FC Augsburg won 0 of the last 5LLDLD14th1–2SC Freiburg won 3 of the last 5WWLLW3rd
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
FC Augsburg
SC Freiburg
15
Shots
10
5
Shots on target
2
1
Corners
2
7
Fouls
11
0
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
2
Offsides
2
486
Passes
456
55%
Possession %
45%
1.53
xG
1.45
35%
23%
42%
1 · FC AugsburgXSC Freiburg · 2
Over 1.5
87%
Over 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
47%
Both score
69%
Model pick
SC Freiburg 42%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.85
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
FC Augsburg
35.0%
2.86
3.10 Bet365
32.3%
+2.8
Match result
Draw
23.0%
4.34
3.85 Betano
26.0%
-2.9
Match result
SC Freiburg
41.9%
2.38
2.31 Dafabet
43.3%
-1.3
Total goals
Over 1.5
87.1%
1.15
1.16 Betano
86.2%
+0.9
Total goals
Under 1.5
12.9%
7.75
6.00 Bet365
16.7%
-3.8
Total goals
Over 2.5
68.3%
1.46
1.50 Bet365
66.7%
+1.6
Total goals
Under 2.5
31.7%
3.16
2.75 Bet365
36.4%
-4.7
Total goals
Over 3.5
46.8%
2.14
2.22 Betano
45.0%
+1.8
Total goals
Under 3.5
53.2%
1.88
1.73 Bet365
57.8%
-4.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
68.9%
1.45
1.44 William Hill
69.4%
-0.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
31.1%
3.22
2.80 Betfair
35.7%
-4.6
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
SC Freiburg favoured against FC Augsburg
Our model makes FC Augsburg 35% to win this Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 23% and SC Freiburg at 42%. The goal projection is 1.68 for FC Augsburg against 1.85 for SC Freiburg — a slight edge to SC Freiburg on expected output. A combined 3.52 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 68% and both teams to score at 69%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
FC Augsburg
Metric
SC Freiburg
2.20 (better)
Goals scored
2.00
2.60
Goals conceded
2.00 (better)
2.13 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.27
—
Big chances *
—
5.50 (better)
Shots on target
4.00
14.00
Total shots
14.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.25
Corners
6.50 (better)
40.3
Possession %
53.5 (better)
365
Passes
492 (better)
—
Tackles
—
10.25 (better)
Fouls
11.25
1.00
Offsides
0.25 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.25
Yellow cards
1.50 (better)
0.00 (better)
Red cards
1.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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FC Augsburg v 
SC Freiburg