Eintracht Frankfurt v Hamburger SV

10th3–111th

16:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Eintracht Frankfurt		Hamburger SV
15	Shots	12
10	Shots on target	3
6	Corners	6
10	Fouls	10
2	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	3
434	Passes	391
52%	Possession %	48%
2.03	xG	1.12

Over 1.5: 87%
Over 2.5: 69%
Over 3.5: 47%
Both score: 68%

Model pick: Eintracht Frankfurt 52%
Likely score: 1-1 9%
Expected goals: 2.09 – 1.46

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Over 3.5	47.3%	2.11	2.10 Bet365	47.6%	-0.3
Match result	Eintracht Frankfurt	51.7%	1.94	1.67 Betfair	59.9%	-8.2
Match result	Draw	22.0%	4.55	4.90 Betano	20.4%	+1.6
Match result	Hamburger SV	26.3%	3.80	5.50 Bet365	18.2%	+8.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	87.3%	1.15	1.13 Betano	88.5%	-1.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	12.7%	7.89	7.00 BetVictor	14.3%	-1.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	68.8%	1.45	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	-0.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	31.2%	3.20	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	-2.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	52.7%	1.90	1.83 Betano	54.6%	-2.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	67.7%	1.48	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	+1.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	32.3%	3.09	2.70 BetVictor	37.0%	-4.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Eintracht Frankfurt favoured against Hamburger SV

Our model makes Eintracht Frankfurt 52% to win this Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 22% and Hamburger SV at 26%. The goal projection is 2.09 for Eintracht Frankfurt against 1.46 for Hamburger SV — a substantial edge to Eintracht Frankfurt on expected output. A combined 3.55 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 69% and both teams to score at 68%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 9%; 2-1 9%; 2-2 7%; 1-2 6%; 3-1 6%

This season

Season records for Eintracht Frankfurt and Hamburger SV
Eintracht Frankfurt		Hamburger SV
9	Played	9
3-3-3	W-D-L	4-0-5
1.33	Pts / game	1.33
1.67	Goals for / game	1.11
2.22	Goals against / game	2.22
78%	Over 2.5	67%
67%	BTTS	44%
11%	Clean sheets	11%
22%	Failed to score	44%
2-1-1	Home record	3-0-1
1-2-2	Away record	1-0-4
D1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Eintracht Frankfurt · Hamburger SV

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.7	Shots	13.2
5.8	Shots on target	4.5
4.8	Corners	4.2
2.17	Cards	2.00
11.3	Fouls	11.8
49	Possession %	44
1.61	xG	1.35
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.3	Shots	18.2
5.2	Shots on target	6.0
5.3	Corners	6.0
1.67	Cards	1.73
12.5	Fouls	12.0
51	Possession %	56
1.99	xG	1.82
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Eintracht Frankfurt	Metric	Hamburger SV
1.40	Goals scored	1.60 (better)
1.80	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
1.59 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.18
	Big chances
5.50 (better)	Shots on target	3.75
12.75 (better)	Total shots	12.25
	Touches in opp. box
4.25 (better)	Corners	3.50
48.0 (better)	Possession %	35.0
407 (better)	Passes	305
	Tackles
11.25 (better)	Fouls	13.75
2.00	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.25	Yellow cards	1.50 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Eintracht Frankfurt wins: 1
Draws: 1
Hamburger SV wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 100%

Eintracht Frankfurt v Hamburger SV3–12026-11-01
Eintracht Frankfurt v Hamburger SV1–22026-05-02
Hamburger SV v Eintracht Frankfurt1–12025-12-20

Bundesliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Bayern München	9	6	3	0	+20	21	Bayern München won 3 of the last 5
2	Borussia Dortmund	9	6	3	0	+9	21	Borussia Dortmund won 2 of the last 5
3	SC Freiburg	9	6	1	2	+10	19	SC Freiburg won 3 of the last 5
4	RB Leipzig	9	6	0	3	+14	18	RB Leipzig won 4 of the last 5
5	Bayer Leverkusen	9	5	1	3	+3	16	Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the last 5
6	Werder Bremen	9	4	3	2	+2	15	Werder Bremen won 2 of the last 5
7	SV Elversberg	9	4	1	4	-1	13	SV Elversberg won 2 of the last 5
8	VfB Stuttgart	9	4	0	5	0	12	VfB Stuttgart won 3 of the last 5
9	1899 Hoffenheim	9	4	0	5	-1	12	1899 Hoffenheim won 3 of the last 5
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	9	3	3	3	-5	12	Eintracht Frankfurt won 2 of the last 5
11	Hamburger SV	9	4	0	5	-10	12	Hamburger SV won 3 of the last 5
12	FSV Mainz 05	9	3	1	5	-1	10	FSV Mainz 05 won 1 of the last 5
13	SC Paderborn 07	9	2	4	3	-3	10	SC Paderborn 07 won 1 of the last 5
14	FC Augsburg	9	2	3	4	0	9	FC Augsburg won 0 of the last 5
15	1. FC Köln	9	2	3	4	-4	9	1. FC Köln won 1 of the last 5
16	Union Berlin	9	1	4	4	-14	7	Union Berlin won 1 of the last 5
17	FC Schalke 04	9	1	3	5	-6	6	FC Schalke 04 won 0 of the last 5
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	9	1	1	7	-13	4	Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1 of the last 5