Frosinone v Torino

6th2–011th

14:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Frosinone		Torino
20	Shots	12
8	Shots on target	3
7	Corners	7
14	Fouls	13
1	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	3
304	Passes	362
46%	Possession %	54%
1.93	xG	0.68

Over 1.5: 82%
Over 2.5: 59%
Over 3.5: 37%
Both score: 59%

Model pick: Frosinone 55%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.93 – 1.14

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Frosinone

2.30Bet365 · fair 2.10 · qualifies at 2.17+ · 1.78u

Why this price?

Back Frosinone to win at 2.30 with Bet365.

Our model puts the chance at 55% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 42%; we judge it at 47%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.11. The offered 2.30 implies only 43%, so the price is 9.2% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.78 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Frosinone 1.93, Torino 1.14.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Frosinone	55.3%	1.81	2.30 Bet365	43.5%	+11.9
Match result	Draw	23.0%	4.34	4.10 BetVictor	24.4%	-1.3
Match result	Torino	21.6%	4.63	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	-7.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	81.7%	1.23	1.12 Betano	89.3%	-7.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	18.3%	5.45	7.50 BetVictor	13.3%	+5.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	59.3%	1.69	1.44 Betano	69.4%	-10.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	40.7%	2.46	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	+7.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	36.9%	2.71	2.05 Betfair	48.8%	-11.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	63.1%	1.58	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	+10.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	58.7%	1.70	1.45 Betano	69.0%	-10.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	41.3%	2.42	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	+9.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Frosinone favoured against Torino

Our model makes Frosinone 55% to win this Serie A fixture, with the draw at 23% and Torino at 22%. The goal projection is 1.93 for Frosinone against 1.14 for Torino — a substantial edge to Frosinone on expected output. A combined 3.07 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 10%; 2-0 9%; 1-0 8%; 3-1 6%

This season

Season records for Frosinone and Torino
Frosinone		Torino
11	Played	11
6-2-3	W-D-L	4-2-5
1.82	Pts / game	1.27
2.18	Goals for / game	1.36
1.36	Goals against / game	1.55
55%	Over 2.5	64%
45%	BTTS	73%
27%	Clean sheets	9%
27%	Failed to score	18%
5-0-1	Home record	2-1-3
1-2-2	Away record	2-1-2
L1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Frosinone · Torino

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
22.7	Shots	11.5
7.6	Shots on target	3.8
7.9	Corners	4.0
1.57	Cards	1.25
13.6	Fouls	10.1
50	Possession %	50
2.14	xG	1.28
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.6	Shots	14.5
6.3	Shots on target	4.0
5.6	Corners	5.0
2.14	Cards	1.13
11.1	Fouls	11.5
50	Possession %	50
2.05	xG	1.29
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Frosinone	Metric	Torino
1.80	Goals scored	1.80
1.40	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
1.80 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.52
	Big chances
5.75 (better)	Shots on target	4.00
21.50 (better)	Total shots	12.00
	Touches in opp. box
6.25 (better)	Corners	3.20
45.5	Possession %	50.2 (better)
343	Passes	459 (better)
	Tackles
14.50	Fouls	9.40 (better)
2.50	Offsides	2.20 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.25	Yellow cards	1.20 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Frosinone wins: 1
Draws: 0
Torino wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Frosinone v Torino2–02026-11-01

Serie A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lazio	11	9	2	0	+16	29	Lazio won 4 of the last 5
2	Inter	11	9	1	1	+15	28	Inter won 4 of the last 5
3	AS Roma	11	8	3	0	+21	27	AS Roma won 4 of the last 5
4	AC Milan	11	7	3	1	+10	24	AC Milan won 4 of the last 5
5	Como	11	7	2	2	+8	23	Como won 4 of the last 5
6	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	+9	20	Frosinone won 3 of the last 5
7	Juventus	11	5	3	3	+3	18	Juventus won 2 of the last 5
8	Bologna	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Bologna won 4 of the last 5
9	Cagliari	11	5	1	5	-5	16	Cagliari won 1 of the last 5
10	Napoli	11	4	3	4	+4	15	Napoli won 1 of the last 5
11	Torino	11	4	2	5	-2	14	Torino won 2 of the last 5
12	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Atalanta won 1 of the last 5
13	Genoa	11	4	1	6	-5	13	Genoa won 3 of the last 5
14	Lecce	11	3	1	7	-10	10	Lecce won 1 of the last 5
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-8	9	Fiorentina won 1 of the last 5
16	Parma	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Parma won 1 of the last 5
17	Sassuolo	11	2	2	7	-13	8	Sassuolo won 0 of the last 5
18	Monza	11	2	1	8	-8	7	Monza won 1 of the last 5
19	Venezia	11	2	0	9	-13	6	Venezia won 2 of the last 5
20	Udinese	11	1	2	8	-13	5	Udinese won 0 of the last 5