Sassuolo v Lazio

17th2–61st

17:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Sassuolo		Lazio
9	Shots	16
1	Shots on target	8
2	Corners	1
7	Fouls	13
1	Yellow cards	1
1	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	1
449	Passes	622
42%	Possession %	58%
0.80	xG	3.59

Over 1.5: 73%
Over 2.5: 47%
Over 3.5: 25%
Both score: 52%

Model pick: Lazio 40%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.19 – 1.36

Advised bets

Lost

Free pick

Sassuolo -0.5

2.75Betano · fair 2.46 · qualifies at 2.53+ · 1.70u

Why this price?

Back Sassuolo -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.75 with Betano — Sassuolo must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 32% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 46%; we judge it at 41%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.46. The offered 2.75 implies only 36%, so the price is 11.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.70 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Sassuolo 1.19, Lazio 1.36.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Sassuolo	32.1%	3.12	3.65 Betano	27.4%	+4.7
Match result	Draw	27.9%	3.59	3.70 BetVictor	27.0%	+0.9
Match result	Lazio	40.0%	2.50	2.18 Betano	45.9%	-5.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	72.8%	1.37	1.24 Betano	80.6%	-7.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	27.2%	3.67	5.00 BetVictor	20.0%	+7.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	46.7%	2.14	1.75 Betfair	57.1%	-10.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	53.3%	1.88	2.30 Bet365	43.5%	+9.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	25.2%	3.97	2.75 Bet365	36.4%	-11.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	74.8%	1.34	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	+9.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	52.2%	1.92	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	-9.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	47.8%	2.09	2.38 Bet365	42.0%	+5.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Lazio favoured against Sassuolo

Our model makes Sassuolo 32% to win this Serie A fixture, with the draw at 28% and Lazio at 40%. The goal projection is 1.19 for Sassuolo against 1.36 for Lazio — a slight edge to Lazio on expected output. A combined 2.54 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 10%; 1-0 9%; 1-2 9%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Sassuolo and Lazio
Sassuolo		Lazio
11	Played	11
2-2-7	W-D-L	9-2-0
0.73	Pts / game	2.64
1.45	Goals for / game	2.27
2.64	Goals against / game	0.82
82%	Over 2.5	64%
82%	BTTS	64%
0%	Clean sheets	36%
18%	Failed to score	0%
2-1-2	Home record	4-1-0
0-1-5	Away record	5-1-0
L5	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sassuolo · Lazio

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.4	Shots	14.4
3.5	Shots on target	5.0
3.4	Corners	4.7
1.42	Cards	1.29
10.0	Fouls	8.7
48	Possession %	59
1.03	xG	1.59
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.4	Shots	11.9
7.4	Shots on target	4.0
6.1	Corners	4.4
2.00	Cards	2.50
12.5	Fouls	11.3
52	Possession %	41
2.24	xG	1.40
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Sassuolo	Metric	Lazio
1.80	Goals scored	2.60 (better)
2.20	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
1.44 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.34
	Big chances
6.00 (better)	Shots on target	4.00
13.80 (better)	Total shots	12.67
	Touches in opp. box
4.40	Corners	5.33 (better)
48.8	Possession %	52.7 (better)
452	Passes	495 (better)
	Tackles
9.20	Fouls	8.33 (better)
2.00	Offsides	0.33 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.40 (better)	Yellow cards	1.67
	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Sassuolo wins: 1
Draws: 0
Lazio wins: 2
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Sassuolo v Lazio2–62026-10-27
Lazio v Sassuolo2–12026-03-09
Sassuolo v Lazio1–02025-09-14

Serie A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lazio	11	9	2	0	+16	29	Lazio won 4 of the last 5
2	Inter	11	9	1	1	+15	28	Inter won 4 of the last 5
3	AS Roma	11	8	3	0	+21	27	AS Roma won 4 of the last 5
4	AC Milan	11	7	3	1	+10	24	AC Milan won 4 of the last 5
5	Como	11	7	2	2	+8	23	Como won 4 of the last 5
6	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	+9	20	Frosinone won 3 of the last 5
7	Juventus	11	5	3	3	+3	18	Juventus won 2 of the last 5
8	Bologna	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Bologna won 4 of the last 5
9	Cagliari	11	5	1	5	-5	16	Cagliari won 1 of the last 5
10	Napoli	11	4	3	4	+4	15	Napoli won 1 of the last 5
11	Torino	11	4	2	5	-2	14	Torino won 2 of the last 5
12	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Atalanta won 1 of the last 5
13	Genoa	11	4	1	6	-5	13	Genoa won 3 of the last 5
14	Lecce	11	3	1	7	-10	10	Lecce won 1 of the last 5
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-8	9	Fiorentina won 1 of the last 5
16	Parma	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Parma won 1 of the last 5
17	Sassuolo	11	2	2	7	-13	8	Sassuolo won 0 of the last 5
18	Monza	11	2	1	8	-8	7	Monza won 1 of the last 5
19	Venezia	11	2	0	9	-13	6	Venezia won 2 of the last 5
20	Udinese	11	1	2	8	-13	5	Udinese won 0 of the last 5