Serie A · Preview
Serie A predictions: matchweek 10 (31 October – 2 November 2026)
Every Serie A match in matchweek 10 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.
Published , updated · Written from the site’s own data
Serie A, matchweek 10: ten matches, played across 31 October – 2 November 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.
The strongest favourite is AS Roma, 61% to beat Udinese away; the most evenly balanced game is Lecce v Genoa (Lecce 34%, draw 30%, Genoa 36%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Como v Venezia, at 3.25; the tightest looks Lazio v Cagliari, at 2.15.
Going into the round, Inter lead on goal difference from Lazio, both on 22 points, with AS Roma third on 18. The bottom three are Fiorentina (4), Parma (4), Venezia (3).
The numbers this season
Serie A has averaged 3.01 goals a game over 80 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 59% of them and both sides scoring in 56%. Home sides have won 48% of matches, 18% have been drawn and away sides have won 35%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
Match by match
Bologna v MonzaSat 31 Oct, 14:00
Our model makes Bologna 31%, the draw 26% and Monza 43%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.79 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is both teams to score at 57%. Bologna are 13th on 8 points from 8; Monza are 15th on 7 points from 8. Bologna have won two of their last five; Monza have won two of their last five.
Udinese v AS RomaSat 31 Oct, 17:00
Our model makes Udinese 17%, the draw 22% and AS Roma 61%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 2.97 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is AS Roma to win at 61%. Udinese are 17th on 4 points from 8; AS Roma are 3rd on 18 points from 8. Udinese have lost all of their last five; AS Roma are unbeaten in five (two wins, three draws). The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Udinese wins, draws and AS Roma wins.
AC Milan v InterSat 31 Oct, 19:45
Our model makes AC Milan 27%, the draw 24% and Inter 49%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.17 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is Inter to win at 49%. AC Milan are 4th on 18 points from 8; Inter are 1st on 22 points from 8. AC Milan are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); Inter are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw). AC Milan have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Como v VeneziaSun 1 Nov, 11:30
Our model makes Como 59%, the draw 21% and Venezia 19%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (10%), 3.25 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is Como to win at 59%. Como are 5th on 17 points from 8; Venezia are 20th on 3 points from 8. Como have won three of their last five; Venezia have won one of their last five.
Frosinone v TorinoSun 1 Nov, 14:00
Our model makes Frosinone 55%, the draw 23% and Torino 22%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.07 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is Frosinone to win at 55%. Frosinone are 6th on 14 points from 8; Torino are 8th on 13 points from 8. Frosinone have won two of their last five; Torino have won three of their last five.
Lazio v CagliariSun 1 Nov, 14:00
Our model makes Lazio 47%, the draw 30% and Cagliari 24%. The likeliest score is 1-0 (15%), 2.15 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 42%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 64%. Lazio are 2nd on 22 points from 8; Cagliari are 9th on 13 points from 8. Lazio are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw); Cagliari have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Lecce v GenoaSun 1 Nov, 17:00
Our model makes Lecce 34%, the draw 30% and Genoa 36%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.27 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 47%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 60%. Lecce are 12th on 9 points from 8; Genoa are 16th on 7 points from 8. Lecce have won two of their last five; Genoa have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Juventus v NapoliSun 1 Nov, 19:45
Our model makes Juventus 43%, the draw 27% and Napoli 30%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.62 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Juventus to win at 43%. Juventus are 7th on 14 points from 8; Napoli are 10th on 11 points from 8. Juventus have won two of their last five; Napoli have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Juventus wins, draws and Napoli wins.
Sassuolo v FiorentinaMon 2 Nov, 17:30
Our model makes Sassuolo 40%, the draw 26% and Fiorentina 34%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.88 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is both teams to score at 59%. Sassuolo are 14th on 8 points from 8; Fiorentina are 18th on 4 points from 8. Sassuolo have won one of their last five; Fiorentina have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Atalanta v ParmaMon 2 Nov, 19:45
Our model makes Atalanta 56%, the draw 25% and Parma 18%. The likeliest score is 1-0 (13%), 2.50 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 46%. The headline call is Atalanta to win at 56%. Atalanta are 11th on 10 points from 8; Parma are 19th on 4 points from 8. Atalanta have won one of their last five; Parma have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
How to read these
Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.
The model has published four picks on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.
The fixtures now
The current probability and headline call for each match, updated as forecasts are published; the text above is as written.
Serie A10Most likely prediction
More on Serie A
Probabilities are statistical opinion, not advice, and no outcome is certain. Past predictions don’t indicate future results. Over 18s only; never stake money you cannot afford to lose.