Atalanta v Parma

12th0–316th

19:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Atalanta		Parma
20	Shots	6
6	Shots on target	3
8	Corners	5
8	Fouls	10
0	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
4	Offsides	0
659	Passes	293
70%	Possession %	30%
3.02	xG	0.52

Over 1.5: 72%
Over 2.5: 46%
Over 3.5: 24%
Both score: 46%

Model pick: Atalanta 56%
Likely score: 1-0 13%
Expected goals: 1.66 – 0.83

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Under 3.5

1.53Bet365 · fair 1.45 · qualifies at 1.51+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back under 3.5 goals at 1.53 with Bet365 — 3 goals or fewer in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 76% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 64%; we judge it at 69%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.45. The offered 1.53 implies only 65%, so the price is 5.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Atalanta 1.66, Parma 0.83.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Atalanta -0.75

1.48Bet365 · fair 1.41 · qualifies at 1.45+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Atalanta -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.48 with Bet365 — Atalanta must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 50% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 85%; we judge it at 71%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.41. The offered 1.48 implies only 68%, so the price is 5.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Atalanta 1.66, Parma 0.83.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Atalanta	56.5%	1.77	1.52 Betano	65.8%	-9.3
Match result	Draw	25.4%	3.94	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	+5.4
Match result	Parma	18.1%	5.52	7.50 Betfair	13.3%	+4.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	71.8%	1.39	1.20 Betano	83.3%	-11.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	28.2%	3.55	6.50 BetVictor	15.4%	+12.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	45.6%	2.19	1.62 Betano	61.7%	-16.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	54.4%	1.84	2.70 Betano	37.0%	+17.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	24.2%	4.13	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	-15.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	75.8%	1.32	1.72 Betano	58.1%	+17.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	46.4%	2.15	1.83 Betano	54.6%	-8.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	53.6%	1.87	2.30 William Hill	43.5%	+10.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Atalanta favoured against Parma

Our model makes Atalanta 57% to win this Serie A fixture, with the draw at 25% and Parma at 18%. The goal projection is 1.66 for Atalanta against 0.83 for Parma — a substantial edge to Atalanta on expected output. A combined 2.50 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 46% and both teams to score at 46%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-0 13%; 1-1 12%; 2-0 11%; 2-1 9%; 0-0 9%

This season

Season records for Atalanta and Parma
Atalanta		Parma
11	Played	11
4-2-5	W-D-L	2-2-7
1.27	Pts / game	0.73
1.55	Goals for / game	0.82
1.82	Goals against / game	1.55
73%	Over 2.5	64%
64%	BTTS	45%
18%	Clean sheets	18%
18%	Failed to score	45%
3-1-2	Home record	1-2-3
1-1-3	Away record	1-0-4
W1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Atalanta · Parma

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.7	Shots	10.8
6.3	Shots on target	3.4
5.0	Corners	3.1
1.45	Cards	1.54
9.7	Fouls	10.3
48	Possession %	38
2.00	xG	0.99
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.4	Shots	20.4
5.6	Shots on target	5.9
6.0	Corners	7.3
2.14	Cards	1.38
9.0	Fouls	11.4
52	Possession %	62
1.68	xG	2.21
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Atalanta	Metric	Parma
2.40 (better)	Goals scored	0.80
2.20	Goals conceded	2.20
2.45 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.92
	Big chances
6.40 (better)	Shots on target	4.00
18.40 (better)	Total shots	12.20
	Touches in opp. box
6.60 (better)	Corners	3.20
46.0 (better)	Possession %	40.6
463 (better)	Passes	377
	Tackles
10.40	Fouls	9.80 (better)
1.20 (better)	Offsides	2.40
	Throw-ins
1.50 (better)	Yellow cards	1.75
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Atalanta wins: 1
Draws: 1
Parma wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 33%

Atalanta v Parma0–32026-11-02
Atalanta v Parma4–02026-01-25
Parma v Atalanta1–12025-08-30

Serie A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lazio	11	9	2	0	+16	29	Lazio won 4 of the last 5
2	Inter	11	9	1	1	+15	28	Inter won 4 of the last 5
3	AS Roma	11	8	3	0	+21	27	AS Roma won 4 of the last 5
4	AC Milan	11	7	3	1	+10	24	AC Milan won 4 of the last 5
5	Como	11	7	2	2	+8	23	Como won 4 of the last 5
6	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	+9	20	Frosinone won 3 of the last 5
7	Juventus	11	5	3	3	+3	18	Juventus won 2 of the last 5
8	Bologna	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Bologna won 4 of the last 5
9	Cagliari	11	5	1	5	-5	16	Cagliari won 1 of the last 5
10	Napoli	11	4	3	4	+4	15	Napoli won 1 of the last 5
11	Torino	11	4	2	5	-2	14	Torino won 2 of the last 5
12	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Atalanta won 1 of the last 5
13	Genoa	11	4	1	6	-5	13	Genoa won 3 of the last 5
14	Lecce	11	3	1	7	-10	10	Lecce won 1 of the last 5
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-8	9	Fiorentina won 1 of the last 5
16	Parma	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Parma won 1 of the last 5
17	Sassuolo	11	2	2	7	-13	8	Sassuolo won 0 of the last 5
18	Monza	11	2	1	8	-8	7	Monza won 1 of the last 5
19	Venezia	11	2	0	9	-13	6	Venezia won 2 of the last 5
20	Udinese	11	1	2	8	-13	5	Udinese won 0 of the last 5