Bundesliga · Review

Bundesliga matchweek 8 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Bundesliga result from matchweek 8 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 1 Nov 2026, updated 2 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Bundesliga, matchweek 8 (30 October – 1 November 2026), is complete: nine matches, 28 goals (3.11 a game), three home wins, three draws and three away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in five of the nine and both teams scored in six.

The result the model rated least likely was the draw in Bayern München v Borussia Dortmund (2–2), which it had at 18%; the one it rated most likely was Eintracht Frankfurt's win in Eintracht Frankfurt v Hamburger SV (3–1), at 52%.

After the round, Bayern München lead on goal difference from Borussia Dortmund, both on 18 points, with SC Freiburg third on 16. The bottom three are Union Berlin (7), FC Schalke 04 (6), Borussia Mönchengladbach (4).

Match by match

SV Elversberg 4–1 FSV Mainz 05Fri 30 Oct, 19:30

Before kick-off the model had SV Elversberg 42%, the draw 23% and FSV Mainz 05 35%, so SV Elversberg winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.02–1.23: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 69%, came in. Pick published: SV Elversberg 0 at 2.44 (free pick) — won.

Bayer Leverkusen 2–4 VfB StuttgartSat 31 Oct, 14:30

Before kick-off the model had Bayer Leverkusen 49%, the draw 23% and VfB Stuttgart 27%, with Bayer Leverkusen favoured; it put VfB Stuttgart winning at 27%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.07–2.88: VfB Stuttgart created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 63%, came in.

Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–0 SC Paderborn 07Sat 31 Oct, 14:30

Before kick-off the model had Borussia Mönchengladbach 39%, the draw 24% and SC Paderborn 07 37%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach favoured; it put the draw at 24%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.07–1.04: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 65%, did not come in.

FC Augsburg 1–2 SC FreiburgSat 31 Oct, 14:30

Before kick-off the model had FC Augsburg 35%, the draw 23% and SC Freiburg 42%, so SC Freiburg winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.53–1.45: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 69%, came in.

FC Schalke 04 0–2 RB LeipzigSat 31 Oct, 14:30

Before kick-off the model had FC Schalke 04 31%, the draw 25% and RB Leipzig 44%, so RB Leipzig winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.58–3.30: RB Leipzig created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 60%, did not come in.

Werder Bremen 2–0 1899 HoffenheimSat 31 Oct, 14:30

Before kick-off the model had Werder Bremen 38%, the draw 23% and 1899 Hoffenheim 39%, with 1899 Hoffenheim favoured; it put Werder Bremen winning at 38%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.20–1.15: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 69%, did not come in. Pick published: 1899 Hoffenheim +0.25 at 1.95 (free pick) — lost.

Bayern München 2–2 Borussia DortmundSat 31 Oct, 17:30

Before kick-off the model had Bayern München 64%, the draw 18% and Borussia Dortmund 17%, with Bayern München favoured; it put the draw at 18%. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 4.53–0.77: Bayern München created the better chances. The headline call, Bayern München to win at 64%, did not come in.

Union Berlin 1–1 1. FC KölnSun 1 Nov, 14:30

Before kick-off the model had Union Berlin 44%, the draw 25% and 1. FC Köln 31%, with Union Berlin favoured; it put the draw at 25%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 0.91–1.22: 1. FC Köln created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 62%, came in. Pick published: 1. FC Köln +0.25 at 2.25 — half won.

Eintracht Frankfurt 3–1 Hamburger SVSun 1 Nov, 16:30

Before kick-off the model had Eintracht Frankfurt 52%, the draw 22% and Hamburger SV 26%, so Eintracht Frankfurt winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.03–1.12: Eintracht Frankfurt created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 68%, came in.

The numbers this season

Bundesliga has averaged 3.50 goals a game over 72 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 69% of them and both sides scoring in 58%. Home sides have won 49% of matches, 22% have been drawn and away sides have won 29%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.