SV Elversberg v 
FSV Mainz 05
Match statistics
| SV Elversberg | FSV Mainz 05 | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 11 |
| 8 | Fouls | 22 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
| 0 | Offsides | 2 |
| 406 | Passes | 336 |
| 54% | Possession % | 46% |
| 1.02 | xG | 1.23 |
- Over 1.5
- 87%
- Over 2.5
- 69%
- Over 3.5
- 47%
- Both score
- 69%
- Model pick
- SV Elversberg 42%
- Likely score
- 1-1 10%
- Expected goals
- 1.85 – 1.70
Advised bets
Won
Free pick
Edge strength 5 of 5SV Elversberg 0
Why this price?
Back SV Elversberg 0 on the Asian handicap at 2.44 with Marathonbet — SV Elversberg to win; a draw returns the stake.
Our model puts the chance at 54% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 39%; we judge it at 45%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.23. The offered 2.44 implies only 41%, so the price is 9.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.67 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: SV Elversberg 1.85, FSV Mainz 05 1.70.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | SV Elversberg | 41.5% | 2.41 | 3.40 Bet365 | 29.4% | +12.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 23.0% | 4.35 | 3.90 Betfair | 25.6% | -2.7 |
| Match result | FSV Mainz 05 | 35.5% | 2.82 | 2.20 Dafabet | 45.5% | -10.0 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 87.3% | 1.15 | 1.17 Betano | 85.5% | +1.8 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 12.7% | 7.88 | 6.00 BetVictor | 16.7% | -4.0 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 68.7% | 1.46 | 1.52 Betano | 65.8% | +2.9 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 31.3% | 3.19 | 2.67 Betano | 37.5% | -6.1 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 47.3% | 2.12 | 2.27 Betano | 44.1% | +3.2 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 52.7% | 1.90 | 1.67 Bet365 | 59.9% | -7.1 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 69.2% | 1.44 | 1.45 Betano | 69.0% | +0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 30.8% | 3.25 | 2.80 Betfair | 35.7% | -4.9 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
SV Elversberg v FSV Mainz 05: too close to call
Our model makes SV Elversberg 42% to win this Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 23% and FSV Mainz 05 at 35%. The goal projection is 1.85 for SV Elversberg against 1.70 for FSV Mainz 05 — a slight edge to SV Elversberg on expected output. A combined 3.54 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 69% and both teams to score at 69%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 10%
- 2-1 8%
- 1-2 8%
- 2-2 7%
- 3-1 5%
This season
| SV Elversberg | FSV Mainz 05 | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Played | 9 |
| 4-1-4 | W-D-L | 3-1-5 |
| 1.44 | Pts / game | 1.11 |
| 1.89 | Goals for / game | 2.00 |
| 2.00 | Goals against / game | 2.11 |
| 78% | Over 2.5 | 78% |
| 67% | BTTS | 67% |
| 11% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 11% |
| 3-0-1 | Home record | 0-1-4 |
| 1-1-3 | Away record | 3-0-1 |
| L1 | Streak | L3 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. SV Elversberg · FSV Mainz 05
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 11.8 | Shots | 14.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.2 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 4.7 | Corners | 5.5 |
| 1.50 | Cards | 2.75 |
| 12.0 | Fouls | 13.7 |
| 51 | Possession % | 47 |
| 1.41 | xG | 1.88 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 17.2 | Shots | 17.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.8 | Shots on target | 6.7 |
| 7.3 | Corners | 5.5 |
| 2.37 | Cards | 1.50 |
| 14.0 | Fouls | 9.2 |
| 49 | Possession % | 53 |
| 2.25 | xG | 1.95 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| SV Elversberg | Metric | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored | 2.40 (better) |
| 1.60 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.00 |
| 1.49 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.50 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.00 | Shots on target | 6.00 (better) |
| 10.50 | Total shots | 17.00 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.50 (better) | Corners | 3.25 |
| 46.0 | Possession % | 52.0 (better) |
| 410 | Passes | 465 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.00 (better) | Fouls | 14.00 |
| 3.50 | Offsides | 2.50 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.25 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.50 |
| Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- SV Elversberg wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- FSV Mainz 05 wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 5.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- SV Elversberg v FSV Mainz 054–12026-10-30
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +20 | 21 | Bayern München won 3 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +9 | 21 | Borussia Dortmund won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +10 | 19 | SC Freiburg won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | +14 | 18 | RB Leipzig won 4 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 16 | Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 15 | Werder Bremen won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | SV Elversberg | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 13 | SV Elversberg won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | VfB Stuttgart | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 12 | VfB Stuttgart won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 12 | 1899 Hoffenheim won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 12 | Eintracht Frankfurt won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 12 | Hamburger SV won 3 of the last 5 |
| 12 | FSV Mainz 05 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 10 | FSV Mainz 05 won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 | SC Paderborn 07 won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | FC Augsburg | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9 | FC Augsburg won 0 of the last 5 |
| 15 | 1. FC Köln | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 | 1. FC Köln won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -14 | 7 | Union Berlin won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | FC Schalke 04 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 6 | FC Schalke 04 won 0 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 4 | Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1 of the last 5 |