Bundesliga · Review

Bundesliga matchweek 7 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Bundesliga result from matchweek 7 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 25 Oct 2026, updated 26 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Bundesliga, matchweek 7 (23–25 October 2026), is complete: nine matches, 25 goals (2.78 a game), four home wins, two draws and three away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in five of the nine and both teams scored in four.

The result the model rated least likely was Borussia Mönchengladbach's win in VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Mönchengladbach (2–3), which it had at 15%; the one it rated most likely was Borussia Dortmund's win in Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt (1–0), at 65%.

After the round, Bayern München lead on goal difference from Borussia Dortmund, both on 17 points, with SC Freiburg third on 13. The bottom three are FC Schalke 04 (6), Union Berlin (6), Borussia Mönchengladbach (3).

Match by match

VfB Stuttgart 2–3 Borussia MönchengladbachFri 23 Oct, 19:30

Before kick-off the model had VfB Stuttgart 67%, the draw 18% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 15%, with VfB Stuttgart favoured; it put Borussia Mönchengladbach winning at 15%. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 1.60–2.66: Borussia Mönchengladbach created the better chances. The headline call, VfB Stuttgart to win at 67%, did not come in. Pick published: VfB Stuttgart -0.75 at 1.45 (free pick) — lost.

1. FC Köln 0–0 FC Schalke 04Sat 24 Oct, 14:30

Before kick-off the model had 1. FC Köln 36%, the draw 26% and FC Schalke 04 37%, with FC Schalke 04 favoured; it put the draw at 26%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.29–0.66: 1. FC Köln created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 57%, did not come in. Pick published: 1. FC Köln -0.75 at 2.27 (free pick) — lost.

FC Augsburg 1–1 Union BerlinSat 24 Oct, 14:30

Before kick-off the model had FC Augsburg 54%, the draw 22% and Union Berlin 24%, with FC Augsburg favoured; it put the draw at 22%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 1.91–1.24: FC Augsburg created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 64%, came in.

FSV Mainz 05 2–3 Werder BremenSat 24 Oct, 14:30

Before kick-off the model had FSV Mainz 05 54%, the draw 23% and Werder Bremen 23%, with FSV Mainz 05 favoured; it put Werder Bremen winning at 23%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.73–2.58: Werder Bremen created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 62%, came in.

RB Leipzig 4–0 SV ElversbergSat 24 Oct, 14:30

Before kick-off the model had RB Leipzig 57%, the draw 21% and SV Elversberg 22%, so RB Leipzig winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 2.91–0.68: RB Leipzig created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 67%, did not come in.

SC Paderborn 07 1–0 Hamburger SVSat 24 Oct, 14:30

Before kick-off the model had SC Paderborn 07 48%, the draw 25% and Hamburger SV 27%, so SC Paderborn 07 winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.21–0.49: SC Paderborn 07 created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 59%, did not come in. Pick published: SC Paderborn 07 -0.25 at 2.05 — won.

Borussia Dortmund 1–0 Eintracht FrankfurtSat 24 Oct, 17:30

Before kick-off the model had Borussia Dortmund 65%, the draw 18% and Eintracht Frankfurt 17%, so Borussia Dortmund winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 1.56–0.91: Borussia Dortmund created the better chances. The headline call, Borussia Dortmund to win at 65%, came in.

1899 Hoffenheim 3–0 Bayer LeverkusenSun 25 Oct, 14:30

Before kick-off the model had 1899 Hoffenheim 26%, the draw 21% and Bayer Leverkusen 53%, with Bayer Leverkusen favoured; it put 1899 Hoffenheim winning at 26%. The likeliest score had been 1-2. Expected goals were 3.34–0.68: 1899 Hoffenheim created the better chances. The headline call, Bayer Leverkusen to win at 53%, did not come in.

SC Freiburg 1–3 Bayern MünchenSun 25 Oct, 16:30

Before kick-off the model had SC Freiburg 23%, the draw 19% and Bayern München 58%, so Bayern München winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-2. Expected goals were 1.08–2.96: Bayern München created the better chances. The headline call, Bayern München to win at 58%, came in. Pick published: Bayern München +0.5 at 1.40 (free pick) — won.

The numbers this season

Bundesliga has averaged 3.56 goals a game over 63 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 71% of them and both sides scoring in 57%. Home sides have won 51% of matches, 21% have been drawn and away sides have won 29%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.