Monza v Napoli

18th1–410th

19:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Monza		Napoli
12	Shots	16
5	Shots on target	7
2	Corners	2
14	Fouls	6
3	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	4
334	Passes	631
35%	Possession %	65%
0.81	xG	1.43

Over 1.5: 75%
Over 2.5: 50%
Over 3.5: 28%
Both score: 55%

Model pick: Napoli 39%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.29 – 1.38

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Monza	34.2%	2.92	4.75 Bet365	21.1%	+13.2
Match result	Draw	27.2%	3.67	4.00 Bet365	25.0%	+2.2
Match result	Napoli	38.6%	2.59	1.92 Dafabet	52.1%	-13.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	75.1%	1.33	1.23 Betano	81.3%	-6.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	24.9%	4.02	4.60 BetVictor	21.7%	+3.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	49.8%	2.01	1.75 Betfair	57.1%	-7.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	50.2%	1.99	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	+4.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	27.8%	3.59	2.75 Bet365	36.4%	-8.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	72.2%	1.39	1.47 Betfair	68.0%	+4.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	54.8%	1.83	1.73 Betfair	57.8%	-3.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	45.2%	2.21	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	+1.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Monza v Napoli: too close to call

Our model makes Monza 34% to win this Serie A fixture, with the draw at 27% and Napoli at 39%. The goal projection is 1.29 for Monza against 1.38 for Napoli — almost nothing to Napoli on expected output. A combined 2.67 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 9%; 1-2 9%; 1-0 8%; 2-1 8%

This season

Season records for Monza and Napoli
Monza		Napoli
11	Played	11
2-1-8	W-D-L	4-3-4
0.64	Pts / game	1.36
1.55	Goals for / game	1.64
2.27	Goals against / game	1.27
82%	Over 2.5	45%
82%	BTTS	55%
9%	Clean sheets	27%
9%	Failed to score	18%
2-0-3	Home record	2-2-1
0-1-5	Away record	2-1-3
L4	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Monza · Napoli

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.9	Shots	16.1
5.3	Shots on target	6.1
4.3	Corners	5.9
2.45	Cards	1.07
11.4	Fouls	9.3
41	Possession %	55
1.47	xG	1.88
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.6	Shots	14.6
6.6	Shots on target	3.8
4.4	Corners	5.0
1.86	Cards	2.13
9.0	Fouls	10.6
59	Possession %	45
1.63	xG	1.00
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Monza	Metric	Napoli
2.20 (better)	Goals scored	1.80
1.80	Goals conceded	1.60 (better)
1.79	Expected goals (xG)	2.03 (better)
	Big chances
6.00	Shots on target	6.80 (better)
14.33	Total shots	17.80 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.00	Corners	5.80 (better)
38.3	Possession %	54.2 (better)
344	Passes	535 (better)
	Tackles
10.67	Fouls	9.00 (better)
1.33 (better)	Offsides	2.20
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	1.60 (better)
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Monza wins: 0
Draws: 0
Napoli wins: 1
Goals / game: 5.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Monza v Napoli1–42026-10-28

Serie A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lazio	11	9	2	0	+16	29	Lazio won 4 of the last 5
2	Inter	11	9	1	1	+15	28	Inter won 4 of the last 5
3	AS Roma	11	8	3	0	+21	27	AS Roma won 4 of the last 5
4	AC Milan	11	7	3	1	+10	24	AC Milan won 4 of the last 5
5	Como	11	7	2	2	+8	23	Como won 4 of the last 5
6	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	+9	20	Frosinone won 3 of the last 5
7	Juventus	11	5	3	3	+3	18	Juventus won 2 of the last 5
8	Bologna	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Bologna won 4 of the last 5
9	Cagliari	11	5	1	5	-5	16	Cagliari won 1 of the last 5
10	Napoli	11	4	3	4	+4	15	Napoli won 1 of the last 5
11	Torino	11	4	2	5	-2	14	Torino won 2 of the last 5
12	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Atalanta won 1 of the last 5
13	Genoa	11	4	1	6	-5	13	Genoa won 3 of the last 5
14	Lecce	11	3	1	7	-10	10	Lecce won 1 of the last 5
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-8	9	Fiorentina won 1 of the last 5
16	Parma	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Parma won 1 of the last 5
17	Sassuolo	11	2	2	7	-13	8	Sassuolo won 0 of the last 5
18	Monza	11	2	1	8	-8	7	Monza won 1 of the last 5
19	Venezia	11	2	0	9	-13	6	Venezia won 2 of the last 5
20	Udinese	11	1	2	8	-13	5	Udinese won 0 of the last 5