Serie A · Review

Serie A matchweek 11 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Serie A result from matchweek 11 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 9 Nov 2026, updated 9 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Serie A, matchweek 11 (6–8 November 2026), is complete: ten matches, 24 goals (2.40 a game), four home wins, three draws and three away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in five of the ten and both teams scored in six.

The result the model rated least likely was Cagliari's win in Cagliari v Frosinone (1–0), which it had at 19%; the one it rated most likely was AS Roma's win in AS Roma v Sassuolo (3–0), at 67%.

After the round, Lazio lead on 29 points, one point clear of Inter, with AS Roma third on 27. The bottom three are Monza (7), Venezia (6), Udinese (5).

Match by match

Venezia 2–1 UdineseFri 6 Nov, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Venezia 43%, the draw 26% and Udinese 30%, so Venezia winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.62–0.98: Venezia created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 56%, came in.

Cagliari 1–0 FrosinoneSat 7 Nov, 14:00

Before kick-off the model had Cagliari 19%, the draw 22% and Frosinone 59%, with Frosinone favoured; it put Cagliari winning at 19%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.97–2.30: Frosinone created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, Frosinone to win at 59%, did not come in. Pick published: Frosinone 0 at 1.78 — lost.

Torino 1–1 LecceSat 7 Nov, 14:00

Before kick-off the model had Torino 46%, the draw 27% and Lecce 27%, with Torino favoured; it put the draw at 27%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 0.97–0.31: Torino created the better chances. The headline call, Torino to win at 46%, did not come in.

Parma 1–2 BolognaSat 7 Nov, 17:00

Before kick-off the model had Parma 25%, the draw 29% and Bologna 46%, so Bologna winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 0-1. Expected goals were 1.52–3.64: Bologna created the better chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 61%, did not come in. Pick published: Bologna +0.25 at 1.58 (free pick) — won.

AS Roma 3–0 SassuoloSat 7 Nov, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had AS Roma 67%, the draw 18% and Sassuolo 15%, so AS Roma winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 3.81–0.34: AS Roma created the better chances. The headline call, AS Roma to win at 67%, came in.

Napoli 1–1 LazioSun 8 Nov, 11:30

Before kick-off the model had Napoli 41%, the draw 27% and Lazio 32%, with Napoli favoured; it put the draw at 27%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 2.44–0.92: Napoli created the better chances. The headline call, Napoli to win at 41%, did not come in. Pick published: Napoli -0.5 at 2.00 — lost.

Genoa 1–2 AC MilanSun 8 Nov, 14:00

Before kick-off the model had Genoa 30%, the draw 28% and AC Milan 42%, so AC Milan winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.22–0.67: Genoa created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, AC Milan to win at 42%, came in. Pick published: Genoa 0 at 3.30 — lost.

Monza 0–1 AtalantaSun 8 Nov, 14:00

Before kick-off the model had Monza 32%, the draw 24% and Atalanta 44%, so Atalanta winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.42–1.33: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 64%, did not come in.

Inter 2–0 ComoSun 8 Nov, 17:00

Before kick-off the model had Inter 38%, the draw 25% and Como 37%, so Inter winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.86–0.23: Inter created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 63%, did not come in.

Fiorentina 2–2 JuventusSun 8 Nov, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Fiorentina 25%, the draw 26% and Juventus 50%, with Juventus favoured; it put the draw at 26%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.14–2.46: Juventus created the better chances. The headline call, Juventus to win at 50%, did not come in. Pick published: Juventus +0.25 at 1.63 (free pick) — half won.

The numbers this season

Serie A has averaged 3.11 goals a game over 110 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 60% of them and both sides scoring in 58%. Home sides have won 46% of matches, 17% have been drawn and away sides have won 36%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.