Bundesliga · Preview
Bundesliga predictions: matchweek 6 (16–18 October 2026)
Every Bundesliga match in matchweek 6 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.
Published · Written from the site’s own data
Bundesliga, matchweek 6: nine matches, played across 16–18 October 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.
The strongest favourite is Bayern München, 75% to beat RB Leipzig at home; the most evenly balanced game is Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn 07 (Werder Bremen 38%, draw 25%, SC Paderborn 07 37%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Bayern München v RB Leipzig, at 4.64; the tightest looks FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05, at 2.61.
Going into the round, SC Freiburg lead on goal difference from Borussia Dortmund, both on 13 points, with Bayern München third on 11. The bottom three are Union Berlin (4), 1899 Hoffenheim (3), Borussia Mönchengladbach (0).
The numbers this season
Bundesliga has averaged 3.82 goals a game over 45 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 78% of them and both sides scoring in 60%. Home sides have won 51% of matches, 20% have been drawn and away sides have won 29%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
Match by match
Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC KölnFri 16 Oct, 19:30
Our model makes Eintracht Frankfurt 57%, the draw 19% and 1. FC Köln 24%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (8%), 4.29 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 76%. The headline call is both teams to score at 76%. Eintracht Frankfurt are 14th on 5 points from 5; 1. FC Köln are 10th on 7 points from 5. Eintracht Frankfurt have won one of their last five; 1. FC Köln have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05Sat 17 Oct, 14:30
Our model makes FC Schalke 04 34%, the draw 28% and FSV Mainz 05 38%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.61 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is FSV Mainz 05 to win at 38%. FC Schalke 04 are 13th on 5 points from 5; FSV Mainz 05 are 8th on 7 points from 5. FC Schalke 04 have won one of their last five; FSV Mainz 05 have won two of their last five.
Hamburger SV v VfB StuttgartSat 17 Oct, 14:30
Our model makes Hamburger SV 21%, the draw 22% and VfB Stuttgart 57%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.26 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is VfB Stuttgart to win at 57%. Hamburger SV are 12th on 6 points from 5; VfB Stuttgart are 11th on 6 points from 5. Hamburger SV have won two of their last five; VfB Stuttgart have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Hamburger SV wins, draws and VfB Stuttgart wins.
SV Elversberg v FC AugsburgSat 17 Oct, 14:30
Our model makes SV Elversberg 48%, the draw 23% and FC Augsburg 29%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.45 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%. The headline call is both teams to score at 67%. SV Elversberg are 9th on 7 points from 5; FC Augsburg are 6th on 8 points from 5. SV Elversberg have won two of their last five; FC Augsburg have won two of their last five.
Union Berlin v Borussia DortmundSat 17 Oct, 14:30
Our model makes Union Berlin 19%, the draw 20% and Borussia Dortmund 61%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (10%), 3.47 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is Borussia Dortmund to win at 61%. Union Berlin are 16th on 4 points from 5; Borussia Dortmund are 2nd on 13 points from 5. Union Berlin have won one of their last five; Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw). Borussia Dortmund have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn 07Sat 17 Oct, 14:30
Our model makes Werder Bremen 38%, the draw 25% and SC Paderborn 07 37%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 3.01 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is both teams to score at 61%. Werder Bremen are 7th on 8 points from 5; SC Paderborn 07 are 15th on 4 points from 5. Werder Bremen have won two of their last five; SC Paderborn 07 have won one of their last five.
Bayern München v RB LeipzigSat 17 Oct, 17:30
Our model makes Bayern München 75%, the draw 14% and RB Leipzig 12%. The likeliest score is 3-1 (8%), 4.64 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 84%, both teams to score 72%. The headline call is Bayern München to win at 75%. Bayern München are 3rd on 11 points from 5; RB Leipzig are 5th on 9 points from 5. Bayern München are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); RB Leipzig have won three of their last five. Bayern München have won three of the sides' last three meetings.
Bayer Leverkusen v SC FreiburgSun 18 Oct, 14:30
Our model makes Bayer Leverkusen 47%, the draw 24% and SC Freiburg 30%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.32 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 65%. The headline call is both teams to score at 65%. Bayer Leverkusen are 4th on 10 points from 5; SC Freiburg are 1st on 13 points from 5. Bayer Leverkusen have won three of their last five; SC Freiburg are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw). One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Borussia Mönchengladbach v 1899 HoffenheimSun 18 Oct, 16:30
Our model makes Borussia Mönchengladbach 38%, the draw 23% and 1899 Hoffenheim 40%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.70 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 72%. The headline call is both teams to score at 72%. Borussia Mönchengladbach are 18th on 0 points from 5; 1899 Hoffenheim are 17th on 3 points from 5. Borussia Mönchengladbach have lost all of their last five; 1899 Hoffenheim have won one of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Borussia Mönchengladbach wins, draws and 1899 Hoffenheim wins.
How to read these
Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.
The model has published five picks on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.
The fixtures now
The current probability and headline call for each match, updated as forecasts are published; the text above is as written.
Bundesliga9Prediction
3 more member picks on these matches, with the price, stake and reasoning.Unlock every pick →
Probabilities are statistical opinion, not advice, and no outcome is certain. Past predictions don’t indicate future results. Over 18s only; never stake money you cannot afford to lose.