Juventus v Napoli

7th2–010th

19:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Juventus		Napoli
18	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	1
13	Corners	4
9	Fouls	12
3	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	1
3	Offsides	1
441	Passes	483
49%	Possession %	51%
0.87	xG	0.58

Over 1.5: 74%
Over 2.5: 49%
Over 3.5: 27%
Both score: 53%

Model pick: Juventus 43%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.46 – 1.17

Advised bets

Won

Free pick

Juventus -0.5

1.98Bet365 · fair 1.77 · qualifies at 1.83+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Juventus -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.98 with Bet365 — Juventus must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 43% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 65%; we judge it at 56%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.77. The offered 1.98 implies only 51%, so the price is 11.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Juventus 1.46, Napoli 1.17.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Juventus	43.2%	2.32	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	+1.1
Match result	Draw	27.2%	3.68	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	-1.4
Match result	Napoli	29.7%	3.37	3.40 Betfair	29.4%	+0.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	74.3%	1.35	1.32 Betano	75.8%	-1.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	53.4%	1.87	1.83 Betfair	54.6%	-1.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	25.7%	3.89	3.75 Bet365	26.7%	-0.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	48.7%	2.05	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	-1.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	51.3%	1.95	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-1.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	26.9%	3.72	3.50 Betfair	28.6%	-1.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	73.1%	1.37	1.35 Betano	74.1%	-0.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	46.6%	2.15	2.25 Betfair	44.4%	+2.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Juventus favoured against Napoli

Our model makes Juventus 43% to win this Serie A fixture, with the draw at 27% and Napoli at 30%. The goal projection is 1.46 for Juventus against 1.17 for Napoli — a clear edge to Juventus on expected output. A combined 2.62 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 10%; 2-1 9%; 0-0 8%; 0-1 8%

This season

Season records for Juventus and Napoli
Juventus		Napoli
11	Played	11
5-3-3	W-D-L	4-3-4
1.64	Pts / game	1.36
1.36	Goals for / game	1.64
1.09	Goals against / game	1.27
27%	Over 2.5	45%
36%	BTTS	55%
45%	Clean sheets	27%
18%	Failed to score	18%
3-1-1	Home record	2-2-1
2-2-2	Away record	2-1-3
D1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Juventus · Napoli

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.6	Shots	16.1
5.1	Shots on target	6.1
8.1	Corners	5.9
1.38	Cards	1.07
10.6	Fouls	9.3
59	Possession %	55
1.36	xG	1.88
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.8	Shots	14.6
3.3	Shots on target	3.8
4.5	Corners	5.0
1.71	Cards	2.13
9.5	Fouls	10.6
41	Possession %	45
0.93	xG	1.00
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Juventus	Metric	Napoli
1.00	Goals scored	2.20 (better)
1.60 (better)	Goals conceded	2.00
1.73	Expected goals (xG)	2.25 (better)
	Big chances
5.50	Shots on target	7.60 (better)
16.75	Total shots	18.20 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
7.00 (better)	Corners	5.20
59.3 (better)	Possession %	50.6
607 (better)	Passes	500
	Tackles
12.00	Fouls	8.40 (better)
3.67	Offsides	2.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.00 (better)	Yellow cards	1.80
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Juventus wins: 2
Draws: 0
Napoli wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.67
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 33%

Juventus v Napoli2–02026-11-01
Juventus v Napoli3–02026-01-25
Napoli v Juventus2–12025-12-07

Serie A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lazio	11	9	2	0	+16	29	Lazio won 4 of the last 5
2	Inter	11	9	1	1	+15	28	Inter won 4 of the last 5
3	AS Roma	11	8	3	0	+21	27	AS Roma won 4 of the last 5
4	AC Milan	11	7	3	1	+10	24	AC Milan won 4 of the last 5
5	Como	11	7	2	2	+8	23	Como won 4 of the last 5
6	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	+9	20	Frosinone won 3 of the last 5
7	Juventus	11	5	3	3	+3	18	Juventus won 2 of the last 5
8	Bologna	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Bologna won 4 of the last 5
9	Cagliari	11	5	1	5	-5	16	Cagliari won 1 of the last 5
10	Napoli	11	4	3	4	+4	15	Napoli won 1 of the last 5
11	Torino	11	4	2	5	-2	14	Torino won 2 of the last 5
12	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Atalanta won 1 of the last 5
13	Genoa	11	4	1	6	-5	13	Genoa won 3 of the last 5
14	Lecce	11	3	1	7	-10	10	Lecce won 1 of the last 5
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-8	9	Fiorentina won 1 of the last 5
16	Parma	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Parma won 1 of the last 5
17	Sassuolo	11	2	2	7	-13	8	Sassuolo won 0 of the last 5
18	Monza	11	2	1	8	-8	7	Monza won 1 of the last 5
19	Venezia	11	2	0	9	-13	6	Venezia won 2 of the last 5
20	Udinese	11	1	2	8	-13	5	Udinese won 0 of the last 5