Bayern München v Borussia Dortmund

1st2–22nd

17:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Bayern München		Borussia Dortmund
23	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	6
5	Corners	2
11	Fouls	6
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	3
603	Passes	483
56%	Possession %	44%
4.53	xG	0.77

Over 1.5: 90%
Over 2.5: 74%
Over 3.5: 54%
Both score: 67%

Model pick: Bayern München 64%
Likely score: 2-1 9%
Expected goals: 2.55 – 1.30

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Bayern München	64.1%	1.56	1.35 Betano	74.1%	-10.0
Match result	Draw	18.4%	5.43	6.40 Dafabet	15.6%	+2.8
Match result	Borussia Dortmund	17.5%	5.72	8.50 Bet365	11.8%	+5.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	90.0%	1.11	1.09 Betano	91.7%	-1.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	10.0%	9.98	9.50 BetVictor	10.5%	-0.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	73.8%	1.35	1.30 Bet365	76.9%	-3.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	26.2%	3.82	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	+3.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	53.5%	1.87	1.75 Betano	57.1%	-3.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	46.5%	2.15	2.30 Bet365	43.5%	+3.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	67.3%	1.49	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	+2.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	32.7%	3.06	2.90 William Hill	34.5%	-1.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Bayern München favoured against Borussia Dortmund

Our model makes Bayern München 64% to win this Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 18% and Borussia Dortmund at 17%. The goal projection is 2.55 for Bayern München against 1.30 for Borussia Dortmund — a commanding edge to Bayern München on expected output. A combined 3.84 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 74% and both teams to score at 67%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Bayern München is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 36% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-1 9%; 3-1 8%; 1-1 7%; 2-0 7%; 3-0 6%

This season

Season records for Bayern München and Borussia Dortmund
Bayern München		Borussia Dortmund
9	Played	9
6-3-0	W-D-L	6-3-0
2.33	Pts / game	2.33
3.22	Goals for / game	1.78
1.00	Goals against / game	0.78
89%	Over 2.5	56%
78%	BTTS	44%
22%	Clean sheets	56%
11%	Failed to score	11%
3-1-0	Home record	4-1-0
3-2-0	Away record	2-2-0
W1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Bayern München · Borussia Dortmund

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
24.7	Shots	15.5
10.8	Shots on target	5.0
8.0	Corners	6.2
1.00	Cards	2.33
10.5	Fouls	10.7
64	Possession %	55
3.75	xG	1.51
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.8	Shots	13.5
3.7	Shots on target	4.0
4.0	Corners	4.3
1.67	Cards	1.83
8.0	Fouls	11.0
37	Possession %	45
1.17	xG	1.75
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Bayern München	Metric	Borussia Dortmund
4.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
1.60	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
3.62 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.89
	Big chances
11.00 (better)	Shots on target	5.20
24.00 (better)	Total shots	15.00
	Touches in opp. box
9.40 (better)	Corners	7.00
61.4 (better)	Possession %	57.0
591 (better)	Passes	568
	Tackles
11.20 (better)	Fouls	11.40
2.80	Offsides	1.60 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.20 (better)	Yellow cards	2.40
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Bayern München wins: 2
Draws: 1
Borussia Dortmund wins: 0
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Bayern München v Borussia Dortmund2–22026-10-31
Borussia Dortmund v Bayern München2–32026-02-28
Bayern München v Borussia Dortmund2–12025-10-18

Bundesliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Bayern München	9	6	3	0	+20	21	Bayern München won 3 of the last 5
2	Borussia Dortmund	9	6	3	0	+9	21	Borussia Dortmund won 2 of the last 5
3	SC Freiburg	9	6	1	2	+10	19	SC Freiburg won 3 of the last 5
4	RB Leipzig	9	6	0	3	+14	18	RB Leipzig won 4 of the last 5
5	Bayer Leverkusen	9	5	1	3	+3	16	Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the last 5
6	Werder Bremen	9	4	3	2	+2	15	Werder Bremen won 2 of the last 5
7	SV Elversberg	9	4	1	4	-1	13	SV Elversberg won 2 of the last 5
8	VfB Stuttgart	9	4	0	5	0	12	VfB Stuttgart won 3 of the last 5
9	1899 Hoffenheim	9	4	0	5	-1	12	1899 Hoffenheim won 3 of the last 5
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	9	3	3	3	-5	12	Eintracht Frankfurt won 2 of the last 5
11	Hamburger SV	9	4	0	5	-10	12	Hamburger SV won 3 of the last 5
12	FSV Mainz 05	9	3	1	5	-1	10	FSV Mainz 05 won 1 of the last 5
13	SC Paderborn 07	9	2	4	3	-3	10	SC Paderborn 07 won 1 of the last 5
14	FC Augsburg	9	2	3	4	0	9	FC Augsburg won 0 of the last 5
15	1. FC Köln	9	2	3	4	-4	9	1. FC Köln won 1 of the last 5
16	Union Berlin	9	1	4	4	-14	7	Union Berlin won 1 of the last 5
17	FC Schalke 04	9	1	3	5	-6	6	FC Schalke 04 won 0 of the last 5
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	9	1	1	7	-13	4	Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1 of the last 5