Lecce v Genoa

14th1–213th

17:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Lecce		Genoa
18	Shots	13
7	Shots on target	3
6	Corners	3
19	Fouls	9
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	3
399	Passes	366
53%	Possession %	47%
1.23	xG	1.36

Over 1.5: 67%
Over 2.5: 40%
Over 3.5: 20%
Both score: 47%

Model pick: Genoa 36%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.11 – 1.17

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Lecce	33.6%	2.97	3.60 Betfair	27.8%	+5.9
Match result	Draw	29.9%	3.35	3.15 Betano	31.7%	-1.9
Match result	Genoa	36.5%	2.74	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	-2.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	67.0%	1.49	1.47 Betano	68.0%	-1.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	33.0%	3.03	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	-1.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	39.7%	2.52	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	-1.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	60.3%	1.66	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	-1.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	19.6%	5.11	5.00 Betfair	20.0%	-0.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	80.4%	1.24	1.22 Bet365	82.0%	-1.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	46.8%	2.14	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	-3.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	53.2%	1.88	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	-0.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Lecce v Genoa: too close to call

Our model makes Lecce 34% to win this Serie A fixture, with the draw at 30% and Genoa at 36%. The goal projection is 1.11 for Lecce against 1.17 for Genoa — almost nothing to Genoa on expected output. A combined 2.27 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 40% and both teams to score at 47%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 0-1 11%; 0-0 11%; 1-0 11%; 1-2 8%

This season

Season records for Lecce and Genoa
Lecce		Genoa
11	Played	11
3-1-7	W-D-L	4-1-6
0.91	Pts / game	1.18
1.09	Goals for / game	1.00
2.00	Goals against / game	1.45
64%	Over 2.5	45%
45%	BTTS	55%
18%	Clean sheets	18%
36%	Failed to score	27%
1-0-4	Home record	3-1-3
2-1-3	Away record	1-0-3
D1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Lecce · Genoa

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.9	Shots	11.7
5.3	Shots on target	3.4
5.1	Corners	3.6
1.91	Cards	2.14
15.0	Fouls	10.3
42	Possession %	42
1.27	xG	0.94
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.9	Shots	13.3
3.9	Shots on target	4.0
3.7	Corners	5.1
0.57	Cards	2.14
9.9	Fouls	12.6
58	Possession %	58
1.55	xG	1.13
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Lecce	Metric	Genoa
1.40 (better)	Goals scored	0.80
1.60	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
1.35 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.88
	Big chances
5.00 (better)	Shots on target	4.00
11.80	Total shots	14.50 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.20	Corners	5.25 (better)
43.6	Possession %	45.3 (better)
362	Passes	387 (better)
	Tackles
14.00	Fouls	10.50 (better)
2.20 (better)	Offsides	2.25
	Throw-ins
1.80 (better)	Yellow cards	2.75
	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Lecce wins: 1
Draws: 1
Genoa wins: 1
Goals / game: 1.33
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

Lecce v Genoa1–22026-11-01
Lecce v Genoa1–02026-05-24
Genoa v Lecce0–02025-08-23

Serie A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lazio	11	9	2	0	+16	29	Lazio won 4 of the last 5
2	Inter	11	9	1	1	+15	28	Inter won 4 of the last 5
3	AS Roma	11	8	3	0	+21	27	AS Roma won 4 of the last 5
4	AC Milan	11	7	3	1	+10	24	AC Milan won 4 of the last 5
5	Como	11	7	2	2	+8	23	Como won 4 of the last 5
6	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	+9	20	Frosinone won 3 of the last 5
7	Juventus	11	5	3	3	+3	18	Juventus won 2 of the last 5
8	Bologna	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Bologna won 4 of the last 5
9	Cagliari	11	5	1	5	-5	16	Cagliari won 1 of the last 5
10	Napoli	11	4	3	4	+4	15	Napoli won 1 of the last 5
11	Torino	11	4	2	5	-2	14	Torino won 2 of the last 5
12	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Atalanta won 1 of the last 5
13	Genoa	11	4	1	6	-5	13	Genoa won 3 of the last 5
14	Lecce	11	3	1	7	-10	10	Lecce won 1 of the last 5
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-8	9	Fiorentina won 1 of the last 5
16	Parma	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Parma won 1 of the last 5
17	Sassuolo	11	2	2	7	-13	8	Sassuolo won 0 of the last 5
18	Monza	11	2	1	8	-8	7	Monza won 1 of the last 5
19	Venezia	11	2	0	9	-13	6	Venezia won 2 of the last 5
20	Udinese	11	1	2	8	-13	5	Udinese won 0 of the last 5