Hamburger SV v 
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Match statistics
| Hamburger SV | Borussia Mönchengladbach | |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Shots | 19 |
| 9 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 553 | Passes | 334 |
| 62% | Possession % | 38% |
| 2.37 | xG | 2.47 |
- Over 1.5
- 81%
- Over 2.5
- 58%
- Over 3.5
- 36%
- Both score
- 61%
- Model pick
- Hamburger SV 38%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.53 – 1.49
Advised bets
Won
Free pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Hamburger SV -0.5
Why this price?
Back Hamburger SV -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.35 with Bet365 — Hamburger SV must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 38% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 53%; we judge it at 47%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.12. The offered 2.35 implies only 43%, so the price is 10.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Hamburger SV 1.53, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.49.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 61.2% | 1.63 | 1.62 William Hill | 61.7% | -0.5 |
| Match result | Hamburger SV | 38.2% | 2.62 | 2.49 Dafabet | 40.2% | -2.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 25.3% | 3.95 | 3.75 Betano | 26.7% | -1.3 |
| Match result | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 36.5% | 2.74 | 3.00 Bet365 | 33.3% | +3.1 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 80.9% | 1.24 | 1.25 Betano | 80.0% | +0.9 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 19.1% | 5.23 | 5.00 Betfair | 20.0% | -0.9 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 58.1% | 1.72 | 1.78 Betano | 56.2% | +1.9 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 41.9% | 2.38 | 2.38 Betfair | 42.0% | -0.1 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 35.7% | 2.81 | 2.85 Betano | 35.1% | +0.6 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 64.3% | 1.55 | 1.62 Bet365 | 61.7% | +2.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 38.8% | 2.58 | 2.62 William Hill | 38.2% | +0.6 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Hamburger SV v Borussia Mönchengladbach: too close to call
Our model makes Hamburger SV 38% to win this Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 25% and Borussia Mönchengladbach at 36%. The goal projection is 1.53 for Hamburger SV against 1.49 for Borussia Mönchengladbach — almost nothing to Hamburger SV on expected output. A combined 3.02 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-2 8%
- 1-0 7%
- 0-1 7%
This season
| Hamburger SV | Borussia Mönchengladbach | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Played | 9 |
| 4-0-5 | W-D-L | 1-1-7 |
| 1.33 | Pts / game | 0.44 |
| 1.11 | Goals for / game | 1.33 |
| 2.22 | Goals against / game | 2.78 |
| 67% | Over 2.5 | 89% |
| 44% | BTTS | 67% |
| 11% | Clean sheets | 11% |
| 44% | Failed to score | 33% |
| 3-0-1 | Home record | 0-1-3 |
| 1-0-4 | Away record | 1-0-4 |
| W1 | Streak | L1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Hamburger SV · Borussia Mönchengladbach
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 13.2 | Shots | 15.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.5 | Shots on target | 5.5 |
| 4.2 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 3.37 |
| 11.8 | Fouls | 13.7 |
| 44 | Possession % | 43 |
| 1.35 | xG | 1.86 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 18.2 | Shots | 16.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.0 | Shots on target | 6.8 |
| 6.0 | Corners | 5.7 |
| 1.73 | Cards | 2.33 |
| 12.0 | Fouls | 9.8 |
| 56 | Possession % | 57 |
| 1.82 | xG | 1.84 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| Hamburger SV | Metric | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| 1.40 | Goals scored | 1.60 (better) |
| 1.20 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.40 |
| 1.58 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.27 |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.50 | Shots on target | 4.75 (better) |
| 13.00 (better) | Total shots | 11.25 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.00 (better) | Corners | 3.75 |
| 39.0 | Possession % | 41.5 (better) |
| 343 | Passes | 361 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 13.00 | Fouls | 12.75 (better) |
| 0.67 (better) | Offsides | 1.50 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.25 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.50 |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.50 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Hamburger SV wins
- 1
- Draws
- 2
- Borussia Mönchengladbach wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 1.33
- Over 2.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 33%
- Hamburger SV v Borussia Mönchengladbach3–12026-11-06
- Hamburger SV v Borussia Mönchengladbach0–02026-01-17
- Borussia Mönchengladbach v Hamburger SV0–02025-08-24
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +20 | 21 | Bayern München won 3 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +9 | 21 | Borussia Dortmund won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +10 | 19 | SC Freiburg won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | +14 | 18 | RB Leipzig won 4 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 16 | Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 15 | Werder Bremen won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | SV Elversberg | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 13 | SV Elversberg won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | VfB Stuttgart | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 12 | VfB Stuttgart won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 12 | 1899 Hoffenheim won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 12 | Eintracht Frankfurt won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 12 | Hamburger SV won 3 of the last 5 |
| 12 | FSV Mainz 05 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 10 | FSV Mainz 05 won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 | SC Paderborn 07 won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | FC Augsburg | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9 | FC Augsburg won 0 of the last 5 |
| 15 | 1. FC Köln | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 | 1. FC Köln won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -14 | 7 | Union Berlin won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | FC Schalke 04 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 6 | FC Schalke 04 won 0 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 4 | Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1 of the last 5 |