Serie A · Review

Serie A matchweek 9 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Serie A result from matchweek 9 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 30 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Serie A, matchweek 9 (27–29 October 2026), is complete: ten matches, 43 goals (4.30 a game), three home wins, two draws and five away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in seven of the ten and both teams scored in seven.

The result the model rated least likely was Genoa's win in Genoa v Juventus (2–0), which it had at 21%; the one it rated most likely was AS Roma's win in AS Roma v Cagliari (4–2), at 63%.

After the round, Inter lead on goal difference from Lazio, both on 25 points, with AS Roma third on 21. The bottom three are Fiorentina (5), Parma (5), Venezia (3).

Match by match

Sassuolo 2–6 LazioTue 27 Oct, 17:30

Before kick-off the model had Sassuolo 32%, the draw 28% and Lazio 40%, so Lazio winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.80–3.59: Lazio created the better chances. The headline call, Lazio to win at 40%, came in. Pick published: Sassuolo -0.5 at 2.75 (free pick) — lost.

AS Roma 4–2 CagliariTue 27 Oct, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had AS Roma 63%, the draw 23% and Cagliari 14%, so AS Roma winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-0. Expected goals were 2.96–2.68: an even contest on chances. The headline call, AS Roma to win at 63%, came in. Pick published: AS Roma -0.75 at 1.42 (free pick) — won.

Torino 1–3 ComoTue 27 Oct, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Torino 20%, the draw 24% and Como 56%, so Como winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.17–2.28: Como created the better chances. The headline call, Como to win at 56%, came in. Pick published: Como +0.25 at 1.50 — won.

AC Milan 2–4 BolognaWed 28 Oct, 17:30

Before kick-off the model had AC Milan 52%, the draw 26% and Bologna 22%, with AC Milan favoured; it put Bologna winning at 22%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.75–1.89: an even contest on chances. The headline call, AC Milan to win at 52%, did not come in. Pick published: AC Milan -0.5 at 1.65 — lost.

Parma 0–0 UdineseWed 28 Oct, 17:30

Before kick-off the model had Parma 28%, the draw 29% and Udinese 42%, with Udinese favoured; it put the draw at 29%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.20–1.43: an even contest on chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 60%, came in. Pick published: Parma -0.5 at 2.90 (free pick) — lost.

Venezia 0–2 InterWed 28 Oct, 17:30

Before kick-off the model had Venezia 21%, the draw 20% and Inter 58%, so Inter winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-2. Expected goals were 1.67–2.39: Inter created the better chances. The headline call, Inter to win at 58%, came in.

Genoa 2–0 JuventusWed 28 Oct, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Genoa 21%, the draw 25% and Juventus 54%, with Juventus favoured; it put Genoa winning at 21%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.01–1.30: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Juventus to win at 54%, did not come in. Pick published: Juventus +0.25 at 1.42 — lost.

Monza 1–4 NapoliWed 28 Oct, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Monza 34%, the draw 27% and Napoli 39%, so Napoli winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.81–1.43: Napoli created the better chances. The headline call, Napoli to win at 39%, came in.

Frosinone 5–1 LecceThu 29 Oct, 17:30

Before kick-off the model had Frosinone 59%, the draw 24% and Lecce 17%, so Frosinone winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-0. Expected goals were 3.11–1.47: Frosinone created the better chances. The headline call, Frosinone to win at 59%, came in. Picks published: Frosinone -0.25 at 1.68 (free pick) — won; Both teams to score — No at 2.45 — lost.

Fiorentina 2–2 AtalantaThu 29 Oct, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Fiorentina 29%, the draw 27% and Atalanta 44%, with Atalanta favoured; it put the draw at 27%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.67–1.16: Fiorentina created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 55%, came in. Pick published: Atalanta 0 at 2.20 — void.

The numbers this season

Serie A has averaged 3.16 goals a game over 90 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 60% of them and both sides scoring in 58%. Home sides have won 46% of matches, 18% have been drawn and away sides have won 37%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.