Serie A · Review

Serie A matchweek 10 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Serie A result from matchweek 10 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 3 Nov 2026, updated 3 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Serie A, matchweek 10 (31 October – 2 November 2026), is complete: ten matches, 34 goals (3.40 a game), six home wins, no draws and four away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in seven of the ten and both teams scored in six.

The result the model rated least likely was Parma's win in Atalanta v Parma (0–3), which it had at 18%; the one it rated most likely was AS Roma's win in Udinese v AS Roma (2–5), at 61%.

After the round, Lazio lead on 28 points, three points clear of Inter, with AS Roma third on 24. The bottom three are Monza (7), Udinese (5), Venezia (3).

Match by match

Bologna 2–1 MonzaSat 31 Oct, 14:00

Before kick-off the model had Bologna 31%, the draw 26% and Monza 43%, with Monza favoured; it put Bologna winning at 31%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.10–1.84: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 57%, came in.

Udinese 2–5 AS RomaSat 31 Oct, 17:00

Before kick-off the model had Udinese 17%, the draw 22% and AS Roma 61%, so AS Roma winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.85–2.82: AS Roma created the better chances. The headline call, AS Roma to win at 61%, came in.

AC Milan 3–1 InterSat 31 Oct, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had AC Milan 27%, the draw 24% and Inter 49%, with Inter favoured; it put AC Milan winning at 27%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.70–1.74: Inter created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, Inter to win at 49%, did not come in.

Como 1–0 VeneziaSun 1 Nov, 11:30

Before kick-off the model had Como 59%, the draw 21% and Venezia 19%, so Como winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 1.63–0.23: Como created the better chances. The headline call, Como to win at 59%, came in.

Frosinone 2–0 TorinoSun 1 Nov, 14:00

Before kick-off the model had Frosinone 55%, the draw 23% and Torino 22%, so Frosinone winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.93–0.68: Frosinone created the better chances. The headline call, Frosinone to win at 55%, came in. Pick published: Frosinone at 2.30 — won.

Lazio 2–1 CagliariSun 1 Nov, 14:00

Before kick-off the model had Lazio 47%, the draw 30% and Cagliari 24%, so Lazio winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-0. Expected goals were 1.03–1.10: an even contest on chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 64%, did not come in. Pick published: Lazio -0.75 at 1.73 — half won.

Lecce 1–2 GenoaSun 1 Nov, 17:00

Before kick-off the model had Lecce 34%, the draw 30% and Genoa 36%, so Genoa winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.23–1.36: an even contest on chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 60%, did not come in.

Juventus 2–0 NapoliSun 1 Nov, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Juventus 43%, the draw 27% and Napoli 30%, so Juventus winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.87–0.58: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Juventus to win at 43%, came in. Pick published: Juventus -0.5 at 1.98 (free pick) — won.

Sassuolo 2–4 FiorentinaMon 2 Nov, 17:30

Before kick-off the model had Sassuolo 40%, the draw 26% and Fiorentina 34%, with Sassuolo favoured; it put Fiorentina winning at 34%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.02–2.41: Fiorentina created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 59%, came in. Pick published: Sassuolo -0.25 at 2.25 (free pick) — lost.

Atalanta 0–3 ParmaMon 2 Nov, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Atalanta 56%, the draw 25% and Parma 18%, with Atalanta favoured; it put Parma winning at 18%. The likeliest score had been 1-0. Expected goals were 3.02–0.52: Atalanta created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, Atalanta to win at 56%, did not come in. Picks published: Under 3.5 at 1.53 — won; Atalanta -0.75 at 1.48 — lost.

The numbers this season

Serie A has averaged 3.18 goals a game over 100 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 61% of them and both sides scoring in 58%. Home sides have won 47% of matches, 16% have been drawn and away sides have won 37%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.