FC Schalke 04 won 0 of the last 5LLDLL17th0–2RB Leipzig won 4 of the last 5WWWLW4th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
FC Schalke 04
RB Leipzig
6
Shots
18
1
Shots on target
10
3
Corners
7
16
Fouls
16
2
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
4
365
Passes
559
40%
Possession %
60%
0.58
xG
3.30
31%
25%
44%
1 · FC Schalke 04XRB Leipzig · 2
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
35%
Both score
60%
Model pick
RB Leipzig 44%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.63
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
FC Schalke 04
31.1%
3.22
4.20 Betfair
23.8%
+7.3
Match result
Draw
25.3%
3.95
4.10 Betano
24.4%
+0.9
Match result
RB Leipzig
43.6%
2.29
1.90 Bet365
52.6%
-9.0
Total goals
Over 1.5
80.2%
1.25
1.17 Bet365
85.5%
-5.3
Total goals
Under 1.5
19.8%
5.05
6.50 BetVictor
15.4%
+4.4
Total goals
Over 2.5
57.0%
1.75
1.53 Bet365
65.4%
-8.4
Total goals
Under 2.5
43.0%
2.33
2.80 Betano
35.7%
+7.3
Total goals
Over 3.5
34.6%
2.89
2.30 Bet365
43.5%
-8.9
Total goals
Under 3.5
65.4%
1.53
1.73 Bet365
57.8%
+7.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
59.9%
1.67
1.53 William Hill
65.4%
-5.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
40.1%
2.50
2.88 BetVictor
34.7%
+5.4
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
RB Leipzig favoured against FC Schalke 04
Our model makes FC Schalke 04 31% to win this Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 25% and RB Leipzig at 44%. The goal projection is 1.34 for FC Schalke 04 against 1.63 for RB Leipzig — a clear edge to RB Leipzig on expected output. A combined 2.97 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
FC Schalke 04
Metric
RB Leipzig
1.40
Goals scored
1.80 (better)
1.00 (better)
Goals conceded
2.40
0.59
Expected goals (xG)
1.89 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
1.67
Shots on target
6.00 (better)
9.00
Total shots
14.80 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.33
Corners
3.80 (better)
45.7 (better)
Possession %
42.4
394
Passes
415 (better)
—
Tackles
—
11.67
Fouls
11.00 (better)
3.33
Offsides
1.20 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
0.67 (better)
Yellow cards
1.20
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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FC Schalke 04 v 
RB Leipzig