Werder Bremen v 1899 Hoffenheim

6th2–09th

14:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Werder Bremen		1899 Hoffenheim
18	Shots	16
4	Shots on target	2
8	Corners	4
11	Fouls	11
3	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	1
370	Passes	528
41%	Possession %	59%
1.20	xG	1.15

Over 1.5: 87%
Over 2.5: 68%
Over 3.5: 46%
Both score: 69%

Model pick: 1899 Hoffenheim 39%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.73 – 1.77

Advised bets

Lost

Free pick

1899 Hoffenheim +0.25

1.95Bet365 · fair 1.75 · qualifies at 1.81+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back 1899 Hoffenheim +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.95 with Bet365 — 1899 Hoffenheim starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 57% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 57%; we judge it at 57%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.75. The offered 1.95 implies only 51%, so the price is 11.2% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Werder Bremen 1.73, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.77.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	31.3%	3.20	3.30 Betfair	30.3%	+1.0
Match result	Werder Bremen	37.7%	2.65	2.82 Betano	35.5%	+2.3
Match result	Draw	23.2%	4.31	4.00 BetVictor	25.0%	-1.8
Match result	1899 Hoffenheim	39.1%	2.56	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	+1.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	86.9%	1.15	1.13 Betano	88.5%	-1.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	13.1%	7.62	7.00 BetVictor	14.3%	-1.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	67.9%	1.47	1.42 Betano	70.4%	-2.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	32.1%	3.12	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	-0.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	46.3%	2.16	2.02 Betano	49.5%	-3.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	53.7%	1.86	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	+0.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	68.7%	1.46	1.40 William Hill	71.4%	-2.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Werder Bremen v 1899 Hoffenheim: too close to call

Our model makes Werder Bremen 38% to win this Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 23% and 1899 Hoffenheim at 39%. The goal projection is 1.73 for Werder Bremen against 1.77 for 1899 Hoffenheim — almost nothing to 1899 Hoffenheim on expected output. A combined 3.50 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 68% and both teams to score at 69%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 1-2 8%; 2-1 8%; 2-2 7%; 0-1 5%

This season

Season records for Werder Bremen and 1899 Hoffenheim
Werder Bremen		1899 Hoffenheim
9	Played	9
4-3-2	W-D-L	4-0-5
1.67	Pts / game	1.33
1.89	Goals for / game	1.78
1.67	Goals against / game	1.89
67%	Over 2.5	89%
78%	BTTS	78%
11%	Clean sheets	11%
11%	Failed to score	11%
3-1-0	Home record	3-0-2
1-2-2	Away record	1-0-3
L1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Werder Bremen · 1899 Hoffenheim

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.8	Shots	17.5
7.2	Shots on target	4.8
4.8	Corners	5.5
1.83	Cards	1.33
9.2	Fouls	12.2
49	Possession %	55
1.92	xG	1.88
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.3	Shots	14.5
5.3	Shots on target	3.8
4.7	Corners	4.5
1.17	Cards	2.00
9.8	Fouls	10.2
51	Possession %	45
1.46	xG	1.26
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Werder Bremen	Metric	1899 Hoffenheim
1.60	Goals scored	2.00 (better)
2.80	Goals conceded	2.00 (better)
2.06 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.52
	Big chances
7.75 (better)	Shots on target	5.00
15.75	Total shots	17.60 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.75	Corners	7.20 (better)
52.0	Possession %	55.6 (better)
535 (better)	Passes	499
	Tackles
10.75 (better)	Fouls	15.20
2.00 (better)	Offsides	2.50
	Throw-ins
1.25 (better)	Yellow cards	2.80
	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Werder Bremen wins: 1
Draws: 0
1899 Hoffenheim wins: 2
Goals / game: 1.67
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Werder Bremen v 1899 Hoffenheim2–02026-10-31
1899 Hoffenheim v Werder Bremen1–02026-05-09
Werder Bremen v 1899 Hoffenheim0–22026-01-27

Bundesliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Bayern München	9	6	3	0	+20	21	Bayern München won 3 of the last 5
2	Borussia Dortmund	9	6	3	0	+9	21	Borussia Dortmund won 2 of the last 5
3	SC Freiburg	9	6	1	2	+10	19	SC Freiburg won 3 of the last 5
4	RB Leipzig	9	6	0	3	+14	18	RB Leipzig won 4 of the last 5
5	Bayer Leverkusen	9	5	1	3	+3	16	Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the last 5
6	Werder Bremen	9	4	3	2	+2	15	Werder Bremen won 2 of the last 5
7	SV Elversberg	9	4	1	4	-1	13	SV Elversberg won 2 of the last 5
8	VfB Stuttgart	9	4	0	5	0	12	VfB Stuttgart won 3 of the last 5
9	1899 Hoffenheim	9	4	0	5	-1	12	1899 Hoffenheim won 3 of the last 5
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	9	3	3	3	-5	12	Eintracht Frankfurt won 2 of the last 5
11	Hamburger SV	9	4	0	5	-10	12	Hamburger SV won 3 of the last 5
12	FSV Mainz 05	9	3	1	5	-1	10	FSV Mainz 05 won 1 of the last 5
13	SC Paderborn 07	9	2	4	3	-3	10	SC Paderborn 07 won 1 of the last 5
14	FC Augsburg	9	2	3	4	0	9	FC Augsburg won 0 of the last 5
15	1. FC Köln	9	2	3	4	-4	9	1. FC Köln won 1 of the last 5
16	Union Berlin	9	1	4	4	-14	7	Union Berlin won 1 of the last 5
17	FC Schalke 04	9	1	3	5	-6	6	FC Schalke 04 won 0 of the last 5
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	9	1	1	7	-13	4	Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1 of the last 5