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Serie A predictions: matchweek 11 (6–8 November 2026)

Every Serie A match in matchweek 11 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 30 Oct 2026, updated 1 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Serie A, matchweek 11: ten matches, played across 6–8 November 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is AS Roma, 67% to beat Sassuolo at home; the most evenly balanced game is Inter v Como (Inter 38%, draw 25%, Como 37%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is AS Roma v Sassuolo, at 3.61; the tightest looks Parma v Bologna, at 2.24.

Going into the round, Lazio lead on 28 points, three points clear of Inter, with AS Roma third on 24. The bottom three are Parma (5), Udinese (5), Venezia (3).

The numbers this season

Serie A has averaged 3.17 goals a game over 96 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 60% of them and both sides scoring in 58%. Home sides have won 48% of matches, 17% have been drawn and away sides have won 35%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Venezia v UdineseFri 6 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Venezia 43%, the draw 26% and Udinese 30%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.78 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%. The headline call is both teams to score at 56%. Venezia are 20th on 3 points from 10; Udinese are 19th on 5 points from 10. Venezia have won one of their last five; Udinese are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats).

Cagliari v FrosinoneSat 7 Nov, 14:00

Our model makes Cagliari 19%, the draw 22% and Frosinone 59%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.06 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is Frosinone to win at 59%. Cagliari are 11th on 13 points from 10; Frosinone are 6th on 20 points from 10. Cagliari are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); Frosinone have won three of their last five.

Torino v LecceSat 7 Nov, 14:00

Our model makes Torino 46%, the draw 27% and Lecce 27%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.61 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Torino to win at 46%. Torino are 10th on 13 points from 10; Lecce are 14th on 9 points from 9. Torino have won three of their last five; Lecce have won one of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Torino wins, draws and Lecce wins.

Parma v BolognaSat 7 Nov, 17:00

Our model makes Parma 25%, the draw 29% and Bologna 46%. The likeliest score is 0-1 (14%), 2.24 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 45%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 61%. Parma are 18th on 5 points from 9; Bologna are 8th on 14 points from 10. Parma have won one of their last five; Bologna have won four of their last five. Bologna have won two of the sides' last three meetings.

AS Roma v SassuoloSat 7 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes AS Roma 67%, the draw 18% and Sassuolo 15%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.61 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is AS Roma to win at 67%. AS Roma are 3rd on 24 points from 10; Sassuolo are 15th on 8 points from 9. AS Roma are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); Sassuolo are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats). AS Roma have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Napoli v LazioSun 8 Nov, 11:30

Our model makes Napoli 41%, the draw 27% and Lazio 32%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.65 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Napoli to win at 41%. Napoli are 7th on 14 points from 9; Lazio are 1st on 28 points from 10. Napoli have won two of their last five; Lazio have won all of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Napoli wins, draws and Lazio wins.

Genoa v AC MilanSun 8 Nov, 14:00

Our model makes Genoa 30%, the draw 28% and AC Milan 42%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.53 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is AC Milan to win at 42%. Genoa are 13th on 10 points from 9; AC Milan are 5th on 21 points from 10. Genoa have won three of their last five; AC Milan have won three of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Monza v AtalantaSun 8 Nov, 14:00

Our model makes Monza 32%, the draw 24% and Atalanta 44%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.22 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 64%. The headline call is both teams to score at 64%. Monza are 16th on 7 points from 10; Atalanta are 12th on 11 points from 9. Monza have won one of their last five; Atalanta have won one of their last five.

Inter v ComoSun 8 Nov, 17:00

Our model makes Inter 38%, the draw 25% and Como 37%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.12 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is both teams to score at 63%. Inter are 2nd on 25 points from 10; Como are 4th on 23 points from 10. Inter have won four of their last five; Como are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw). Inter have won three of the sides' last four meetings.

Fiorentina v JuventusSun 8 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Fiorentina 25%, the draw 26% and Juventus 50%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.75 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Juventus to win at 50%. Fiorentina are 17th on 5 points from 9; Juventus are 9th on 14 points from 9. Fiorentina are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); Juventus have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

A pick is published only where the best available price stands clear of the model's probability and the market's consensus together; most fixtures get none. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.