Venezia v Inter

19th0–22nd

17:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Venezia		Inter
12	Shots	16
4	Shots on target	2
3	Corners	6
5	Fouls	9
0	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
5	Offsides	2
362	Passes	683
34%	Possession %	66%
1.67	xG	2.39

Over 1.5: 89%
Over 2.5: 72%
Over 3.5: 52%
Both score: 69%

Model pick: Inter 58%
Likely score: 1-2 9%
Expected goals: 1.40 – 2.36

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 2.5	27.6%	3.62	3.50 BetVictor	28.6%	-0.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	51.7%	1.93	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-0.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	48.3%	2.07	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-4.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	68.5%	1.46	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	+6.8
Match result	Venezia	21.5%	4.66	9.00 Betano	11.1%	+10.4
Match result	Draw	20.0%	4.99	6.00 Dafabet	16.7%	+3.4
Match result	Inter	58.5%	1.71	1.44 Betano	69.4%	-11.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	89.2%	1.12	1.14 Betano	87.7%	+1.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	10.8%	9.30	8.00 Betfair	12.5%	-1.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	72.4%	1.38	1.44 Betano	69.4%	+2.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	31.5%	3.18	2.50 Betfair	40.0%	-8.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Inter favoured against Venezia

Our model makes Venezia 21% to win this Serie A fixture, with the draw at 20% and Inter at 59%. The goal projection is 1.40 for Venezia against 2.36 for Inter — a commanding edge to Inter on expected output. A combined 3.75 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 72% and both teams to score at 69%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-2 9%; 1-1 8%; 1-3 7%; 0-2 7%; 2-2 6%

This season

Season records for Venezia and Inter
Venezia		Inter
11	Played	11
2-0-9	W-D-L	9-1-1
0.55	Pts / game	2.55
0.73	Goals for / game	2.55
1.91	Goals against / game	1.18
36%	Over 2.5	73%
36%	BTTS	64%
9%	Clean sheets	36%
55%	Failed to score	0%
2-0-4	Home record	6-0-0
0-0-5	Away record	3-1-1
W1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Venezia · Inter

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.0	Shots	20.1
4.0	Shots on target	7.0
4.4	Corners	6.0
1.86	Cards	1.38
9.0	Fouls	11.1
44	Possession %	59
1.54	xG	2.57
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.9	Shots	9.4
5.4	Shots on target	3.3
6.4	Corners	2.1
0.91	Cards	1.63
8.6	Fouls	9.0
56	Possession %	41
1.66	xG	0.88
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Venezia	Metric	Inter
1.20	Goals scored	2.60 (better)
2.40	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
1.60	Expected goals (xG)	3.19 (better)
	Big chances
4.20	Shots on target	7.75 (better)
14.00	Total shots	20.50 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.60	Corners	3.75 (better)
53.2	Possession %	57.0 (better)
465	Passes	581 (better)
	Tackles
10.40	Fouls	9.25 (better)
2.20 (better)	Offsides	3.50
	Throw-ins
3.20	Yellow cards	2.67 (better)
0.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Venezia wins: 0
Draws: 0
Inter wins: 2
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 50%

Venezia v Inter0–22026-10-28
Inter v Venezia5–12025-12-03

Serie A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lazio	11	9	2	0	+16	29	Lazio won 4 of the last 5
2	Inter	11	9	1	1	+15	28	Inter won 4 of the last 5
3	AS Roma	11	8	3	0	+21	27	AS Roma won 4 of the last 5
4	AC Milan	11	7	3	1	+10	24	AC Milan won 4 of the last 5
5	Como	11	7	2	2	+8	23	Como won 4 of the last 5
6	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	+9	20	Frosinone won 3 of the last 5
7	Juventus	11	5	3	3	+3	18	Juventus won 2 of the last 5
8	Bologna	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Bologna won 4 of the last 5
9	Cagliari	11	5	1	5	-5	16	Cagliari won 1 of the last 5
10	Napoli	11	4	3	4	+4	15	Napoli won 1 of the last 5
11	Torino	11	4	2	5	-2	14	Torino won 2 of the last 5
12	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Atalanta won 1 of the last 5
13	Genoa	11	4	1	6	-5	13	Genoa won 3 of the last 5
14	Lecce	11	3	1	7	-10	10	Lecce won 1 of the last 5
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-8	9	Fiorentina won 1 of the last 5
16	Parma	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Parma won 1 of the last 5
17	Sassuolo	11	2	2	7	-13	8	Sassuolo won 0 of the last 5
18	Monza	11	2	1	8	-8	7	Monza won 1 of the last 5
19	Venezia	11	2	0	9	-13	6	Venezia won 2 of the last 5
20	Udinese	11	1	2	8	-13	5	Udinese won 0 of the last 5