1899 Hoffenheim v FC Schalke 04

9th2–117th

18:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
1899 Hoffenheim		FC Schalke 04
15	Shots	23
7	Shots on target	6
6	Corners	4
10	Fouls	9
0	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
6	Offsides	2
459	Passes	465
49%	Possession %	51%
1.94	xG	2.61

Over 1.5: 77%
Over 2.5: 53%
Over 3.5: 31%
Both score: 55%

Model pick: 1899 Hoffenheim 52%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.71 – 1.08

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	1899 Hoffenheim	51.7%	1.93	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-8.2
Match result	Draw	25.0%	3.99	4.50 Betano	22.2%	+2.8
Match result	FC Schalke 04	23.3%	4.30	5.70 Betano	17.5%	+5.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	77.3%	1.29	1.17 Bet365	85.5%	-8.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	22.7%	4.40	5.75 BetVictor	17.4%	+5.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	52.8%	1.89	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	-10.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	47.2%	2.12	2.57 Betano	38.9%	+8.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	30.6%	3.27	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	-11.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	69.4%	1.44	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	+9.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	54.6%	1.83	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	-7.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	45.4%	2.20	2.50 Betfair	40.0%	+5.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

1899 Hoffenheim favoured against FC Schalke 04

Our model makes 1899 Hoffenheim 52% to win this Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 25% and FC Schalke 04 at 23%. The goal projection is 1.71 for 1899 Hoffenheim against 1.08 for FC Schalke 04 — a substantial edge to 1899 Hoffenheim on expected output. A combined 2.79 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-0 10%; 2-1 10%; 2-0 9%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Schalke 04
1899 Hoffenheim		FC Schalke 04
9	Played	9
4-0-5	W-D-L	1-3-5
1.33	Pts / game	0.67
1.78	Goals for / game	0.56
1.89	Goals against / game	1.22
89%	Over 2.5	44%
78%	BTTS	33%
11%	Clean sheets	33%
11%	Failed to score	67%
3-0-2	Home record	0-2-2
1-0-3	Away record	1-1-3
W1	Streak	L2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. 1899 Hoffenheim · FC Schalke 04

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.5	Shots	10.8
4.8	Shots on target	2.2
5.5	Corners	3.7
1.33	Cards	1.50
12.2	Fouls	12.0
55	Possession %	44
1.88	xG	0.93
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.5	Shots	13.0
3.8	Shots on target	5.5
4.5	Corners	5.2
2.00	Cards	1.37
10.2	Fouls	12.5
45	Possession %	56
1.26	xG	1.94
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
1899 Hoffenheim	Metric	FC Schalke 04
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	0.20
0.80 (better)	Goals conceded	1.40
1.88 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.54
	Big chances
5.60 (better)	Shots on target	2.00
16.80 (better)	Total shots	7.40
	Touches in opp. box
7.20 (better)	Corners	3.60
50.4 (better)	Possession %	44.2
466 (better)	Passes	404
	Tackles
15.00	Fouls	12.60 (better)
2.20 (better)	Offsides	2.50
	Throw-ins
2.80	Yellow cards	2.20 (better)
0.25	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

1899 Hoffenheim wins: 1
Draws: 0
FC Schalke 04 wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

1899 Hoffenheim v FC Schalke 042–12026-11-08

Bundesliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Bayern München	9	6	3	0	+20	21	Bayern München won 3 of the last 5
2	Borussia Dortmund	9	6	3	0	+9	21	Borussia Dortmund won 2 of the last 5
3	SC Freiburg	9	6	1	2	+10	19	SC Freiburg won 3 of the last 5
4	RB Leipzig	9	6	0	3	+14	18	RB Leipzig won 4 of the last 5
5	Bayer Leverkusen	9	5	1	3	+3	16	Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the last 5
6	Werder Bremen	9	4	3	2	+2	15	Werder Bremen won 2 of the last 5
7	SV Elversberg	9	4	1	4	-1	13	SV Elversberg won 2 of the last 5
8	VfB Stuttgart	9	4	0	5	0	12	VfB Stuttgart won 3 of the last 5
9	1899 Hoffenheim	9	4	0	5	-1	12	1899 Hoffenheim won 3 of the last 5
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	9	3	3	3	-5	12	Eintracht Frankfurt won 2 of the last 5
11	Hamburger SV	9	4	0	5	-10	12	Hamburger SV won 3 of the last 5
12	FSV Mainz 05	9	3	1	5	-1	10	FSV Mainz 05 won 1 of the last 5
13	SC Paderborn 07	9	2	4	3	-3	10	SC Paderborn 07 won 1 of the last 5
14	FC Augsburg	9	2	3	4	0	9	FC Augsburg won 0 of the last 5
15	1. FC Köln	9	2	3	4	-4	9	1. FC Köln won 1 of the last 5
16	Union Berlin	9	1	4	4	-14	7	Union Berlin won 1 of the last 5
17	FC Schalke 04	9	1	3	5	-6	6	FC Schalke 04 won 0 of the last 5
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	9	1	1	7	-13	4	Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1 of the last 5