Frosinone v 
Lecce
Match statistics
| Frosinone | Lecce | |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | Shots | 15 |
| 9 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 4 | Offsides | 0 |
| 365 | Passes | 247 |
| 60% | Possession % | 40% |
| 3.11 | xG | 1.47 |
- Over 1.5
- 76%
- Over 2.5
- 51%
- Over 3.5
- 29%
- Both score
- 50%
- Model pick
- Frosinone 59%
- Likely score
- 1-0 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.84 – 0.88
Advised bets
Won
Free pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Frosinone -0.25
Why this price?
Back Frosinone -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.68 with Bet365 — Frosinone must win by more than 0.25 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 67% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 65%; we judge it at 66%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.52. The offered 1.68 implies only 60%, so the price is 10.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Frosinone 1.84, Lecce 0.88.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 2 of 5Both teams to score — No
Why this price?
Back both teams to score — no at 2.45 with Betano — at least one side fails to score.
Our model puts the chance at 50% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 39%; we judge it at 44%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.30. The offered 2.45 implies only 41%, so the price is 6.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.14 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Frosinone 1.84, Lecce 0.88.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 29.0% | 3.45 | 2.38 Bet365 | 42.0% | -13.0 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 71.0% | 1.41 | 1.83 Betano | 54.6% | +16.4 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 49.8% | 2.01 | 1.57 Betfair | 63.7% | -13.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 50.2% | 1.99 | 3.00 Betfair | 33.3% | +16.9 |
| Match result | Frosinone | 59.4% | 1.68 | 2.00 Betfair | 50.0% | +9.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 23.5% | 4.25 | 4.35 Betano | 23.0% | +0.6 |
| Match result | Lecce | 17.1% | 5.85 | 5.00 Bet365 | 20.0% | -2.9 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 76.0% | 1.32 | 1.17 Bet365 | 85.5% | -9.5 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 24.0% | 4.16 | 7.00 BetVictor | 14.3% | +9.7 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 51.1% | 1.96 | 1.60 Betfair | 62.5% | -11.4 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 48.9% | 2.04 | 3.10 Betfair | 32.3% | +16.7 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Frosinone favoured against Lecce
Our model makes Frosinone 59% to win this Serie A fixture, with the draw at 24% and Lecce at 17%. The goal projection is 1.84 for Frosinone against 0.88 for Lecce — a commanding edge to Frosinone on expected output. A combined 2.72 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-0 12%
- 1-1 11%
- 2-0 11%
- 2-1 10%
- 0-0 7%
This season
| Frosinone | Lecce | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Played | 11 |
| 6-2-3 | W-D-L | 3-1-7 |
| 1.82 | Pts / game | 0.91 |
| 2.18 | Goals for / game | 1.09 |
| 1.36 | Goals against / game | 2.00 |
| 55% | Over 2.5 | 64% |
| 45% | BTTS | 45% |
| 27% | Clean sheets | 18% |
| 27% | Failed to score | 36% |
| 5-0-1 | Home record | 1-0-4 |
| 1-2-2 | Away record | 2-1-3 |
| L1 | Streak | D1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Frosinone · Lecce
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 22.7 | Shots | 13.9 |
|---|---|---|
| 7.6 | Shots on target | 5.3 |
| 7.9 | Corners | 5.1 |
| 1.57 | Cards | 1.91 |
| 13.6 | Fouls | 15.0 |
| 50 | Possession % | 42 |
| 2.14 | xG | 1.27 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 17.6 | Shots | 12.9 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.3 | Shots on target | 3.9 |
| 5.6 | Corners | 3.7 |
| 2.14 | Cards | 0.57 |
| 11.1 | Fouls | 9.9 |
| 50 | Possession % | 58 |
| 2.05 | xG | 1.55 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Frosinone | Metric | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| 1.80 (better) | Goals scored | 1.40 |
| 1.40 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.60 |
| 1.80 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.35 |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.75 (better) | Shots on target | 5.00 |
| 21.50 (better) | Total shots | 11.80 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.25 (better) | Corners | 5.20 |
| 45.5 (better) | Possession % | 43.6 |
| 343 | Passes | 362 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 14.50 | Fouls | 14.00 (better) |
| 2.50 | Offsides | 2.20 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.25 (better) | Yellow cards | 1.80 |
| 0.00 | Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Frosinone wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Lecce wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 6.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- Frosinone v Lecce5–12026-10-29
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | +16 | 29 | Lazio won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Inter | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | +15 | 28 | Inter won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | +21 | 27 | AS Roma won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | +10 | 24 | AC Milan won 4 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Como | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | +8 | 23 | Como won 4 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +9 | 20 | Frosinone won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Juventus | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +3 | 18 | Juventus won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Bologna | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 17 | Bologna won 4 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Cagliari | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 16 | Cagliari won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Napoli | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +4 | 15 | Napoli won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Torino | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 | Torino won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Atalanta | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 14 | Atalanta won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Genoa | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 13 | Genoa won 3 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Lecce | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 10 | Lecce won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Fiorentina | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 9 | Fiorentina won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Parma | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 8 | Parma won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Sassuolo | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 8 | Sassuolo won 0 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Monza | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -8 | 7 | Monza won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Venezia | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -13 | 6 | Venezia won 2 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Udinese | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -13 | 5 | Udinese won 0 of the last 5 |