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Serie A predictions: matchweek 8 (23–25 October 2026)
Every Serie A match in matchweek 8 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.
Published , updated · Written from the site’s own data
Serie A, matchweek 8: ten matches, played across 23–25 October 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.
The strongest favourite is Inter, 66% to beat Fiorentina at home; the most evenly balanced game is Cagliari v Bologna (Cagliari 37%, draw 30%, Bologna 33%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Inter v Fiorentina, at 3.55; the tightest looks Lazio v Parma, at 2.03.
Going into the round, Inter lead on 19 points, two points clear of AS Roma, with Lazio third on 16. The bottom three are Fiorentina (4), Genoa (4), Venezia (3).
The numbers this season
Serie A has averaged 2.89 goals a game over 64 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 56% of them and both sides scoring in 59%. Home sides have won 48% of matches, 19% have been drawn and away sides have won 33%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
Match by match
Torino v MonzaFri 23 Oct, 19:45
Our model makes Torino 33%, the draw 26% and Monza 41%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.80 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is both teams to score at 57%. Torino are 12th on 7 points from 6; Monza are 16th on 4 points from 6. Torino have won two of their last five; Monza have won one of their last five.
Cagliari v BolognaSat 24 Oct, 14:00
Our model makes Cagliari 37%, the draw 30% and Bologna 33%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.21 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 45%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 62%. Cagliari are 5th on 13 points from 6; Bologna are 14th on 5 points from 7. Cagliari have won three of their last five; Bologna have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Como v SassuoloSat 24 Oct, 14:00
Our model makes Como 57%, the draw 23% and Sassuolo 19%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 2.90 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is Como to win at 57%. Como are 8th on 11 points from 6; Sassuolo are 11th on 8 points from 7. Como have won three of their last five; Sassuolo have won one of their last five. Como have won two of the sides' last three meetings.
Napoli v AS RomaSat 24 Oct, 17:00
Our model makes Napoli 31%, the draw 28% and AS Roma 42%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.57 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is AS Roma to win at 42%. Napoli are 9th on 10 points from 7; AS Roma are 2nd on 17 points from 7. Napoli have won two of their last five; AS Roma are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws). One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Lazio v ParmaSat 24 Oct, 19:45
Our model makes Lazio 48%, the draw 31% and Parma 22%. The likeliest score is 1-0 (16%), 2.03 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 39%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 67%. Lazio are 3rd on 16 points from 6; Parma are 17th on 4 points from 6. Lazio are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw); Parma have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Inter v FiorentinaSun 25 Oct, 11:30
Our model makes Inter 66%, the draw 19% and Fiorentina 15%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (10%), 3.55 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 47%. Inter are 1st on 19 points from 7; Fiorentina are 18th on 4 points from 6. Inter are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw); Fiorentina have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Atalanta v FrosinoneSun 25 Oct, 14:00
Our model makes Atalanta 34%, the draw 27% and Frosinone 39%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.69 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is both teams to score at 55%. Atalanta are 10th on 9 points from 6; Frosinone are 4th on 13 points from 7. Atalanta have won two of their last five; Frosinone have won three of their last five.
Genoa v VeneziaSun 25 Oct, 14:00
Our model makes Genoa 33%, the draw 26% and Venezia 41%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.91 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is both teams to score at 59%. Genoa are 19th on 4 points from 7; Venezia are 20th on 3 points from 7. Genoa have won one of their last five; Venezia have won one of their last five.
Lecce v JuventusSun 25 Oct, 17:00
Our model makes Lecce 15%, the draw 24% and Juventus 61%. The likeliest score is 0-1 (14%), 2.51 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 44%. The headline call is Juventus to win at 61%. Lecce are 13th on 6 points from 6; Juventus are 7th on 11 points from 6. Lecce have won one of their last five; Juventus have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Udinese v AC MilanSun 25 Oct, 19:45
Our model makes Udinese 28%, the draw 27% and AC Milan 45%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.58 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is AC Milan to win at 45%. Udinese are 15th on 4 points from 6; AC Milan are 6th on 12 points from 6. Udinese have won one of their last five; AC Milan are unbeaten in five (two wins, three draws). The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Udinese wins, draws and AC Milan wins.
How to read these
Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.
The model has published four picks on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.
The fixtures now
The current probability and headline call for each match, updated as forecasts are published; the text above is as written.
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Probabilities are statistical opinion, not advice, and no outcome is certain. Past predictions don’t indicate future results. Over 18s only; never stake money you cannot afford to lose.