline call is both teams to score at 69%. FC Augsburg are 9th on 9 points from 7; SC Freiburg are 3rd on 13 points from 6. FC Augsburg are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats); SC Freiburg have won three of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

FC Schalke 04 v RB LeipzigSat 31 Oct, 14:30

Our model makes FC Schalke 04 31%, the draw 25% and RB Leipzig 44%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.97 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is both teams to score at 60%. FC Schalke 04 are 16th on 6 points from 7; RB Leipzig are 5th on 12 points from 7. FC Schalke 04 have won one of their last five; RB Leipzig have won three of their last five.

Werder Bremen v 1899 HoffenheimSat 31 Oct, 14:30

Our model makes Werder Bremen 38%, the draw 23% and 1899 Hoffenheim 39%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.50 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 69%. The headline call is both teams to score at 69%. Werder Bremen are 6th on 12 points from 7; 1899 Hoffenheim are 14th on 6 points from 6. Werder Bremen are unbeaten in five (two wins, three draws); 1899 Hoffenheim have won two of their last five. 1899 Hoffenheim have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Bayern München v Borussia DortmundSat 31 Oct, 17:30

Our model makes Bayern München 64%, the draw 18% and Borussia Dortmund 17%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.84 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 67%. The headline call is Bayern München to win at 64%. Bayern München are 2nd on 14 points from 6; Borussia Dortmund are 1st on 17 points from 7. Bayern München are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws). Bayern München have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Union Berlin v 1. FC KölnSun 1 Nov, 14:30

Our model makes Union Berlin 44%, the draw 25% and 1. FC Köln 31%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.12 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is both teams to score at 62%. Union Berlin are 17th on 6 points from 7; 1. FC Köln are 11th on 8 points from 7. Union Berlin have won one of their last five; 1. FC Köln have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Eintracht Frankfurt v Hamburger SVSun 1 Nov, 16:30

Our model makes Eintracht Frankfurt 52%, the draw 22% and Hamburger SV 26%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.55 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 68%. The headline call is both teams to score at 68%. Eintracht Frankfurt are 13th on 8 points from 7; Hamburger SV are 10th on 9 points from 7. Eintracht Frankfurt have won two of their last five; Hamburger SV have won three of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

The model has published nine picks on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.