Borussia Mönchengladbach v SC Paderborn 07

18th0–013th

14:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Borussia Mönchengladbach		SC Paderborn 07
12	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	4
4	Corners	7
10	Fouls	9
2	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	3
381	Passes	513
43%	Possession %	57%
1.07	xG	1.04

Over 1.5: 84%
Over 2.5: 63%
Over 3.5: 41%
Both score: 65%

Model pick: Borussia Mönchengladbach 39%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.66 – 1.60

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Borussia Mönchengladbach	39.2%	2.55	2.22 Betano	45.0%	-5.8
Match result	Draw	24.2%	4.13	4.20 Betfair	23.8%	+0.4
Match result	SC Paderborn 07	36.6%	2.74	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	+8.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	84.1%	1.19	1.18 Betano	84.7%	-0.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	15.9%	6.30	6.00 BetVictor	16.7%	-0.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	63.2%	1.58	1.55 Betano	64.5%	-1.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	36.8%	2.72	2.65 Betano	37.7%	-0.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	41.0%	2.44	2.32 Betano	43.1%	-2.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	59.0%	1.70	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-0.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	65.1%	1.54	1.47 Betano	68.0%	-2.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	34.9%	2.87	2.80 Betfair	35.7%	-0.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Borussia Mönchengladbach v SC Paderborn 07: too close to call

Our model makes Borussia Mönchengladbach 39% to win this Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 24% and SC Paderborn 07 at 37%. The goal projection is 1.66 for Borussia Mönchengladbach against 1.60 for SC Paderborn 07 — almost nothing to Borussia Mönchengladbach on expected output. A combined 3.26 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 63% and both teams to score at 65%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 8%; 1-2 8%; 2-2 7%; 1-0 6%

This season

Season records for Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Paderborn 07
Borussia Mönchengladbach		SC Paderborn 07
9	Played	9
1-1-7	W-D-L	2-4-3
0.44	Pts / game	1.11
1.33	Goals for / game	0.89
2.78	Goals against / game	1.22
89%	Over 2.5	44%
67%	BTTS	33%
11%	Clean sheets	33%
33%	Failed to score	56%
0-1-3	Home record	2-1-2
1-0-4	Away record	0-3-1
L1	Streak	D2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Borussia Mönchengladbach · SC Paderborn 07

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.5	Shots	14.7
5.5	Shots on target	4.7
4.5	Corners	5.2
3.37	Cards	1.17
13.7	Fouls	10.8
43	Possession %	49
1.86	xG	1.53
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.0	Shots	15.8
6.8	Shots on target	4.8
5.7	Corners	4.7
2.33	Cards	1.37
9.8	Fouls	12.3
57	Possession %	51
1.84	xG	1.80
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Borussia Mönchengladbach	Metric	SC Paderborn 07
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
1.80	Goals conceded	1.60 (better)
1.63 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.07
	Big chances
5.67 (better)	Shots on target	3.75
15.33 (better)	Total shots	14.50
	Touches in opp. box
5.00 (better)	Corners	4.75
49.0 (better)	Possession %	42.5
416	Passes	418 (better)
	Tackles
14.00	Fouls	9.25 (better)
1.33	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
4.00	Yellow cards	0.75 (better)
	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Borussia Mönchengladbach wins: 0
Draws: 1
SC Paderborn 07 wins: 0
Goals / game: 0.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Borussia Mönchengladbach v SC Paderborn 070–02026-10-31

Bundesliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Bayern München	9	6	3	0	+20	21	Bayern München won 3 of the last 5
2	Borussia Dortmund	9	6	3	0	+9	21	Borussia Dortmund won 2 of the last 5
3	SC Freiburg	9	6	1	2	+10	19	SC Freiburg won 3 of the last 5
4	RB Leipzig	9	6	0	3	+14	18	RB Leipzig won 4 of the last 5
5	Bayer Leverkusen	9	5	1	3	+3	16	Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the last 5
6	Werder Bremen	9	4	3	2	+2	15	Werder Bremen won 2 of the last 5
7	SV Elversberg	9	4	1	4	-1	13	SV Elversberg won 2 of the last 5
8	VfB Stuttgart	9	4	0	5	0	12	VfB Stuttgart won 3 of the last 5
9	1899 Hoffenheim	9	4	0	5	-1	12	1899 Hoffenheim won 3 of the last 5
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	9	3	3	3	-5	12	Eintracht Frankfurt won 2 of the last 5
11	Hamburger SV	9	4	0	5	-10	12	Hamburger SV won 3 of the last 5
12	FSV Mainz 05	9	3	1	5	-1	10	FSV Mainz 05 won 1 of the last 5
13	SC Paderborn 07	9	2	4	3	-3	10	SC Paderborn 07 won 1 of the last 5
14	FC Augsburg	9	2	3	4	0	9	FC Augsburg won 0 of the last 5
15	1. FC Köln	9	2	3	4	-4	9	1. FC Köln won 1 of the last 5
16	Union Berlin	9	1	4	4	-14	7	Union Berlin won 1 of the last 5
17	FC Schalke 04	9	1	3	5	-6	6	FC Schalke 04 won 0 of the last 5
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	9	1	1	7	-13	4	Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1 of the last 5