Serie A · Review
Serie A matchweek 8 review: results, xG and what the model said
Every Serie A result from matchweek 8 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.
Published , updated · Written from the site’s own data
Serie A, matchweek 8 (23–25 October 2026), is complete: ten matches, 34 goals (3.40 a game), five home wins, two draws and three away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in five of the ten and both teams scored in five.
The result the model rated least likely was the draw in Atalanta v Frosinone (4–4), which it had at 27%; the one it rated most likely was Inter's win in Inter v Fiorentina (2–1), at 66%.
After the round, Inter lead on goal difference from Lazio, both on 22 points, with AS Roma third on 18. The bottom three are Fiorentina (4), Parma (4), Venezia (3).
Match by match
Torino 3–2 MonzaFri 23 Oct, 19:45
Before kick-off the model had Torino 33%, the draw 26% and Monza 41%, with Monza favoured; it put Torino winning at 33%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.40–0.68: Torino created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 57%, came in. Pick published: Torino -0.5 at 2.12 — won.
Cagliari 0–2 BolognaSat 24 Oct, 14:00
Before kick-off the model had Cagliari 37%, the draw 30% and Bologna 33%, with Cagliari favoured; it put Bologna winning at 33%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.44–1.64: Bologna created the better chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 62%, came in.
Como 2–0 SassuoloSat 24 Oct, 14:00
Before kick-off the model had Como 57%, the draw 23% and Sassuolo 19%, so Como winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.69–0.26: Como created the better chances. The headline call, Como to win at 57%, came in.
Napoli 3–3 AS RomaSat 24 Oct, 17:00
Before kick-off the model had Napoli 31%, the draw 28% and AS Roma 42%, with AS Roma favoured; it put the draw at 28%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.51–1.96: Napoli created the better chances. The headline call, AS Roma to win at 42%, did not come in.
Lazio 2–1 ParmaSat 24 Oct, 19:45
Before kick-off the model had Lazio 48%, the draw 31% and Parma 22%, so Lazio winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-0. Expected goals were 1.82–0.87: Lazio created the better chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 67%, did not come in.
Inter 2–1 FiorentinaSun 25 Oct, 11:30
Before kick-off the model had Inter 66%, the draw 19% and Fiorentina 15%, so Inter winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score, 2-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 2.94–0.25: Inter created the better chances. The headline call, Inter to win at 66%, came in. Pick published: Inter -0.75 at 1.45 — half won.
Atalanta 4–4 FrosinoneSun 25 Oct, 14:00
Before kick-off the model had Atalanta 34%, the draw 27% and Frosinone 39%, with Frosinone favoured; it put the draw at 27%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 3.89–1.81: Atalanta created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 55%, came in. Pick published: Under 2.5 at 2.75 (free pick) — lost.
Genoa 1–0 VeneziaSun 25 Oct, 14:00
Before kick-off the model had Genoa 33%, the draw 26% and Venezia 41%, with Venezia favoured; it put Genoa winning at 33%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.41–1.82: Venezia created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, both teams to score at 59%, did not come in.
Lecce 0–2 JuventusSun 25 Oct, 17:00
Before kick-off the model had Lecce 15%, the draw 24% and Juventus 61%, so Juventus winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 0-1. Expected goals were 0.94–1.12: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Juventus to win at 61%, came in.
Udinese 0–2 AC MilanSun 25 Oct, 19:45
Before kick-off the model had Udinese 28%, the draw 27% and AC Milan 45%, so AC Milan winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.59–3.61: AC Milan created the better chances. The headline call, AC Milan to win at 45%, came in. Pick published: AC Milan +0.25 at 1.58 — won.
The numbers this season
Serie A has averaged 3.01 goals a game over 80 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 59% of them and both sides scoring in 56%. Home sides have won 48% of matches, 18% have been drawn and away sides have won 35%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
About these figures
The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.
The results
Each result with the headline call the model published and whether it came in.
Serie A10Most likely prediction
More on Serie A
Probabilities are statistical opinion, not advice, and no outcome is certain. Past predictions don’t indicate future results. Over 18s only; never stake money you cannot afford to lose.