AC Milan v Inter

4th3–12nd

19:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
AC Milan		Inter
7	Shots	19
4	Shots on target	8
3	Corners	11
8	Fouls	14
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	4
409	Passes	525
43%	Possession %	57%
0.70	xG	1.74

Over 1.5: 83%
Over 2.5: 61%
Over 3.5: 39%
Both score: 62%

Model pick: Inter 49%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.32 – 1.85

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	AC Milan	27.0%	3.70	3.70 Bet365	27.0%	-0.0
Match result	Draw	23.7%	4.21	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	-2.6
Match result	Inter	49.2%	2.03	2.10 Bet365	47.6%	+1.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	83.0%	1.21	1.24 Betano	80.6%	+2.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	17.0%	5.89	4.80 BetVictor	20.8%	-3.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	61.4%	1.63	1.75 Betano	57.1%	+4.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	38.6%	2.59	2.30 Bet365	43.5%	-4.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	39.1%	2.56	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	+4.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	60.9%	1.64	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	-4.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	62.3%	1.60	1.62 William Hill	61.7%	+0.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	37.7%	2.65	2.50 Betano	40.0%	-2.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Inter favoured against AC Milan

Our model makes AC Milan 27% to win this Serie A fixture, with the draw at 24% and Inter at 49%. The goal projection is 1.32 for AC Milan against 1.85 for Inter — a substantial edge to Inter on expected output. A combined 3.17 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-2 9%; 0-1 7%; 0-2 7%; 2-1 7%

This season

Season records for AC Milan and Inter
AC Milan		Inter
11	Played	11
7-3-1	W-D-L	9-1-1
2.18	Pts / game	2.55
2.09	Goals for / game	2.55
1.18	Goals against / game	1.18
64%	Over 2.5	73%
73%	BTTS	64%
27%	Clean sheets	36%
0%	Failed to score	0%
4-0-1	Home record	6-0-0
3-3-0	Away record	3-1-1
W2	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. AC Milan · Inter

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.3	Shots	20.1
4.6	Shots on target	7.0
2.6	Corners	6.0
1.86	Cards	1.38
9.6	Fouls	11.1
59	Possession %	59
1.81	xG	2.57
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.1	Shots	9.4
4.9	Shots on target	3.3
4.3	Corners	2.1
1.43	Cards	1.63
13.3	Fouls	9.0
41	Possession %	41
1.23	xG	0.88
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
AC Milan	Metric	Inter
2.20	Goals scored	2.40 (better)
1.20	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
1.91	Expected goals (xG)	2.75 (better)
	Big chances
5.20	Shots on target	7.75 (better)
10.00	Total shots	19.75 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.00	Corners	4.50 (better)
53.6	Possession %	55.5 (better)
538	Passes	569 (better)
	Tackles
10.00	Fouls	9.75 (better)
1.60 (better)	Offsides	3.25
	Throw-ins
1.80 (better)	Yellow cards	3.00
1.00	Red cards	1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

AC Milan wins: 3
Draws: 0
Inter wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

AC Milan v Inter3–12026-10-31
AC Milan v Inter1–02026-03-08
Inter v AC Milan0–12025-11-23

Serie A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lazio	11	9	2	0	+16	29	Lazio won 4 of the last 5
2	Inter	11	9	1	1	+15	28	Inter won 4 of the last 5
3	AS Roma	11	8	3	0	+21	27	AS Roma won 4 of the last 5
4	AC Milan	11	7	3	1	+10	24	AC Milan won 4 of the last 5
5	Como	11	7	2	2	+8	23	Como won 4 of the last 5
6	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	+9	20	Frosinone won 3 of the last 5
7	Juventus	11	5	3	3	+3	18	Juventus won 2 of the last 5
8	Bologna	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Bologna won 4 of the last 5
9	Cagliari	11	5	1	5	-5	16	Cagliari won 1 of the last 5
10	Napoli	11	4	3	4	+4	15	Napoli won 1 of the last 5
11	Torino	11	4	2	5	-2	14	Torino won 2 of the last 5
12	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Atalanta won 1 of the last 5
13	Genoa	11	4	1	6	-5	13	Genoa won 3 of the last 5
14	Lecce	11	3	1	7	-10	10	Lecce won 1 of the last 5
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-8	9	Fiorentina won 1 of the last 5
16	Parma	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Parma won 1 of the last 5
17	Sassuolo	11	2	2	7	-13	8	Sassuolo won 0 of the last 5
18	Monza	11	2	1	8	-8	7	Monza won 1 of the last 5
19	Venezia	11	2	0	9	-13	6	Venezia won 2 of the last 5
20	Udinese	11	1	2	8	-13	5	Udinese won 0 of the last 5