Lazio v Cagliari

1st2–19th

14:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Lazio		Cagliari
11	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	3
2	Corners	2
7	Fouls	18
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	1
3	Offsides	2
746	Passes	263
74%	Possession %	26%
1.03	xG	1.10

Over 1.5: 64%
Over 2.5: 36%
Over 3.5: 17%
Both score: 42%

Model pick: Lazio 47%
Likely score: 1-0 15%
Expected goals: 1.30 – 0.85

Advised bets

Half wonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Lazio -0.75

1.73Marathonbet · fair 1.56 · qualifies at 1.61+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Lazio -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.73 with Marathonbet — Lazio must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 39% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 81%; we judge it at 64%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.56. The offered 1.73 implies only 58%, so the price is 10.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Lazio 1.30, Cagliari 0.85.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Lazio	46.6%	2.14	1.52 Betano	65.8%	-19.2
Match result	Draw	29.8%	3.36	4.75 Bet365	21.1%	+8.7
Match result	Cagliari	23.6%	4.24	7.80 Betano	12.8%	+10.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	64.0%	1.56	1.28 Bet365	78.1%	-14.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	36.0%	2.77	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	+11.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	36.4%	2.75	1.82 Betano	54.9%	-18.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	63.6%	1.57	2.05 Betfair	48.8%	+14.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	17.1%	5.85	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	-15.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	82.9%	1.21	1.42 Betano	70.4%	+12.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	42.2%	2.37	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	-7.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	57.8%	1.73	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	+4.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Lazio favoured against Cagliari

Our model makes Lazio 47% to win this Serie A fixture, with the draw at 30% and Cagliari at 24%. The goal projection is 1.30 for Lazio against 0.85 for Cagliari — a clear edge to Lazio on expected output. A combined 2.15 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 36% and both teams to score at 42%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 15%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-0 15%; 1-1 13%; 0-0 12%; 2-0 10%; 0-1 9%

This season

Season records for Lazio and Cagliari
Lazio		Cagliari
11	Played	11
9-2-0	W-D-L	5-1-5
2.64	Pts / game	1.45
2.27	Goals for / game	0.91
0.82	Goals against / game	1.36
64%	Over 2.5	36%
64%	BTTS	36%
36%	Clean sheets	36%
0%	Failed to score	27%
4-1-0	Home record	2-1-2
5-1-0	Away record	3-0-3
D1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Lazio · Cagliari

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.4	Shots	10.1
5.0	Shots on target	3.6
4.7	Corners	3.3
1.29	Cards	2.02
8.7	Fouls	13.6
59	Possession %	39
1.59	xG	1.28
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.9	Shots	18.9
4.0	Shots on target	6.7
4.4	Corners	7.9
2.50	Cards	1.29
11.3	Fouls	9.7
41	Possession %	61
1.40	xG	2.02
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Lazio	Metric	Cagliari
2.60 (better)	Goals scored	0.80
0.80 (better)	Goals conceded	1.40
1.34 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.05
	Big chances
4.00 (better)	Shots on target	2.80
12.67 (better)	Total shots	6.20
	Touches in opp. box
5.33 (better)	Corners	2.40
52.7 (better)	Possession %	42.0
495 (better)	Passes	389
	Tackles
8.33 (better)	Fouls	10.40
0.33 (better)	Offsides	2.20
	Throw-ins
1.67	Yellow cards	1.50 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Lazio wins: 2
Draws: 1
Cagliari wins: 0
Goals / game: 1.67
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

Lazio v Cagliari2–12026-11-01
Cagliari v Lazio0–02026-02-21
Lazio v Cagliari2–02025-11-03

Serie A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lazio	11	9	2	0	+16	29	Lazio won 4 of the last 5
2	Inter	11	9	1	1	+15	28	Inter won 4 of the last 5
3	AS Roma	11	8	3	0	+21	27	AS Roma won 4 of the last 5
4	AC Milan	11	7	3	1	+10	24	AC Milan won 4 of the last 5
5	Como	11	7	2	2	+8	23	Como won 4 of the last 5
6	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	+9	20	Frosinone won 3 of the last 5
7	Juventus	11	5	3	3	+3	18	Juventus won 2 of the last 5
8	Bologna	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Bologna won 4 of the last 5
9	Cagliari	11	5	1	5	-5	16	Cagliari won 1 of the last 5
10	Napoli	11	4	3	4	+4	15	Napoli won 1 of the last 5
11	Torino	11	4	2	5	-2	14	Torino won 2 of the last 5
12	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Atalanta won 1 of the last 5
13	Genoa	11	4	1	6	-5	13	Genoa won 3 of the last 5
14	Lecce	11	3	1	7	-10	10	Lecce won 1 of the last 5
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-8	9	Fiorentina won 1 of the last 5
16	Parma	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Parma won 1 of the last 5
17	Sassuolo	11	2	2	7	-13	8	Sassuolo won 0 of the last 5
18	Monza	11	2	1	8	-8	7	Monza won 1 of the last 5
19	Venezia	11	2	0	9	-13	6	Venezia won 2 of the last 5
20	Udinese	11	1	2	8	-13	5	Udinese won 0 of the last 5