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Bundesliga predictions: matchweek 7 (23–25 October 2026)

Every Bundesliga match in matchweek 7 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 16 Oct 2026, updated 18 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Bundesliga, matchweek 7: nine matches, played across 23–25 October 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is VfB Stuttgart, 67% to beat Borussia Mönchengladbach at home; the most evenly balanced game is 1. FC Köln v FC Schalke 04 (1. FC Köln 36%, draw 26%, FC Schalke 04 37%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is SC Freiburg v Bayern München, at 4.31; the tightest looks 1. FC Köln v FC Schalke 04, at 2.81.

Going into the round, Bayern München lead on goal difference from Borussia Dortmund, both on 14 points, with SC Freiburg third on 13. The bottom three are Union Berlin (5), 1899 Hoffenheim (3), Borussia Mönchengladbach (0).

The numbers this season

Bundesliga has averaged 3.71 goals a game over 52 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 73% of them and both sides scoring in 58%. Home sides have won 52% of matches, 21% have been drawn and away sides have won 27%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

VfB Stuttgart v Borussia MönchengladbachFri 23 Oct, 19:30

Our model makes VfB Stuttgart 67%, the draw 18% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 15%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.78 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 65%. The headline call is VfB Stuttgart to win at 67%. VfB Stuttgart are 13th on 6 points from 6; Borussia Mönchengladbach are 18th on 0 points from 5. VfB Stuttgart have won two of their last five; Borussia Mönchengladbach have lost all of their last five. VfB Stuttgart have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

1. FC Köln v FC Schalke 04Sat 24 Oct, 14:30

Our model makes 1. FC Köln 36%, the draw 26% and FC Schalke 04 37%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.81 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is both teams to score at 57%. 1. FC Köln are 12th on 7 points from 6; FC Schalke 04 are 14th on 5 points from 6. 1. FC Köln have won one of their last five; FC Schalke 04 have won one of their last five.

FC Augsburg v Union BerlinSat 24 Oct, 14:30

Our model makes FC Augsburg 54%, the draw 22% and Union Berlin 24%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.33 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 64%. The headline call is both teams to score at 64%. FC Augsburg are 10th on 8 points from 6; Union Berlin are 16th on 5 points from 6. FC Augsburg have won one of their last five; Union Berlin have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

FSV Mainz 05 v Werder BremenSat 24 Oct, 14:30

Our model makes FSV Mainz 05 54%, the draw 23% and Werder Bremen 23%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.24 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is both teams to score at 62%. FSV Mainz 05 are 5th on 10 points from 6; Werder Bremen are 8th on 9 points from 6. FSV Mainz 05 have won three of their last five; Werder Bremen are unbeaten in five (two wins, three draws). One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

RB Leipzig v SV ElversbergSat 24 Oct, 14:30

Our model makes RB Leipzig 57%, the draw 21% and SV Elversberg 22%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.61 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 67%. The headline call is both teams to score at 67%. RB Leipzig are 7th on 9 points from 6; SV Elversberg are 6th on 10 points from 6. RB Leipzig have won two of their last five; SV Elversberg have won two of their last five.

SC Paderborn 07 v Hamburger SVSat 24 Oct, 14:30

Our model makes SC Paderborn 07 48%, the draw 25% and Hamburger SV 27%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.96 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is both teams to score at 59%. SC Paderborn 07 are 15th on 5 points from 6; Hamburger SV are 9th on 9 points from 6. SC Paderborn 07 have won one of their last five; Hamburger SV have won three of their last five.

Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht FrankfurtSat 24 Oct, 17:30

Our model makes Borussia Dortmund 65%, the draw 18% and Eintracht Frankfurt 17%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.98 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 69%. The headline call is Borussia Dortmund to win at 65%. Borussia Dortmund are 2nd on 14 points from 6; Eintracht Frankfurt are 11th on 8 points from 6. Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); Eintracht Frankfurt have won two of their last five. Two of the sides' last three meetings were drawn.

1899 Hoffenheim v Bayer LeverkusenSun 25 Oct, 14:30

Our model makes 1899 Hoffenheim 26%, the draw 21% and Bayer Leverkusen 53%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (9%), 3.75 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 70%. The headline call is Bayer Leverkusen to win at 53%. 1899 Hoffenheim are 17th on 3 points from 5; Bayer Leverkusen are 4th on 10 points from 5. 1899 Hoffenheim have won one of their last five; Bayer Leverkusen have won three of their last five. 1899 Hoffenheim have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

SC Freiburg v Bayern MünchenSun 25 Oct, 16:30

Our model makes SC Freiburg 23%, the draw 19% and Bayern München 58%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (8%), 4.31 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 76%. The headline call is Bayern München to win at 58%. SC Freiburg are 3rd on 13 points from 5; Bayern München are 1st on 14 points from 6. SC Freiburg are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw); Bayern München are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws). Bayern München have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

The model has published six picks on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.