Bundesliga · Review

Bundesliga matchweek 9 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Bundesliga result from matchweek 9 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 8 Nov 2026, updated 9 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Bundesliga, matchweek 9 (6–8 November 2026), is complete: nine matches, 30 goals (3.33 a game), six home wins, one draw and two away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in seven of the nine and both teams scored in seven.

The result the model rated least likely was the draw in SC Paderborn 07 v Eintracht Frankfurt (2–2), which it had at 23%; the one it rated most likely was Bayern München's win in FSV Mainz 05 v Bayern München (1–2), at 70%.

After the round, Bayern München lead on goal difference from Borussia Dortmund, both on 21 points, with SC Freiburg third on 19. The bottom three are Union Berlin (7), FC Schalke 04 (6), Borussia Mönchengladbach (4).

Match by match

Hamburger SV 3–1 Borussia MönchengladbachFri 6 Nov, 19:30

Before kick-off the model had Hamburger SV 38%, the draw 25% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 36%, so Hamburger SV winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.37–2.47: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 61%, came in. Pick published: Hamburger SV -0.5 at 2.35 (free pick) — won.

Borussia Dortmund 2–1 SV ElversbergSat 7 Nov, 14:30

Before kick-off the model had Borussia Dortmund 63%, the draw 20% and SV Elversberg 17%, so Borussia Dortmund winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score, 2-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 1.61–1.31: Borussia Dortmund created the better chances. The headline call, Borussia Dortmund to win at 63%, came in.

FSV Mainz 05 1–2 Bayern MünchenSat 7 Nov, 14:30

Before kick-off the model had FSV Mainz 05 15%, the draw 15% and Bayern München 70%, so Bayern München winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-3. Expected goals were 0.64–2.70: Bayern München created the better chances. The headline call, Bayern München to win at 70%, came in.

RB Leipzig 5–2 FC AugsburgSat 7 Nov, 14:30

Before kick-off the model had RB Leipzig 58%, the draw 20% and FC Augsburg 22%, so RB Leipzig winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 1.68–1.90: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 70%, came in.

SC Paderborn 07 2–2 Eintracht FrankfurtSat 7 Nov, 14:30

Before kick-off the model had SC Paderborn 07 43%, the draw 23% and Eintracht Frankfurt 34%, with SC Paderborn 07 favoured; it put the draw at 23%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.33–1.77: SC Paderborn 07 created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 70%, came in.

VfB Stuttgart 1–0 Werder BremenSat 7 Nov, 17:30

Before kick-off the model had VfB Stuttgart 62%, the draw 20% and Werder Bremen 18%, so VfB Stuttgart winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 0.75–1.42: Werder Bremen created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, VfB Stuttgart to win at 62%, came in.

1. FC Köln 1–2 Bayer LeverkusenSun 8 Nov, 14:30

Before kick-off the model had 1. FC Köln 23%, the draw 22% and Bayer Leverkusen 55%, so Bayer Leverkusen winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.59–1.75: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Bayer Leverkusen to win at 55%, came in.

SC Freiburg 2–0 Union BerlinSun 8 Nov, 16:30

Before kick-off the model had SC Freiburg 68%, the draw 18% and Union Berlin 14%, so SC Freiburg winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 2.62–0.36: SC Freiburg created the better chances. The headline call, SC Freiburg to win at 68%, came in.

1899 Hoffenheim 2–1 FC Schalke 04Sun 8 Nov, 18:30

Before kick-off the model had 1899 Hoffenheim 52%, the draw 25% and FC Schalke 04 23%, so 1899 Hoffenheim winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.94–2.61: FC Schalke 04 created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, 1899 Hoffenheim to win at 52%, came in.

The numbers this season

Bundesliga has averaged 3.48 goals a game over 81 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 70% of them and both sides scoring in 60%. Home sides have won 51% of matches, 21% have been drawn and away sides have won 28%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.