Monza v Atalanta

18th0–112th

14:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Monza		Atalanta
22	Shots	13
7	Shots on target	7
7	Corners	2
11	Fouls	6
4	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	0
464	Passes	513
49%	Possession %	51%
1.42	xG	1.33

Over 1.5: 84%
Over 2.5: 62%
Over 3.5: 40%
Both score: 64%

Model pick: Atalanta 44%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.47 – 1.74

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Monza	32.2%	3.10	3.60 Bet365	27.8%	+4.4
Match result	Draw	24.2%	4.13	4.00 BetVictor	25.0%	-0.8
Match result	Atalanta	43.6%	2.29	2.10 Bet365	47.6%	-4.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	83.6%	1.20	1.17 Bet365	85.5%	-1.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	16.4%	6.09	6.00 Betfair	16.7%	-0.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	62.3%	1.60	1.52 Betano	65.8%	-3.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	37.7%	2.65	2.75 Betfair	36.4%	+1.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	40.1%	2.50	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	-0.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	59.9%	1.67	1.73 Bet365	57.8%	+2.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	64.1%	1.56	1.44 William Hill	69.4%	-5.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	35.9%	2.78	3.00 Betfair	33.3%	+2.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Atalanta favoured against Monza

Our model makes Monza 32% to win this Serie A fixture, with the draw at 24% and Atalanta at 44%. The goal projection is 1.47 for Monza against 1.74 for Atalanta — a clear edge to Atalanta on expected output. A combined 3.22 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 8%; 2-2 7%; 0-1 6%

This season

Season records for Monza and Atalanta
Monza		Atalanta
11	Played	11
2-1-8	W-D-L	4-2-5
0.64	Pts / game	1.27
1.55	Goals for / game	1.55
2.27	Goals against / game	1.82
82%	Over 2.5	73%
82%	BTTS	64%
9%	Clean sheets	18%
9%	Failed to score	18%
2-0-3	Home record	3-1-2
0-1-5	Away record	1-1-3
L4	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Monza · Atalanta

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.9	Shots	15.7
5.3	Shots on target	6.3
4.3	Corners	5.0
2.45	Cards	1.45
11.4	Fouls	9.7
41	Possession %	48
1.47	xG	2.00
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.6	Shots	17.4
6.6	Shots on target	5.6
4.4	Corners	6.0
1.86	Cards	2.14
9.0	Fouls	9.0
59	Possession %	52
1.63	xG	1.68
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Monza	Metric	Atalanta
1.80	Goals scored	2.20 (better)
2.40	Goals conceded	2.40
1.51	Expected goals (xG)	2.22 (better)
	Big chances
5.00	Shots on target	5.20 (better)
10.80	Total shots	16.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.20	Corners	5.40 (better)
41.0	Possession %	46.8 (better)
363	Passes	493 (better)
	Tackles
11.20	Fouls	10.20 (better)
1.60	Offsides	1.40 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.60 (better)	Yellow cards	1.75
0.33	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Monza wins: 0
Draws: 0
Atalanta wins: 1
Goals / game: 1.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Monza v Atalanta0–12026-11-08

Serie A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lazio	11	9	2	0	+16	29	Lazio won 4 of the last 5
2	Inter	11	9	1	1	+15	28	Inter won 4 of the last 5
3	AS Roma	11	8	3	0	+21	27	AS Roma won 4 of the last 5
4	AC Milan	11	7	3	1	+10	24	AC Milan won 4 of the last 5
5	Como	11	7	2	2	+8	23	Como won 4 of the last 5
6	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	+9	20	Frosinone won 3 of the last 5
7	Juventus	11	5	3	3	+3	18	Juventus won 2 of the last 5
8	Bologna	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Bologna won 4 of the last 5
9	Cagliari	11	5	1	5	-5	16	Cagliari won 1 of the last 5
10	Napoli	11	4	3	4	+4	15	Napoli won 1 of the last 5
11	Torino	11	4	2	5	-2	14	Torino won 2 of the last 5
12	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Atalanta won 1 of the last 5
13	Genoa	11	4	1	6	-5	13	Genoa won 3 of the last 5
14	Lecce	11	3	1	7	-10	10	Lecce won 1 of the last 5
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-8	9	Fiorentina won 1 of the last 5
16	Parma	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Parma won 1 of the last 5
17	Sassuolo	11	2	2	7	-13	8	Sassuolo won 0 of the last 5
18	Monza	11	2	1	8	-8	7	Monza won 1 of the last 5
19	Venezia	11	2	0	9	-13	6	Venezia won 2 of the last 5
20	Udinese	11	1	2	8	-13	5	Udinese won 0 of the last 5