AS Roma v Cagliari

3rd4–29th

19:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
AS Roma		Cagliari
20	Shots	19
8	Shots on target	8
7	Corners	8
8	Fouls	8
0	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	3
584	Passes	372
61%	Possession %	39%
2.96	xG	2.68

Over 1.5: 75%
Over 2.5: 50%
Over 3.5: 28%
Both score: 47%

Model pick: AS Roma 63%
Likely score: 1-0 13%
Expected goals: 1.88 – 0.78

Advised bets

Won

Free pick

AS Roma -0.75

1.42Bet365 · fair 1.32 · qualifies at 1.36+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back AS Roma -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.42 with Bet365 — AS Roma must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 58% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 88%; we judge it at 76%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.32. The offered 1.42 implies only 70%, so the price is 7.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: AS Roma 1.88, Cagliari 0.78.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	AS Roma	62.8%	1.59	1.37 Dafabet	73.0%	-10.1
Match result	Draw	22.7%	4.40	5.80 Dafabet	17.2%	+5.5
Match result	Cagliari	14.4%	6.92	10.00 Bet365	10.0%	+4.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	75.0%	1.33	1.25 Bet365	80.0%	-5.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	25.0%	4.00	4.50 Bet365	22.2%	+2.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	49.8%	2.01	1.75 Betfair	57.1%	-7.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	50.2%	1.99	2.30 Bet365	43.5%	+6.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	27.8%	3.60	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	-5.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	72.2%	1.39	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	+6.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	46.6%	2.15	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	+3.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	53.4%	1.87	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	-0.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

AS Roma favoured against Cagliari

Our model makes AS Roma 63% to win this Serie A fixture, with the draw at 23% and Cagliari at 14%. The goal projection is 1.88 for AS Roma against 0.78 for Cagliari — a commanding edge to AS Roma on expected output. A combined 2.67 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 47%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. AS Roma is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 37% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-0 13%; 2-0 12%; 1-1 11%; 2-1 10%; 3-0 8%

This season

Season records for AS Roma and Cagliari
AS Roma		Cagliari
11	Played	11
8-3-0	W-D-L	5-1-5
2.45	Pts / game	1.45
2.82	Goals for / game	0.91
0.91	Goals against / game	1.36
73%	Over 2.5	36%
45%	BTTS	36%
55%	Clean sheets	36%
9%	Failed to score	27%
5-1-0	Home record	2-1-2
3-2-0	Away record	3-0-3
W3	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. AS Roma · Cagliari

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.8	Shots	10.1
5.8	Shots on target	3.6
6.6	Corners	3.3
2.04	Cards	2.02
11.0	Fouls	13.6
55	Possession %	39
2.19	xG	1.28
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.4	Shots	18.9
4.8	Shots on target	6.7
3.8	Corners	7.9
1.38	Cards	1.29
8.5	Fouls	9.7
46	Possession %	61
1.64	xG	2.02
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
AS Roma	Metric	Cagliari
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
1.20	Goals conceded	1.20
1.48 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.34
	Big chances
4.60	Shots on target	4.60
14.00 (better)	Total shots	10.00
	Touches in opp. box
4.80 (better)	Corners	3.60
50.0 (better)	Possession %	39.8
483 (better)	Passes	399
	Tackles
13.40	Fouls	9.40 (better)
2.40 (better)	Offsides	2.80
	Throw-ins
2.60	Yellow cards	1.25 (better)
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

AS Roma wins: 2
Draws: 0
Cagliari wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

AS Roma v Cagliari4–22026-10-27
AS Roma v Cagliari2–02026-02-09
Cagliari v AS Roma1–02025-12-07

Serie A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lazio	11	9	2	0	+16	29	Lazio won 4 of the last 5
2	Inter	11	9	1	1	+15	28	Inter won 4 of the last 5
3	AS Roma	11	8	3	0	+21	27	AS Roma won 4 of the last 5
4	AC Milan	11	7	3	1	+10	24	AC Milan won 4 of the last 5
5	Como	11	7	2	2	+8	23	Como won 4 of the last 5
6	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	+9	20	Frosinone won 3 of the last 5
7	Juventus	11	5	3	3	+3	18	Juventus won 2 of the last 5
8	Bologna	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Bologna won 4 of the last 5
9	Cagliari	11	5	1	5	-5	16	Cagliari won 1 of the last 5
10	Napoli	11	4	3	4	+4	15	Napoli won 1 of the last 5
11	Torino	11	4	2	5	-2	14	Torino won 2 of the last 5
12	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Atalanta won 1 of the last 5
13	Genoa	11	4	1	6	-5	13	Genoa won 3 of the last 5
14	Lecce	11	3	1	7	-10	10	Lecce won 1 of the last 5
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-8	9	Fiorentina won 1 of the last 5
16	Parma	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Parma won 1 of the last 5
17	Sassuolo	11	2	2	7	-13	8	Sassuolo won 0 of the last 5
18	Monza	11	2	1	8	-8	7	Monza won 1 of the last 5
19	Venezia	11	2	0	9	-13	6	Venezia won 2 of the last 5
20	Udinese	11	1	2	8	-13	5	Udinese won 0 of the last 5