AC Milan v Bologna

4th2–48th

17:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
AC Milan		Bologna
8	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	5
2	Corners	3
10	Fouls	16
0	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	1
668	Passes	338
66%	Possession %	34%
1.75	xG	1.89

Over 1.5: 74%
Over 2.5: 49%
Over 3.5: 27%
Both score: 51%

Model pick: AC Milan 52%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.63 – 0.99

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

AC Milan -0.5

1.65Betano · fair 1.50 · qualifies at 1.54+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back AC Milan -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.65 with Betano — AC Milan must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 52% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 77%; we judge it at 67%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.50. The offered 1.65 implies only 61%, so the price is 10.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: AC Milan 1.63, Bologna 0.99.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Over 2.5	48.7%	2.06	2.10 Bet365	47.6%	+1.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	51.3%	1.95	2.02 Betano	49.5%	+1.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	26.8%	3.73	3.80 BetVictor	26.3%	+0.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	73.2%	1.37	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	+1.7
Match result	AC Milan	51.8%	1.93	1.78 Betano	56.2%	-4.4
Match result	Draw	25.9%	3.87	4.10 Dafabet	24.4%	+1.5
Match result	Bologna	22.3%	4.48	5.50 Bet365	18.2%	+4.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	74.2%	1.35	1.36 Betano	73.5%	+0.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	25.8%	3.88	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	+1.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	51.1%	1.96	1.95 William Hill	51.3%	-0.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	48.9%	2.04	2.05 Betano	48.8%	+0.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

AC Milan favoured against Bologna

Our model makes AC Milan 52% to win this Serie A fixture, with the draw at 26% and Bologna at 22%. The goal projection is 1.63 for AC Milan against 0.99 for Bologna — a substantial edge to AC Milan on expected output. A combined 2.62 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-0 11%; 2-0 10%; 2-1 10%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for AC Milan and Bologna
AC Milan		Bologna
11	Played	11
7-3-1	W-D-L	5-2-4
2.18	Pts / game	1.55
2.09	Goals for / game	1.45
1.18	Goals against / game	1.27
64%	Over 2.5	55%
73%	BTTS	64%
27%	Clean sheets	9%
0%	Failed to score	27%
4-0-1	Home record	1-2-2
3-3-0	Away record	4-0-2
W2	Streak	W4

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. AC Milan · Bologna

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.3	Shots	12.4
4.6	Shots on target	4.6
2.6	Corners	4.4
1.86	Cards	2.00
9.6	Fouls	12.4
59	Possession %	46
1.81	xG	1.64
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.1	Shots	11.6
4.9	Shots on target	3.6
4.3	Corners	4.8
1.43	Cards	2.42
13.3	Fouls	15.0
41	Possession %	54
1.23	xG	1.55
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
AC Milan	Metric	Bologna
2.20 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
2.07 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.21
	Big chances
6.00 (better)	Shots on target	3.40
12.80 (better)	Total shots	11.40
	Touches in opp. box
4.20 (better)	Corners	3.20
58.4 (better)	Possession %	44.4
595 (better)	Passes	395
	Tackles
9.80 (better)	Fouls	11.60
1.40 (better)	Offsides	2.40
	Throw-ins
1.40 (better)	Yellow cards	2.00
0.50	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

AC Milan wins: 2
Draws: 0
Bologna wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 33%

AC Milan v Bologna2–42026-10-28
Bologna v AC Milan0–32026-02-03
AC Milan v Bologna1–02025-09-14

Serie A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lazio	11	9	2	0	+16	29	Lazio won 4 of the last 5
2	Inter	11	9	1	1	+15	28	Inter won 4 of the last 5
3	AS Roma	11	8	3	0	+21	27	AS Roma won 4 of the last 5
4	AC Milan	11	7	3	1	+10	24	AC Milan won 4 of the last 5
5	Como	11	7	2	2	+8	23	Como won 4 of the last 5
6	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	+9	20	Frosinone won 3 of the last 5
7	Juventus	11	5	3	3	+3	18	Juventus won 2 of the last 5
8	Bologna	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Bologna won 4 of the last 5
9	Cagliari	11	5	1	5	-5	16	Cagliari won 1 of the last 5
10	Napoli	11	4	3	4	+4	15	Napoli won 1 of the last 5
11	Torino	11	4	2	5	-2	14	Torino won 2 of the last 5
12	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Atalanta won 1 of the last 5
13	Genoa	11	4	1	6	-5	13	Genoa won 3 of the last 5
14	Lecce	11	3	1	7	-10	10	Lecce won 1 of the last 5
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-8	9	Fiorentina won 1 of the last 5
16	Parma	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Parma won 1 of the last 5
17	Sassuolo	11	2	2	7	-13	8	Sassuolo won 0 of the last 5
18	Monza	11	2	1	8	-8	7	Monza won 1 of the last 5
19	Venezia	11	2	0	9	-13	6	Venezia won 2 of the last 5
20	Udinese	11	1	2	8	-13	5	Udinese won 0 of the last 5