Sassuolo v 
Fiorentina
Match statistics
| Sassuolo | Fiorentina | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 4 | Offsides | 0 |
| 561 | Passes | 404 |
| 58% | Possession % | 42% |
| 1.02 | xG | 2.41 |
- Over 1.5
- 79%
- Over 2.5
- 55%
- Over 3.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 59%
- Model pick
- Sassuolo 40%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.50 – 1.38
Advised bets
Lost
Free pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Sassuolo -0.25
Why this price?
Back Sassuolo -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.25 with Bet365 — Sassuolo must win by more than 0.25 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 46% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 50%; we judge it at 48%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.07. The offered 2.25 implies only 44%, so the price is 9.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.79 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Sassuolo 1.50, Fiorentina 1.38.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Sassuolo | 39.7% | 2.52 | 2.90 Betfair | 34.5% | +5.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 26.0% | 3.85 | 3.80 BetVictor | 26.3% | -0.3 |
| Match result | Fiorentina | 34.3% | 2.91 | 2.40 Betano | 41.7% | -7.3 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 78.8% | 1.27 | 1.19 Betano | 84.0% | -5.2 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 21.2% | 4.72 | 5.40 BetVictor | 18.5% | +2.7 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 55.0% | 1.82 | 1.60 Betano | 62.5% | -7.5 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 45.0% | 2.22 | 2.50 Bet365 | 40.0% | +5.0 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 32.6% | 3.06 | 2.62 Bet365 | 38.2% | -5.5 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 67.4% | 1.48 | 1.62 Bet365 | 61.7% | +5.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 58.8% | 1.70 | 1.50 William Hill | 66.7% | -7.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 41.2% | 2.42 | 2.80 Betfair | 35.7% | +5.5 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Sassuolo v Fiorentina: too close to call
Our model makes Sassuolo 40% to win this Serie A fixture, with the draw at 26% and Fiorentina at 34%. The goal projection is 1.50 for Sassuolo against 1.38 for Fiorentina — a slight edge to Sassuolo on expected output. A combined 2.88 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-2 8%
- 1-0 8%
- 0-1 7%
This season
| Sassuolo | Fiorentina | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Played | 11 |
| 2-2-7 | W-D-L | 2-3-6 |
| 0.73 | Pts / game | 0.82 |
| 1.45 | Goals for / game | 1.55 |
| 2.64 | Goals against / game | 2.27 |
| 82% | Over 2.5 | 91% |
| 82% | BTTS | 82% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 18% | Failed to score | 18% |
| 2-1-2 | Home record | 0-3-3 |
| 0-1-5 | Away record | 2-0-3 |
| L5 | Streak | D1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sassuolo · Fiorentina
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 10.4 | Shots | 17.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Shots on target | 4.6 |
| 3.4 | Corners | 5.1 |
| 1.42 | Cards | 2.57 |
| 10.0 | Fouls | 12.6 |
| 48 | Possession % | 47 |
| 1.03 | xG | 1.53 |
| 8 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 17.4 | Shots | 15.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 7.4 | Shots on target | 5.9 |
| 6.1 | Corners | 5.4 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 2.14 |
| 12.5 | Fouls | 12.6 |
| 52 | Possession % | 53 |
| 2.24 | xG | 1.71 |
| 8 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Sassuolo | Metric | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| 1.40 | Goals scored | 1.40 |
| 2.20 | Goals conceded | 1.60 (better) |
| 1.17 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.08 |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.80 (better) | Shots on target | 4.60 |
| 12.20 | Total shots | 13.80 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.80 | Corners | 4.60 (better) |
| 50.0 (better) | Possession % | 48.4 |
| 474 (better) | Passes | 451 |
| Tackles | ||
| 9.60 (better) | Fouls | 12.80 |
| 2.60 | Offsides | 2.00 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.60 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.60 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Sassuolo wins
- 1
- Draws
- 1
- Fiorentina wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 3.33
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 67%
- Sassuolo v Fiorentina2–42026-11-02
- Fiorentina v Sassuolo0–02026-04-26
- Sassuolo v Fiorentina3–12025-12-06
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | +16 | 29 | Lazio won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Inter | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | +15 | 28 | Inter won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | +21 | 27 | AS Roma won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | +10 | 24 | AC Milan won 4 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Como | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | +8 | 23 | Como won 4 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +9 | 20 | Frosinone won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Juventus | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +3 | 18 | Juventus won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Bologna | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 17 | Bologna won 4 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Cagliari | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 16 | Cagliari won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Napoli | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +4 | 15 | Napoli won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Torino | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 | Torino won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Atalanta | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 14 | Atalanta won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Genoa | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 13 | Genoa won 3 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Lecce | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 10 | Lecce won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Fiorentina | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 9 | Fiorentina won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Parma | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 8 | Parma won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Sassuolo | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 8 | Sassuolo won 0 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Monza | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -8 | 7 | Monza won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Venezia | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -13 | 6 | Venezia won 2 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Udinese | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -13 | 5 | Udinese won 0 of the last 5 |